广东能源与电源发展战略研究
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摘要
[目的]广东能源资源储量匮乏,能源自给率低,用能成本高昂。随着经济发展进入新常态,产业结构不断升级,广东能源和电源发展将面临新的形势和挑战。文章旨在加强广东能源供应保障能力,降低用能成本,提高非化石能源消费比重,优化电源结构。[方法]在研判广东能源发展定位的基础上,科学、合理地对广东"十三五"及中长期能源、电力需求进行预测,采用了能源、电力平衡计算方法;同时根据不同电源品种特点,分析了广东电源发展模式,确定了未来广东能源、电力缺口,提出了能源和电源发展战略。[结果]研究表明:广东远期能源发展应以保供应、调结构为主,广东近期能源发展应以控总量、促清洁为主;同时提出了低碳、经济、高灵活性、综合等4个2030年广东电源发展模式,各方案均能够满足广东电力缺额,燃料供应能力、环保空间、厂址资源均能够支撑电源建设要求,最后推荐了综合电源发展模式。[结论]研究成果为广东省能源主管部门提供参考。
[Introduction]Energy resource in Guangdong is scanty. Energy self-sufficiency ratio is low. And cost of energy is very high. With the increase of economic development and change of industrial structure,energy and source development will face new situation and challenge. The purpose of this article is to strengthen energy supply support capability,reduce energy cost,increase the rate of non-fossil source and optimize source structure. [Method] This paper analyzed the present position of energy development,and forecasted the need of energy and electric power in the future with the scientific and reasonable methods. The method of calculation of energy and power balance was applied. We confirmed the lack of energy and power. Also this paper focused on the way and position of energy and source development strategy with the characters of different energy and source varieties. [Result] The result shows that in long-term period Guangdong energy development should ensure supplies and adjust structure,and in short-term period it should control total and promote clean development. Four source modes in 2030 are proposed,which are low-carbon mode,ecnomic mode,high flexible mode and comprehensive mode. All modes could satisfy the lack of energy and power. And fuel supply capability,environmental protection space and site resource could support the need of source development. By comparison this paper recommends the comprehensive mode. [Conclusion]The research is the reference for Guangdong government.
[Introduction]Energy resource in Guangdong is scanty. Energy self-sufficiency ratio is low. And cost of energy is very high. With the increase of economic development and change of industrial structure,energy and source development will face new situation and challenge. The purpose of this article is to strengthen energy supply support capability,reduce energy cost,increase the rate of non-fossil source and optimize source structure. [Method] This paper analyzed the present position of energy development,and forecasted the need of energy and electric power in the future with the scientific and reasonable methods. The method of calculation of energy and power balance was applied. We confirmed the lack of energy and power. Also this paper focused on the way and position of energy and source development strategy with the characters of different energy and source varieties. [Result] The result shows that in long-term period Guangdong energy development should ensure supplies and adjust structure,and in short-term period it should control total and promote clean development. Four source modes in 2030 are proposed,which are low-carbon mode,ecnomic mode,high flexible mode and comprehensive mode. All modes could satisfy the lack of energy and power. And fuel supply capability,environmental protection space and site resource could support the need of source development. By comparison this paper recommends the comprehensive mode. [Conclusion]The research is the reference for Guangdong government.
引文
[1]广东省统计局.广东统计年鉴[M].北京中国统计出版社,2016.
[2]国家统计局能源司.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[3]匡耀求.广东能源消费碳排放趋势与前景展望[J].南方能源建设,2015,2(1):1-10.KUANG Y Q.Trend and outlook of carbon emission from energy consumption in Guangdong Province,China[J].Southern Energy Construction,2015,2(1):1-10.
[4]徐枫,唐镭.节能减排背景下广东能源结构优化及对策研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(15):233-239.XU F,TANG L.Research on optimization of energy structure and countermeasures in Guangdong Province under the background of energy conservation and emission reduction[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2015,35(15):233-239.
[5]黎灿兵,梁锦照.电网差异化规划新方法[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(24):11-15.LI C B,LIANG J Z.A novel method of power grid differential planning[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(24):11-15.
[6]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.能源发展“十三五”规划[R].北京:中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,2016.
[7]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.电力发展“十三五”规划[R].北京:中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,2016.
[8]董超,卢恩,谭力强,等.基于电源特性优化协调的广东电网调峰策略[J].广东电力,2016,29(1):41-44+107.DONG C,LU E,TAN L Q,et al.Peak regulation strategy for Guangdong power grid based on optimization and coordination of power source characteristic[J].Guangdong Power,2016,29(1):41-44+107.
[9]刘云,郭经韬,王一钧.南方五省区电源发展形势及对策分析[J].中外能源,2015,20(2):14-17.LIU Y,GUO J T,WANG Y J.Power source development in five southern provinces and countermeasures[J].Sino-Global Energy,2015,20(2):14-17.
[10]郑秀波,刘云,孙景强.广东电网核电机组调峰分析[J].电力技术,2010,19(增刊2):82-85+81.ZHENG X B,LIU Y,SUN J Q.The peak load regulation of nuclear power plants in Guangdong power grid[J].Electric Power Technology,2010,19(Supp.2):82-85+81.
(1)1 tce(1吨标准煤当量)=29. 271 GJ。
[2]国家统计局能源司.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[3]匡耀求.广东能源消费碳排放趋势与前景展望[J].南方能源建设,2015,2(1):1-10.KUANG Y Q.Trend and outlook of carbon emission from energy consumption in Guangdong Province,China[J].Southern Energy Construction,2015,2(1):1-10.
[4]徐枫,唐镭.节能减排背景下广东能源结构优化及对策研究[J].科技管理研究,2015,35(15):233-239.XU F,TANG L.Research on optimization of energy structure and countermeasures in Guangdong Province under the background of energy conservation and emission reduction[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2015,35(15):233-239.
[5]黎灿兵,梁锦照.电网差异化规划新方法[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(24):11-15.LI C B,LIANG J Z.A novel method of power grid differential planning[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(24):11-15.
[6]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.能源发展“十三五”规划[R].北京:中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,2016.
[7]中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会.电力发展“十三五”规划[R].北京:中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,2016.
[8]董超,卢恩,谭力强,等.基于电源特性优化协调的广东电网调峰策略[J].广东电力,2016,29(1):41-44+107.DONG C,LU E,TAN L Q,et al.Peak regulation strategy for Guangdong power grid based on optimization and coordination of power source characteristic[J].Guangdong Power,2016,29(1):41-44+107.
[9]刘云,郭经韬,王一钧.南方五省区电源发展形势及对策分析[J].中外能源,2015,20(2):14-17.LIU Y,GUO J T,WANG Y J.Power source development in five southern provinces and countermeasures[J].Sino-Global Energy,2015,20(2):14-17.
[10]郑秀波,刘云,孙景强.广东电网核电机组调峰分析[J].电力技术,2010,19(增刊2):82-85+81.ZHENG X B,LIU Y,SUN J Q.The peak load regulation of nuclear power plants in Guangdong power grid[J].Electric Power Technology,2010,19(Supp.2):82-85+81.
(1)1 tce(1吨标准煤当量)=29. 271 GJ。