中国粮食自给率研究——粮食、谷物和口粮自给率分析
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摘要
由于统计口径与计算方法的不同,粮食自给率的计算结果往往差异较大,得出的中国粮食安全的结论也大相径庭,从而引起国内各界的广泛争议。为了准确分析当前中国的粮食安全情势,避免误判对相关决策造成误导,有必要对粮食的统计口径和自给率计算方法进行分析研究。本文选用三种粮食自给率计算方法—定额统计法、流向统计法和消费统计法,测算中国2000-2016年的粮食、谷物和口粮自给率,并对结果进行对比分析。结果显示:(1)定额统计法计算结果容易造成失真,流向统计法与消费统计法计算结果较为准确;(2)谷物和口粮自给率更能反映中国实际的粮食供需情况;(3)中国谷物自给率在98%以上,口粮自给率高于100%。然而,随着工业化和城市化进程的加快,城市发展对土地的需求越来越大,这会造成耕地被侵占、粮食需求激增等严重问题,口粮生产仍然不能放松,建议未来调整农业结构,稳定小麦、稻米生产。
Due to the difference of statistic standarda and calculation methods, the results of grain self-sufficiency rate were generally quite different and the assessment of the grain security situation in China varied greatly, which aroused great controversy. In order to accurately analyze the grain security situation of China to avoid misleading the relevant decisions, it is necessary to study the grain statistical data sources and the calculation methods of grain self-sufficiency rate. In this work, three commonly used methods, which were the stint counting method, the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method, were used to estimate and analyze the grain, cereal grain and edible grain self-sufficiency rate in China during 2000-2016. The results were as follows:(1) The stint counting method would cause distortion in the results, while the results provided by the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method were more accurate.(2) The cereal grain and edible grain selfsufficiency rates could report the actual grain supply demand relations.(3) The self-sufficiency rate of cereal grain was greater than 98%, and that of edible grain was greater than 100%.However, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, city development demand for more land which would cause serious problems such as embezzlement of cultivated land and soaring grain demand, so grain production still should not be slackened in China. It is suggested that the agricultural structure should be adjusted in the future to stabilize the production of wheat and rice.
Due to the difference of statistic standarda and calculation methods, the results of grain self-sufficiency rate were generally quite different and the assessment of the grain security situation in China varied greatly, which aroused great controversy. In order to accurately analyze the grain security situation of China to avoid misleading the relevant decisions, it is necessary to study the grain statistical data sources and the calculation methods of grain self-sufficiency rate. In this work, three commonly used methods, which were the stint counting method, the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method, were used to estimate and analyze the grain, cereal grain and edible grain self-sufficiency rate in China during 2000-2016. The results were as follows:(1) The stint counting method would cause distortion in the results, while the results provided by the flow statistics method and the consumption statistics method were more accurate.(2) The cereal grain and edible grain selfsufficiency rates could report the actual grain supply demand relations.(3) The self-sufficiency rate of cereal grain was greater than 98%, and that of edible grain was greater than 100%.However, with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, city development demand for more land which would cause serious problems such as embezzlement of cultivated land and soaring grain demand, so grain production still should not be slackened in China. It is suggested that the agricultural structure should be adjusted in the future to stabilize the production of wheat and rice.
引文
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[15]廖永松.中国到底消费多少粮.2012-02-27.http://www.zgxcfx.com/Article/42490.html.[LIAO Y S.How much grain is consumed in China?.2012-02-27.http://www.zgxcfx.com/Article/42490.html.]
[16]成升魁,李云云,刘晓洁,等.关于新时代我国粮食安全观的思考.自然资源学报,2018,33(6):911-926.[CHENG SK,LI Y Y,LIU X J,et al.Thoughts on food security in China in the new period.Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(6):911-926.]
[17]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉,等.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.[XIE G D,CHENG S K,XIAO Y,et al.The balance between grain supply and demand and the reconstruction of China's food security strategy in the new period.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):895-903.]
[18]陈香玉.提高中国粮食自给率的形势分析及政策建议.安徽农业科学,2014,42(35):12695-12697.[CHENG X Y.Situation analysis and policy recommendations on improving China's grain self-sufficient rate in China.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2014,42(35):12695-12697.]
[2]尚强民.关于粮食自给率的讨论:兼析粮食供求形势新变化.中国粮食经济,2013,(10):15-18.[SHANG Q M.Discussion on the grain self-sufficiency to analyze the new change of grain supply and demand situation.China Grain Economy,2013,(10):15-18.]
[3]郭燕枝,郭静利,王秀东.试比较我国粮食自给率和谷物自给率.农业经济,2008,(1):22-24.[GUO Y Z,GUO J L,WANG X D.Comparison of grain self-sufficiency rate and cereal self-sufficiency rate in China.Agricultural Economy,2008,(1):22-24.]
[4]姜长云,李显戈,董欢.关于我国粮食安全与粮食政策问题的思考:基于谷物自给率与日、韩相关经验的借鉴.宏观经济研究,2014,(3):3-10.[JIANG C Y,LI X G,DONG H.Study on the grain security and grain policy in China based on cereal self-sufficiency rate and reference of relevant experience in Japan and Korea.Macroeconomics,2014,(3):3-10.]
[5]郭修平.中国粮食自给率波动分析与粮食安全的保障.中国农机化学报,2016,37(5):258-263.[GUO X P.Analysis on grain self-sufficiency rate and protection of food security in China.Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2016,37(5):258-263.]
[6]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2000-2016.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2000-2016.]
[7]国家统计局,农村社会经济调查司.中国农村统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2000-2016.[Department of Rural Surveys,National Statistics of China.China Rural Statistical Yearbook.Beijing:China Statistics Press,2000-2016.]
[8]EXPORTS U S R,EXPORTS C V F A.Grain:World markets and trade.Usda Foreign Agricultural Service Gain Report,2000-2016.
[9]中华人民共和国农业部.农业行业标准-肉牛饲养标准NY/T815-2004.中华人民共和国农业部,2004.[The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China.Agricultural industry criteria-Feed standard of beef NY/T 815-2004.The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China,2004.]
[10]中华人民共和国农业部.农业行业标准-肉羊饲养标准NY/T816-2004.中华人民共和国农业部,2004.[The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China.Agricultural industry criteria-Feed standard of sheep NY/T 816-2004.The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China,2004.]
[11]中华人民共和国农业部.农业行业标准-猪饲养标准NY/T65-2004.中华人民共和国农业部,2004.[The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China.Agricultural industry criteria-Feed standard of pig NY/T 65-2004.The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China,2004.]
[12]中华人民共和国农业部.农业行业标准-奶牛饲养标准NY/T34-2004.中华人民共和国农业部,2004.[The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China.Agricultural industry criteria-Feed standard of cow NY/T 34-2004.The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China,2004.]
[13]中华人民共和国农业部.农业行业标准-鸡饲养标准NY/T33-2004.中华人民共和国农业部,2004.[The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China.Agricultural industry criteria-Feed standard of chicken NY/T 33-2004.The Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China,2004.]
[14]XU Z,ZHANG W,LI M.China's Grain Production:A Decade of Consecutive Growth or Stagnation?.2014-05-01.https://monthlyreview.org/2014/05/01/chinas-grain-production/.
[15]廖永松.中国到底消费多少粮.2012-02-27.http://www.zgxcfx.com/Article/42490.html.[LIAO Y S.How much grain is consumed in China?.2012-02-27.http://www.zgxcfx.com/Article/42490.html.]
[16]成升魁,李云云,刘晓洁,等.关于新时代我国粮食安全观的思考.自然资源学报,2018,33(6):911-926.[CHENG SK,LI Y Y,LIU X J,et al.Thoughts on food security in China in the new period.Journal of Natural Resources,2018,33(6):911-926.]
[17]谢高地,成升魁,肖玉,等.新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构.自然资源学报,2017,32(6):895-903.[XIE G D,CHENG S K,XIAO Y,et al.The balance between grain supply and demand and the reconstruction of China's food security strategy in the new period.Journal of Natural Resources,2017,32(6):895-903.]
[18]陈香玉.提高中国粮食自给率的形势分析及政策建议.安徽农业科学,2014,42(35):12695-12697.[CHENG X Y.Situation analysis and policy recommendations on improving China's grain self-sufficient rate in China.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2014,42(35):12695-12697.]