基于甜甜圈理论的各国(地区)绿色增长评价
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摘要
本文基于甜甜圈理论,根据118个国家和地区1992—2010年的相关数据,将绿色增长从质量性发展、数量性扩张的维度进行评价。结论表明:中等收入国家的质量性发展速度最快,高收入国家对数量性扩张的控制最好,但高收入国家过度的数量性扩张最严重,中等收入国家过度的数量性扩张比较严重。随着质量性发展与数量性扩张速度的下降,中国未来合理的经济增长速度应逐渐下降到一个合理的位置。从传统经济增长方式向绿色经济增长方式转变在不同的发展阶段有不同的实现方式,中国目前处于中等偏上收入国家的后期阶段,应当考虑在向绿色增长方式转变中由提高生态效率转移到抑制数量性扩张上。
Based on the donut theory,this paper evaluates 118 countries and areas' green growth from quality development and quantitative expansion by using relevant data from 1992 to 2010. The results show that middle-income countries have the fastest speed of quality development,while high-income countries and areas have the best control of quantitative expansion. However,the quantitative expansion of high-income countries and areas is most serious,with middle-income countries being second. Due to the deceleration of quality development and quantitative expansion,China should gradually decreasing the economic growth rate to a reasonable position in future. There should be implementation models at stages accordingly,when shifting from traditional economic growth mode to green growth. For China is at the late stage of upper middle income country,it should be considered more about the inhibition of quantitative expansion instead of improving ecological efficiency.
Based on the donut theory,this paper evaluates 118 countries and areas' green growth from quality development and quantitative expansion by using relevant data from 1992 to 2010. The results show that middle-income countries have the fastest speed of quality development,while high-income countries and areas have the best control of quantitative expansion. However,the quantitative expansion of high-income countries and areas is most serious,with middle-income countries being second. Due to the deceleration of quality development and quantitative expansion,China should gradually decreasing the economic growth rate to a reasonable position in future. There should be implementation models at stages accordingly,when shifting from traditional economic growth mode to green growth. For China is at the late stage of upper middle income country,it should be considered more about the inhibition of quantitative expansion instead of improving ecological efficiency.
引文
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[2]魏伯乐.五倍级——缩减资源消耗,转型绿色经济[M].程一恒,译.上海:格致出版社,上海人民出版社,2010.
[3]莱斯特·布朗.B模式4.0:起来,拯救文明[M].林自新,胡晓梅,译.上海:上海科技教育出版社,2010.
[4]联合国开发计划署.2011年人类发展报告——可持续性与平等:共享美好未来[R].联合国开发计划署,2011.
[5]联合国开发计划署.中国人类发展报告2009/10——迈向低碳经济和社会的可持续未来[R].联合国开发计划署,2010.
[6]蒂姆·杰克逊.无增长的繁荣[M].乔坤,方俊青,译.北京:中国商业出版社,2011.
[7]诸大建.可持续发展——诸大建学术日记(2012)[M].上海:同济大学出版社,2013.
[8]杨文举.中国地区工业的动态环境绩效:基于DEA的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(6):87-98.
[9]王兵,吴延瑞,颜鹏飞.中国区域环境效率与环境全要素生产率增长[J].经济研究,2010(5):95-109.
[10]匡远凤,彭代彦.中国环境生产效率与环境全要素生产率分析[J].经济研究,2012(7):62-74.
[11]德内拉·梅多斯.增长的极限[M].李涛,王智勇,译.北京:机械工业出版社,2006.
[12]世界自然基金会.地球生命力报告2014[R].世界自然基金会,2014.