我国中西部县域实施PPP模式的风险探究
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摘要
在问卷调查的基础上,构建我国中西部县域PPP模式的风险因素评价指标体系。经过风险指标权重的计算,从19个风险中筛选出9个制约中西部县域PPP项目的关键风险因素,并通过相关检验和因素分析将其划分到4个关键风险组群,分别为政治风险、经济风险、市场环境风险和合作风险。结果显示:政治风险为制约PPP发展的最主要风险组群,而项目收益不足则是评分最高的单项风险因素。
On the basis of questionnaire survey,the risk factors evaluation index system of PPP model in central and western counties of China is constructed. After calculating the weight of risk indicators,nine key risk factors restricting PPP projects in central and western counties were selected from 19 risks,and divided into four key risk groups through relevant tests and factor analysis,namely political risk,economic risk,market environment risk and cooperation risk. The results show that political risk is the most important risk group that restricts the development of PPP,and the lack of project income is the single risk factor with the highest score.
On the basis of questionnaire survey,the risk factors evaluation index system of PPP model in central and western counties of China is constructed. After calculating the weight of risk indicators,nine key risk factors restricting PPP projects in central and western counties were selected from 19 risks,and divided into four key risk groups through relevant tests and factor analysis,namely political risk,economic risk,market environment risk and cooperation risk. The results show that political risk is the most important risk group that restricts the development of PPP,and the lack of project income is the single risk factor with the highest score.
引文
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[4]任志涛,武继科.基于结构方程的PPP项目失败关键影响因素分析[J].天津城建大学学报,2017,23(1):60-65.
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[9]D. W. M. Chan,M. M. Kumaraswamy,An evaluation of construction time performance in the building industry,Building and Environment,1996,31(6):569-578.
[10]H. Lingard,S. Rowlinson,Letter to the editor,Construction Management and Economics,2006,24(11):1107-1109.
[2]尹贻林,尹晓璐.北京地铁4号线PPP建设模式风险分担研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2013,35(10):6-11.
[3]李素英,杨娱. PPP模式下基础设施项目融资风险研究———以RC县市政基础设施建设为例[J].经济研究参考,2016(33):15-19.
[4]任志涛,武继科.基于结构方程的PPP项目失败关键影响因素分析[J].天津城建大学学报,2017,23(1):60-65.
[5]Bing L,Akintoye A,Edwards P J,et al. The allocation of risk in PPP/PFI construction projects in the UK[J]. International Journal of Project Management,2005,23(1):25-35.
[6]Ameyaw E E,Chan A P C. Evaluating key risk factors for PPP water projects in Ghana:a Delphi study[J]. Journal of Facilities Management,2015,13(2):133-155.
[7]熊燕斌,刘震华. PPP模式在中部地区基础设施建设融资中的创新应用[J].价格月刊,2007(9):28-29.
[8]成玉青.浅谈中西部资源型县应用PPP模式的现状和存在的问题[J].江苏商论,2015(25):57-58.
[9]D. W. M. Chan,M. M. Kumaraswamy,An evaluation of construction time performance in the building industry,Building and Environment,1996,31(6):569-578.
[10]H. Lingard,S. Rowlinson,Letter to the editor,Construction Management and Economics,2006,24(11):1107-1109.