2008年初贵州电线积冰厚度的模拟研究——基于天气研究和预报(WRF)模式耦合电线积冰预报系统
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摘要
电线积冰事故对国民经济危害巨大,急需电线积冰厚度的预报产品。利用耦合了欧洲导线覆冰预报系统的天气研究和预报(WRF)模式,在考虑了覆冰融化的基础上,对2008年1～2月贵州省凝冻天气期间的电线覆冰厚度进行了模拟研究,研究结果表明:WRF模式模拟的气象要素与观测值较为接近,可用模拟的气象场对贵州省导线覆冰进行模拟;模拟站点覆冰厚度的时间变化特征与观测结果非常接近,区域覆冰厚度的时空变化可分为4个阶段:覆冰初步形成期、持续期、加重期及融化期。对比观测站点的覆冰记录,模拟基本重现2008年1～2月贵州省导线覆冰的变化过程;模拟的区域覆冰极值厚度分布也与观测值的相关系数达到0. 6,通过了0. 01的信度检验。该系统能对覆冰的发生、发展及进程进行较为准确的预报,对输电线路上的冰冻灾害防治具有重要意义。
The accident of wire icing is very harmful to social economy,and the forecast production of wire icing thickness is urgent needed at present. Based on the weather research and forecasting( WRF) model coupled with the ice acceleration forecast system form Europe and considering melting process of icing,a simulation study was conducted on the transmission line icing thickness during the frozen weather in Guizhou province from January to February 2008. The results show as follows. The meteorological data simulated by WRF model are close to the observed records,and can be used to simulate the icing condition of transmission lines. The time variation of ice thickness at the simulated site is consistent with the observation results. The spatial and temporal variation of ice thickness in Guizhou province can be divided into four stages: preliminary formation,continuous,aggravation and melting process. Compared with ice records of observation stations,the change process of wire icing in Guizhou province from January to February 2008 was well simulated. The correlation coefficient of the simulated extreme ice thickness and the observed records in Guizhou province was up to 0. 6,which passed the reliability test of 0. 01. In general,the ice acceleration forecast system can accurately forecast the occurrence,development and progress of ice thickness,which is of great significance for the prevention and control of freezing disaster on transmission line.
The accident of wire icing is very harmful to social economy,and the forecast production of wire icing thickness is urgent needed at present. Based on the weather research and forecasting( WRF) model coupled with the ice acceleration forecast system form Europe and considering melting process of icing,a simulation study was conducted on the transmission line icing thickness during the frozen weather in Guizhou province from January to February 2008. The results show as follows. The meteorological data simulated by WRF model are close to the observed records,and can be used to simulate the icing condition of transmission lines. The time variation of ice thickness at the simulated site is consistent with the observation results. The spatial and temporal variation of ice thickness in Guizhou province can be divided into four stages: preliminary formation,continuous,aggravation and melting process. Compared with ice records of observation stations,the change process of wire icing in Guizhou province from January to February 2008 was well simulated. The correlation coefficient of the simulated extreme ice thickness and the observed records in Guizhou province was up to 0. 6,which passed the reliability test of 0. 01. In general,the ice acceleration forecast system can accurately forecast the occurrence,development and progress of ice thickness,which is of great significance for the prevention and control of freezing disaster on transmission line.
引文
1丁一汇,王遵娅,宋亚芳,等.中国南方2008年1月罕见低温雨雪冰冻灾害发生的原因及其与气候变暖的关系[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):808-825Ding Yihui,Wang Zunya,Song Yafang,et al. Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming[J]. Acta Meteorological Sinica,2008,66(5):808-825
2 彭赤,罗洪,黄欢,等.贵州导线覆冰的类型与分布特征[J].南方电网技术,2015,9(4):84-89Peng Chi,Luo Hong,Huang Huan,et al. Classification and distribution characteristics of ice coating on wires in Guizhou[J]. Southern Power System Technology,2015,9(4):84-89
3 王宇,乔琪,杨秀庄. 2008年年初贵州省罕见冰冻灾害过程简析[J].贵州气象,2008,32(6):16-17Wang Yu,Qiao Qi,Yang Xiuzhuang. A brief analysis of rare frozen disaster in Guizhou province in early 2008[J]. Journey of Guizhou Meteorology,2008,32(6):16-17
4 唐延婧,宋丹. 2008年初贵州低温雨雪凝冻灾害天气成因分析[J].气象科学,2008,28(增刊1):78-83Tang Yanjing,Song Dan. Analysis of Guizhou's rare steady weather process of low temperature with snow and congelation[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2008,28(S1):78-83
5 王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(2):63-67Wang Zunya,Zhang Qiang,Chen Yu,et al. Characters of meteorological disasters caused by the extreme synoptic process in early 2008over China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(2):63-67
6 赵思雄,孙建华. 2008年初南方雨雪冰冻天气的环流场与多尺度特征[J].气候与环境研究,2008(4):351-367Zhao Sixiong,Sun Jianhua. Multi-scale systems and conceptual model on freezing rain and snow storm over Southern China during January to February 2008[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008(4):351-367
7 高守亭,张昕,王瑾,等.贵州冻雨形成的环境场条件及其预报方法[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):645-655Gao Shouting,Zhang Xin,Wang Jin,et al. The environmental field and ensemble forecast method for the formation of freezing rain over Guizhou Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):645-655
8 张昕,高守亭,王瑾. 2008年1月贵州冻雨的数值模拟和层结结构分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):368-377Zhang Xin,Gao Shouting,Wang Jin. Numerical simulation and stratification structure analysis of freezing rain event in Guizhou in January2008[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(2):368-377
9 陶玥,史月琴,刘卫国. 2008年1月南方一次冰冻天气中冻雨区的层结和云物理特征[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):507-522Tao Yue,Shi Yueqin,Liu Weiguo. Characteristics of stratification structure and cloud physics of the freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(3):507-522
10 李登文,杨静,吴兴洋. 2008年低温冰冻雨雪灾害天气过程中贵州电线积冰气象条件分析[J].气象,2011,37(2):161-169Li Dengwen,Yang Jing,Wu Xingyang. Discussion on genesis of wire icing in Guizhou during the freezing rain and snow storm in January 2008[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(2):161-169
11 唐延婧,宋丹,廖波,等.贵州省积冰变化的气象特征[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):867-875Tang Yanjing,Song Dan,Liao Bo,et al. The meteorological characters of icing change in Guizhou Province[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):867-875
12 Pytlak P,Musilek P,Lozowski E,et al. Evolutionary optimization of an ice accretion forecasting system[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2010,138(7):2913-2329
13 Thompson G,Rasmussen R M,Manning K. Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme.Part I:Description and sensitivity analysis[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2004,132(2):519-542
14 周悦.电线积冰形成机理研究:观测和模拟[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012Zhou Yue. Study on formation machanism of ice accrelation on wires:Observations and simulations[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing Unversity of Information Science and Technology,2012
15 Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al. Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,1997,102(D14):16663-16682
16 Dudhia J. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1989,46(20):3077-3107
17 Monin A S,Obukhov A M. Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere[J]. Trudy Geofizicheskogo Instituta,Akademiya Nauk SSSR,1954,24(151):163-187
18 Niu G Y,Yang Z L,Mitchell K E,et al. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP):1.Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2011,116:D12109
19 Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J. A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(9):2318-2341
20 Musilek P,Dan A,Lozowski E P. An ice accretion forecasting system(IAFS)for power transmission lines using numerical weather prediction[J]. SOLA,2009(5):25-28
21 Zarnani A,Musilek P,Shi X,et al. Learning to predict ice accretion on electric power lines[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2012,25(3):609-617
22 Ramer J. An empirical technique for diagnosing precipitation type from model output[C]//Proceedings of the International Conference on Aviation Weather Systems. Boston:American Meteorological Society,1993
23 Jones K F. A simple model for freezing rain ice loads[J]. Atmospheric Research,1998,46(1-2):87-97
24 邓芳萍,康丽莉,姜瑜君,等.基于常规气象资料的小时标准冰厚模型及验证[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):142-156Deng Fangping,Kang Lili,Jiang Yujun,et al. An hourly standard ice thickness model using conventional meteorological data with its Validation[J]. Journey of Applied Meteorological Science,2017,28(2):142-156
25 Farzaneh M,Savadjiev K. Statistical analysis of field data for precipitation icing accretion on overhead power lines[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2005,20(2):1080-1087
26 吴哲红,陈贞宏,白慧. 2011年与2008年贵州低温雨雪冰冻天气锋区特征对比[J].干旱气象,2013,31(4):763-770Wu Zhehong,Chen Zhenhong,Bai Hui. Comparative analysis on the frontal zone feature of two freezing rain and snow weather processes in 2008 and 2011 in Guizhou Province[J]. Arid Meteorology,2013,31(4):763-770
27 池再香,杜正静,龙先菊,等. 2008年初贵州冰冻天气锋生场诊断分析[J].气象科技,2010,38(5):558-564Chi Zaixiang,Du Zhengjing,Long Xianju,et al. Analysis of frontogenesis field for early 2008 frozen weather in Guizhou province[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2010,38(5):558-564
28 孙建华,赵思雄. 2008年初南方雨雪冰冻灾害天气静止锋与层结结构分析[J].气候与环境研究,2008(4):368-384Sun Jianhua,Zhao Sixiong. Quasi-stationary front and stratification structure of the freezing rain and snow storm over southern China in January 2008[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008(4):368-384
29 Bezrukova N A,Jeck R K,Khalili M F,et al. Some statistics of freezing precipitation and rime for the territory of the former USSR from ground-based weather observations[J]. Atmospheric Research,2006,82(1-2):203-221
30 陈百炼,吴战平,张艳梅,等.贵州冬季电线积冰及其天气成因分析[J].气象,2014,40(3):355-363Chen Bailian,Wu Zhanping,Zhang Yanmei,et al. Analysis on wires icing and its weather conditions in Guizhou province[J].2014,40(3):355-363
31 贵州省气象局. 2008年贵州特大凝冻灾害[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:1-19Guizhou Meteorological Administration. Guizhou massive freezing rain disaster in 2008[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2009:1-19
2 彭赤,罗洪,黄欢,等.贵州导线覆冰的类型与分布特征[J].南方电网技术,2015,9(4):84-89Peng Chi,Luo Hong,Huang Huan,et al. Classification and distribution characteristics of ice coating on wires in Guizhou[J]. Southern Power System Technology,2015,9(4):84-89
3 王宇,乔琪,杨秀庄. 2008年年初贵州省罕见冰冻灾害过程简析[J].贵州气象,2008,32(6):16-17Wang Yu,Qiao Qi,Yang Xiuzhuang. A brief analysis of rare frozen disaster in Guizhou province in early 2008[J]. Journey of Guizhou Meteorology,2008,32(6):16-17
4 唐延婧,宋丹. 2008年初贵州低温雨雪凝冻灾害天气成因分析[J].气象科学,2008,28(增刊1):78-83Tang Yanjing,Song Dan. Analysis of Guizhou's rare steady weather process of low temperature with snow and congelation[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2008,28(S1):78-83
5 王遵娅,张强,陈峪,等. 2008年初我国低温雨雪冰冻灾害的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(2):63-67Wang Zunya,Zhang Qiang,Chen Yu,et al. Characters of meteorological disasters caused by the extreme synoptic process in early 2008over China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(2):63-67
6 赵思雄,孙建华. 2008年初南方雨雪冰冻天气的环流场与多尺度特征[J].气候与环境研究,2008(4):351-367Zhao Sixiong,Sun Jianhua. Multi-scale systems and conceptual model on freezing rain and snow storm over Southern China during January to February 2008[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008(4):351-367
7 高守亭,张昕,王瑾,等.贵州冻雨形成的环境场条件及其预报方法[J].大气科学,2014,38(4):645-655Gao Shouting,Zhang Xin,Wang Jin,et al. The environmental field and ensemble forecast method for the formation of freezing rain over Guizhou Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2014,38(4):645-655
8 张昕,高守亭,王瑾. 2008年1月贵州冻雨的数值模拟和层结结构分析[J].高原气象,2015,34(2):368-377Zhang Xin,Gao Shouting,Wang Jin. Numerical simulation and stratification structure analysis of freezing rain event in Guizhou in January2008[J]. Plateau Meteorology,2015,34(2):368-377
9 陶玥,史月琴,刘卫国. 2008年1月南方一次冰冻天气中冻雨区的层结和云物理特征[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):507-522Tao Yue,Shi Yueqin,Liu Weiguo. Characteristics of stratification structure and cloud physics of the freezing rain over southern China in January 2008[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(3):507-522
10 李登文,杨静,吴兴洋. 2008年低温冰冻雨雪灾害天气过程中贵州电线积冰气象条件分析[J].气象,2011,37(2):161-169Li Dengwen,Yang Jing,Wu Xingyang. Discussion on genesis of wire icing in Guizhou during the freezing rain and snow storm in January 2008[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(2):161-169
11 唐延婧,宋丹,廖波,等.贵州省积冰变化的气象特征[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):867-875Tang Yanjing,Song Dan,Liao Bo,et al. The meteorological characters of icing change in Guizhou Province[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2015,37(4):867-875
12 Pytlak P,Musilek P,Lozowski E,et al. Evolutionary optimization of an ice accretion forecasting system[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2010,138(7):2913-2329
13 Thompson G,Rasmussen R M,Manning K. Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme.Part I:Description and sensitivity analysis[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2004,132(2):519-542
14 周悦.电线积冰形成机理研究:观测和模拟[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012Zhou Yue. Study on formation machanism of ice accrelation on wires:Observations and simulations[D]. Nanjing:Nanjing Unversity of Information Science and Technology,2012
15 Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,Brown P D,et al. Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the longwave[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,1997,102(D14):16663-16682
16 Dudhia J. Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1989,46(20):3077-3107
17 Monin A S,Obukhov A M. Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere[J]. Trudy Geofizicheskogo Instituta,Akademiya Nauk SSSR,1954,24(151):163-187
18 Niu G Y,Yang Z L,Mitchell K E,et al. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options(Noah-MP):1.Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2011,116:D12109
19 Hong S Y,Noh Y,Dudhia J. A new vertical diffusion package with an explicit treatment of entrainment processes[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2006,134(9):2318-2341
20 Musilek P,Dan A,Lozowski E P. An ice accretion forecasting system(IAFS)for power transmission lines using numerical weather prediction[J]. SOLA,2009(5):25-28
21 Zarnani A,Musilek P,Shi X,et al. Learning to predict ice accretion on electric power lines[J]. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence,2012,25(3):609-617
22 Ramer J. An empirical technique for diagnosing precipitation type from model output[C]//Proceedings of the International Conference on Aviation Weather Systems. Boston:American Meteorological Society,1993
23 Jones K F. A simple model for freezing rain ice loads[J]. Atmospheric Research,1998,46(1-2):87-97
24 邓芳萍,康丽莉,姜瑜君,等.基于常规气象资料的小时标准冰厚模型及验证[J].应用气象学报,2017,28(2):142-156Deng Fangping,Kang Lili,Jiang Yujun,et al. An hourly standard ice thickness model using conventional meteorological data with its Validation[J]. Journey of Applied Meteorological Science,2017,28(2):142-156
25 Farzaneh M,Savadjiev K. Statistical analysis of field data for precipitation icing accretion on overhead power lines[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2005,20(2):1080-1087
26 吴哲红,陈贞宏,白慧. 2011年与2008年贵州低温雨雪冰冻天气锋区特征对比[J].干旱气象,2013,31(4):763-770Wu Zhehong,Chen Zhenhong,Bai Hui. Comparative analysis on the frontal zone feature of two freezing rain and snow weather processes in 2008 and 2011 in Guizhou Province[J]. Arid Meteorology,2013,31(4):763-770
27 池再香,杜正静,龙先菊,等. 2008年初贵州冰冻天气锋生场诊断分析[J].气象科技,2010,38(5):558-564Chi Zaixiang,Du Zhengjing,Long Xianju,et al. Analysis of frontogenesis field for early 2008 frozen weather in Guizhou province[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2010,38(5):558-564
28 孙建华,赵思雄. 2008年初南方雨雪冰冻灾害天气静止锋与层结结构分析[J].气候与环境研究,2008(4):368-384Sun Jianhua,Zhao Sixiong. Quasi-stationary front and stratification structure of the freezing rain and snow storm over southern China in January 2008[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2008(4):368-384
29 Bezrukova N A,Jeck R K,Khalili M F,et al. Some statistics of freezing precipitation and rime for the territory of the former USSR from ground-based weather observations[J]. Atmospheric Research,2006,82(1-2):203-221
30 陈百炼,吴战平,张艳梅,等.贵州冬季电线积冰及其天气成因分析[J].气象,2014,40(3):355-363Chen Bailian,Wu Zhanping,Zhang Yanmei,et al. Analysis on wires icing and its weather conditions in Guizhou province[J].2014,40(3):355-363
31 贵州省气象局. 2008年贵州特大凝冻灾害[M].北京:气象出版社,2009:1-19Guizhou Meteorological Administration. Guizhou massive freezing rain disaster in 2008[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2009:1-19