税率、公共服务支出对经济产出的影响——基于当前财政政策的理论及模拟分析
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摘要
供给侧结构性改革之"一降一补"任务已成为当前经济工作的重中之重。通过把税率看作生产与消费的约束条件,考虑公共服务支出对消费的外部性影响,将消费税率、劳动税率和资本收益税率以及政府转移性支付等公共服务支出纳入统一的研究框架,从而构建一个一般均衡模型,研究税率与公共服务支出所占份额变化对经济产出的影响。在独立可加与非独立可加两种效用偏好假定下进行理论推导,并以中国宏观经济变量-产出比率数据为基准值进行数值分析,研究结果表明:(1)产出与各税率均负相关;(2)产出与政府公共服务支出在消费函数中所占份额的关系则因税种、效用偏好不同而存在差异。最后,基于研究结果提出相关政策建议。
The "one drop and one supplement" task of the supply-side structural reform has become the top priority of current economic work. The tax rates are considered as the constraint of enterprises and consumers, given the external influence of public service expenditure on consumption, and consumption tax rate, labor tax rate, capital gain tax rate, and the public service expenditures such as government transfer payment are included in the unified research framework. Then a general equilibrium model is constructed to study the impact of changes in tax rates and the shares of public service expenditure on the economy. The theoretical derivation is carried out under the assumptions of non-independently and independently additive utility preferences, and the numerical analysis is given based on the Chinese macroeconomic variable-output ratio data. The results show that:(1)Output is negatively correlated with each tax rate;(2)The relationship between output and the share of government public service expenditure in the consumption function is different due to different taxes and utility preferences. Finally, based on the research results, relevant policy recommendations are proposed.
The "one drop and one supplement" task of the supply-side structural reform has become the top priority of current economic work. The tax rates are considered as the constraint of enterprises and consumers, given the external influence of public service expenditure on consumption, and consumption tax rate, labor tax rate, capital gain tax rate, and the public service expenditures such as government transfer payment are included in the unified research framework. Then a general equilibrium model is constructed to study the impact of changes in tax rates and the shares of public service expenditure on the economy. The theoretical derivation is carried out under the assumptions of non-independently and independently additive utility preferences, and the numerical analysis is given based on the Chinese macroeconomic variable-output ratio data. The results show that:(1)Output is negatively correlated with each tax rate;(2)The relationship between output and the share of government public service expenditure in the consumption function is different due to different taxes and utility preferences. Finally, based on the research results, relevant policy recommendations are proposed.
引文
1.刘蓉、祖进元、王雯:《供给学派理论对当前我国减税政策的启迪》,《税务研究》2016年第2期。
2.李东松、赵志君:《税率、公共支出政策对经济增长的影响分析》,《财经问题研究》2018年第2期。
3.罗伯特·巴罗、夏威尔·萨拉-伊-马丁著,夏俊译:《经济增长》,格致出版社2013版。
4.迟福林:《门槛:政府转型与改革攻坚》,中国经济出版社2005年版。
5.金成晓、张东敏:《公共服务拥挤性、财政政策与长期经济增长》,《商业研究》2014年第11期。
6.陈丽娴、魏作磊:《公共服务支出对经济增长的影响》,《经济与管理》2017年第3期。
7.张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏:《中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000》,《经济研究》2004第10期。
8.林细细、龚六堂:《中国债务的福利损失分析》,《经济研究》2007年第1期。
9.郭庆旺、吕冰洋:《中国税收负担的综合分析》,《财经问题研究》2010第12期。
10.Barro R J.,“Government spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”[J].Journal of Political Economy1990,98(5).
11.King R G.,Rebelo S.,“Public Policy and Economic Growth:Developing Neoclassical Implications”[J].Rcer Working Papers,1990,98(5).
12.Glomm G.,Ravikumar B.,“Public Investment in Infrastructure in a Simple Growth Model”[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1994,18(6).
13.Gemmell N.,Kneller R.,Sanz I.,“The Growth Effects of Tax Rate in the OECD”[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique,2014,47(4).
14.Barro R J.,“Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth”[J].Review of Economic Studies,1992,59(4).
15.Eicher T.,Turnovsky S J.,“Scale,Congestion and Growth”[J].Economica,2000,67(267).
16.Turnovsky S J.,Pintea M,“Public and Private Production in a Two-Sector Economy”[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28(2).
17.Hiraga K.,Nutahara K.,“When Is the Laffer Curve for Consumption Tax Hump-Shaped?”[R].The Canon Institute for Global Studies,2016.
18.Mulligan C B.,“Capital,Interest,and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution”[J].Nber Working Paper,2002,97(2).
19.Vissing-J覬rgensen A.,Attanasio O P.,“Stock-Market Participation,Intertemporal Substitution,and Risk-Aversion”The American Economic Review,2003,93(2).
20.Bansal R.,Yaron A.,“Risks for the Long Run:A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles”[J].Journal of Finance,2004,59(4).
21.Gruber J.,“A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution”[J].The Quarterly Journal of Finance,2013,3(1).
22.Kobayashi K.,Nakajima T.,Inaba M.,“Collateral Constraint and News-Driven Cycles”[J].Macroeconomic Dynamics,2012,16(5).
23.Christiano L J.,Trabandt M.,Walentin K.,“Dsge Models for Monetary Policy Analysis”[J].Handbook of Monetary Economics,2010,3(16074).
24.Hansen G D.,“Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle”[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1985,16(3).
25.Rogerson R.,“Indivisible Labor,Lotteries and Equilibrium”[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,21(1).
26.Trabandt M.,Ulig H.,“The Laffer Curve Revisited”[J]Journal of Monetary Economics,2011,58(4).
27.Nutahara K.,“Laffer Curves in Japan”[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2015,36.
28.Bai C E.,Hsieh C T.,Qian Y.,“The Return to Capital in China”[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2006,2006(2).
(1)由于篇幅限制,本文没有提供模型最优化问题的具体推导过程,如果有需求,请向笔者索取。
(2)图1、图2以及以下各三维模拟分析图形均系以理论推导为据、进而利用MATLAB所绘制。
2.李东松、赵志君:《税率、公共支出政策对经济增长的影响分析》,《财经问题研究》2018年第2期。
3.罗伯特·巴罗、夏威尔·萨拉-伊-马丁著,夏俊译:《经济增长》,格致出版社2013版。
4.迟福林:《门槛:政府转型与改革攻坚》,中国经济出版社2005年版。
5.金成晓、张东敏:《公共服务拥挤性、财政政策与长期经济增长》,《商业研究》2014年第11期。
6.陈丽娴、魏作磊:《公共服务支出对经济增长的影响》,《经济与管理》2017年第3期。
7.张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏:《中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952-2000》,《经济研究》2004第10期。
8.林细细、龚六堂:《中国债务的福利损失分析》,《经济研究》2007年第1期。
9.郭庆旺、吕冰洋:《中国税收负担的综合分析》,《财经问题研究》2010第12期。
10.Barro R J.,“Government spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”[J].Journal of Political Economy1990,98(5).
11.King R G.,Rebelo S.,“Public Policy and Economic Growth:Developing Neoclassical Implications”[J].Rcer Working Papers,1990,98(5).
12.Glomm G.,Ravikumar B.,“Public Investment in Infrastructure in a Simple Growth Model”[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,1994,18(6).
13.Gemmell N.,Kneller R.,Sanz I.,“The Growth Effects of Tax Rate in the OECD”[J].Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique,2014,47(4).
14.Barro R J.,“Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth”[J].Review of Economic Studies,1992,59(4).
15.Eicher T.,Turnovsky S J.,“Scale,Congestion and Growth”[J].Economica,2000,67(267).
16.Turnovsky S J.,Pintea M,“Public and Private Production in a Two-Sector Economy”[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28(2).
17.Hiraga K.,Nutahara K.,“When Is the Laffer Curve for Consumption Tax Hump-Shaped?”[R].The Canon Institute for Global Studies,2016.
18.Mulligan C B.,“Capital,Interest,and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution”[J].Nber Working Paper,2002,97(2).
19.Vissing-J覬rgensen A.,Attanasio O P.,“Stock-Market Participation,Intertemporal Substitution,and Risk-Aversion”The American Economic Review,2003,93(2).
20.Bansal R.,Yaron A.,“Risks for the Long Run:A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles”[J].Journal of Finance,2004,59(4).
21.Gruber J.,“A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution”[J].The Quarterly Journal of Finance,2013,3(1).
22.Kobayashi K.,Nakajima T.,Inaba M.,“Collateral Constraint and News-Driven Cycles”[J].Macroeconomic Dynamics,2012,16(5).
23.Christiano L J.,Trabandt M.,Walentin K.,“Dsge Models for Monetary Policy Analysis”[J].Handbook of Monetary Economics,2010,3(16074).
24.Hansen G D.,“Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle”[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1985,16(3).
25.Rogerson R.,“Indivisible Labor,Lotteries and Equilibrium”[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1988,21(1).
26.Trabandt M.,Ulig H.,“The Laffer Curve Revisited”[J]Journal of Monetary Economics,2011,58(4).
27.Nutahara K.,“Laffer Curves in Japan”[J].Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,2015,36.
28.Bai C E.,Hsieh C T.,Qian Y.,“The Return to Capital in China”[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2006,2006(2).
(1)由于篇幅限制,本文没有提供模型最优化问题的具体推导过程,如果有需求,请向笔者索取。
(2)图1、图2以及以下各三维模拟分析图形均系以理论推导为据、进而利用MATLAB所绘制。