基于ISM和AHP的燃气管道完整性影响因素研究
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摘要
针对燃气管道完整性影响因素众多、关系复杂且结构不清的特点,采用解释结构模型(ISM)方法,通过可达矩阵对影响燃气管道完整性的24个因素进行定量描述,将燃气管道完整性影响因素分为7级,并划分层次和关联关系,为城镇燃气管道完整性管理提供理论依据。基于解释结构模型确定的燃气管道完整性表层影响因素,通过层次分析法(AHP)对各表层影响因素的影响力进行计算。在表层影响因素中,管网因素(指管网设备故障、运行压力及波动、使用时间、管材质量和管道内腐蚀)和人为因素(指操作失误)是影响安全生产的最直接、最重要的因素,管网因素占比达50. 94%,其中操作失误、管网设备故障以及管材质量对管道完整性的影响较大。
In view of the many influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity,the complex relationship and the unclear structure,the interpretative structural model( ISM) method is used to quantitatively describe the 24 factors affecting the gas pipeline integrity through the reachable matrix. The influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity are divided into 7 levels,and the hierarchy and relevance relationship are divided to provide a theoretical basis for the management of urban gas pipeline integrity. Based on the surface influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity determined by the ISM,the influence of each surface influencing factor is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process( AHP). Among the surface influencing factors,pipe network factors( referring to pipe network equipment failure,operating pressure and fluctuation,use time,pipe quality and pipeline internal corrosion)and human factors( referring to operational errors) are the most direct and important factors affecting safety production. The pipe network factors account for50. 94%,of which the operational errors,pipe network equipment failure and pipe quality have a greater impact on pipeline integrity.
In view of the many influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity,the complex relationship and the unclear structure,the interpretative structural model( ISM) method is used to quantitatively describe the 24 factors affecting the gas pipeline integrity through the reachable matrix. The influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity are divided into 7 levels,and the hierarchy and relevance relationship are divided to provide a theoretical basis for the management of urban gas pipeline integrity. Based on the surface influencing factors of the gas pipeline integrity determined by the ISM,the influence of each surface influencing factor is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process( AHP). Among the surface influencing factors,pipe network factors( referring to pipe network equipment failure,operating pressure and fluctuation,use time,pipe quality and pipeline internal corrosion)and human factors( referring to operational errors) are the most direct and important factors affecting safety production. The pipe network factors account for50. 94%,of which the operational errors,pipe network equipment failure and pipe quality have a greater impact on pipeline integrity.
引文
[1]王春雪,吕淑然.城市燃气管道泄漏致灾混合概率风险评估研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(12):146-151.
[2]刘国志,彭英伟,伍东,等.天然气管道完整性管理探析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):136-141.
[3]黄维和,郑洪龙,吴忠良.管道完整性管理在中国应用10年回顾与展望[J].天然气工业,2013,33(12):1-5.
[4]周德敏,蔡守翔,何仁洋,等.管道完整性管理技术在城镇燃气管线中的应用[J].管道技术与设备,2007(6):18-20.
[5]姜林林,左忠义.基于ISM方法的城市轨道交通系统运营安全分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(6):172-176.
[6]乔萍,张树平,万杰,等.基于ISM高层建筑消防救援影响因素研究[J].消防科学与技术,2016(9):1294-1297.
[7]杨伟丽.基于ISM有向图的求可达矩阵的简洁算法(硕士学位论文)[D].厦门:厦门大学,2007:1-65.
[8]阳富强,朱伟方,刘晓霞.基于ISM和区间数的含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(9):62-66.
[9]杨振宏,王璨,胡世杰.基于AHP的城市燃气管道安全模糊综合评判体系研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(2):257-260.
[10]唐晓文,沈宏,冯禹,等.油气管道完整性管理与安全管理体系整合研究[J].工业安全与环保,2017(2):59-62.
[11]张满可,杜前洲,彭强,等. 2011-2014年我国城市燃气事故统计分析[J].煤气与热力,2016,36(1):B40-B46.
[12] KISHAWY H A,GABBAR H A. Review of pipeline integrity management practices[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2010,87(7):373-380.
[13]田彦清,杨振宏,李华,等.基于ISM和AHP的作业场所风险影响因素研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(1):140-146.
[14]杨秀文,严尚安,曾顺鹏,等.关于可达矩阵的求法探讨[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(11):128-130.
[15]马子超,李杰,李泽华.以ISM和AHP分析燃气输配站设施的风险影响因素[J].安全,2016,37(10):12-14.
[2]刘国志,彭英伟,伍东,等.天然气管道完整性管理探析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):136-141.
[3]黄维和,郑洪龙,吴忠良.管道完整性管理在中国应用10年回顾与展望[J].天然气工业,2013,33(12):1-5.
[4]周德敏,蔡守翔,何仁洋,等.管道完整性管理技术在城镇燃气管线中的应用[J].管道技术与设备,2007(6):18-20.
[5]姜林林,左忠义.基于ISM方法的城市轨道交通系统运营安全分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2013,23(6):172-176.
[6]乔萍,张树平,万杰,等.基于ISM高层建筑消防救援影响因素研究[J].消防科学与技术,2016(9):1294-1297.
[7]杨伟丽.基于ISM有向图的求可达矩阵的简洁算法(硕士学位论文)[D].厦门:厦门大学,2007:1-65.
[8]阳富强,朱伟方,刘晓霞.基于ISM和区间数的含硫油品储罐自燃影响因素分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(9):62-66.
[9]杨振宏,王璨,胡世杰.基于AHP的城市燃气管道安全模糊综合评判体系研究[J].安全与环境学报,2013,13(2):257-260.
[10]唐晓文,沈宏,冯禹,等.油气管道完整性管理与安全管理体系整合研究[J].工业安全与环保,2017(2):59-62.
[11]张满可,杜前洲,彭强,等. 2011-2014年我国城市燃气事故统计分析[J].煤气与热力,2016,36(1):B40-B46.
[12] KISHAWY H A,GABBAR H A. Review of pipeline integrity management practices[J]. International Journal of Pressure Vessels&Piping,2010,87(7):373-380.
[13]田彦清,杨振宏,李华,等.基于ISM和AHP的作业场所风险影响因素研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(1):140-146.
[14]杨秀文,严尚安,曾顺鹏,等.关于可达矩阵的求法探讨[J].数学的实践与认识,2003,33(11):128-130.
[15]马子超,李杰,李泽华.以ISM和AHP分析燃气输配站设施的风险影响因素[J].安全,2016,37(10):12-14.