宏观资源配置系统的失调与转型
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摘要
我国宏观资源从工业化时期以生产供给为中心向城市化时期以要素升级和创新激励为中心的转型,是与我国经济已经迈向深度城市化的发展阶段相联系的。进入21世纪以来,中国重化工业化和城市化的双加速过程,一改传统工业化资源配置主导发展的局面,衍生出了这种新的资源配置系统。但是,受制于模仿复制以及效率改进能力的缺失,以压低成本谋求比较优势的工业化资源配置方式,受到了高成本城市化的冲击,而2012年以来的结构性减速使得失调进一步加剧。深度城市化时期公共服务支出的刚性以及可持续发展要求,使得相互冲突的两种配置体制同时失效。从需求支出端和制度供给端协同发力重塑资源配置机制,成为未来宏观经济调控科学性的根本取向,而效率提升和公共支出的良性循环是调控转型的目标。
The transformation from the supply-centric resource allocation system during the industrialization period to the resource allocation system with focus on the upgrading of factors and innovation incentives during the urbanization period is linked to the development stage in which the Chinese economy has moved toward deep urbanization. The double acceleration processes of China's heavy industrialization and urbanization since the beginning of the new century is different from the situation of traditional industrialized resource allocation leading development, which has derived a new resource allocation system of land finance. However, due to the practice of imitation and replication and the lack of ability in efficiency improvement, the industrial resource allocation method that seeks comparative advantage by preserving low cost has been hammered by high-cost urbanization. The structural slowdown since 2012 has further exacerbated the imbalance. The rigidity of public service expenditures during the deep urbanization period and the requirements for sustainable development invalidate the two conflicting resource allocation methods at the same time. Reshaping the resource allocation mechanism from both the demand-expenditure end and the system supply side, becomes the fundamental orientation of scientific regulations in the future. The virtuous circle of efficiency and public spending is the goal of transforming macroeconomic regulation and control.
The transformation from the supply-centric resource allocation system during the industrialization period to the resource allocation system with focus on the upgrading of factors and innovation incentives during the urbanization period is linked to the development stage in which the Chinese economy has moved toward deep urbanization. The double acceleration processes of China's heavy industrialization and urbanization since the beginning of the new century is different from the situation of traditional industrialized resource allocation leading development, which has derived a new resource allocation system of land finance. However, due to the practice of imitation and replication and the lack of ability in efficiency improvement, the industrial resource allocation method that seeks comparative advantage by preserving low cost has been hammered by high-cost urbanization. The structural slowdown since 2012 has further exacerbated the imbalance. The rigidity of public service expenditures during the deep urbanization period and the requirements for sustainable development invalidate the two conflicting resource allocation methods at the same time. Reshaping the resource allocation mechanism from both the demand-expenditure end and the system supply side, becomes the fundamental orientation of scientific regulations in the future. The virtuous circle of efficiency and public spending is the goal of transforming macroeconomic regulation and control.
引文
付敏杰张平袁富华,2017:《工业化和城市化进程中的财税体制演进:事实、逻辑和政策选择》,《经济研究》第12期。
林卫基任志清席睿德,2018:《中国该如何深化改革:IMF的国际视野》,中信出版社。
刘世锦,2004:《我国进入新的重化工业阶段及其对宏观经济的影响》,《经济学动态》第11期。
陆江源等:《结构演进、诱致失灵与效率补偿》,《经济研究》第9期。
殷剑锋王增武,2013:《影子银行与银行的影子》,社会科学文献出版社。
张平,2017:《货币供给机制变化与经济稳定化政策的选择》,《经济学动态》第7期。
张平,2018:《从“摸着石头过河”到“大国模型”——改革开放四十年中国宏观经济学理论演变》,《文化纵横》第12期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2003:《经济增长、结构调整的累积效应与资本形成》,《经济研究》第8期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2009:《城市化、产业效率与经济增长》,《经济研究》第10期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2012:《中国经济长期增长路径、效率与潜在增长水平》,《经济研究》第11期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2013:《中国经济转型的结构性特征、风险与效率提升路径》,《经济研究》第10期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2014:《中国经济增长的低效率冲击与减速治理》,《经济研究》第12期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2015:《突破经济增长减速的新要素供给理论、体制与政策选择》,《经济研究》第11期。
林卫基任志清席睿德,2018:《中国该如何深化改革:IMF的国际视野》,中信出版社。
刘世锦,2004:《我国进入新的重化工业阶段及其对宏观经济的影响》,《经济学动态》第11期。
陆江源等:《结构演进、诱致失灵与效率补偿》,《经济研究》第9期。
殷剑锋王增武,2013:《影子银行与银行的影子》,社会科学文献出版社。
张平,2017:《货币供给机制变化与经济稳定化政策的选择》,《经济学动态》第7期。
张平,2018:《从“摸着石头过河”到“大国模型”——改革开放四十年中国宏观经济学理论演变》,《文化纵横》第12期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2003:《经济增长、结构调整的累积效应与资本形成》,《经济研究》第8期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2009:《城市化、产业效率与经济增长》,《经济研究》第10期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2012:《中国经济长期增长路径、效率与潜在增长水平》,《经济研究》第11期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2013:《中国经济转型的结构性特征、风险与效率提升路径》,《经济研究》第10期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2014:《中国经济增长的低效率冲击与减速治理》,《经济研究》第12期。
中国经济增长前沿课题组,2015:《突破经济增长减速的新要素供给理论、体制与政策选择》,《经济研究》第11期。