水文序列变异点综合诊断——以布尔哈通河为例
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摘要
季节与年际间降水量的巨大差异导致布尔哈通河流域洪涝与干旱灾害频发。文章通过对布尔哈通河水文序列进行三步诊断,以期找到多年径流量变化趋势出现显著不同的变异年份,即变异点。一阶段采用滑动平均法和Hurst系数法进行预诊断,以确定是否需要进一步详细诊断;二阶段采用Pet-titt检验法、Mann—Kenddall(M-K)检验法、滑动T检验、累计距平法和秩和检验进行详细诊断,以确定变异点的可能年份;三阶段是对预诊断和详细诊断的综合分析,最终确定出变异年份为1966年、1985年和2002年。
The gap between the seasonal and interannual precipitation leads to Buer hatong river basin flood and drought disasters.Based on Boolean horton the three-step diagnosis text sequences,this paper aims to find many years runoff change trend of different variations of significant year,namely the change point.In the first stage,the methods of moving average method and Hurst coefficient method are carried on the preliminary diagnosis,to determine whether it needs to be further detailed diagnosis.In the second stage,the methods are used including Pettitt tests,Mann-Kenddall(M-K)test,slide test,the accumulative anomaly method and detailed diagnosis rank and inspection,to determine the variation points may be the year.The last stage is a detailed diagnosis of early diagnosis and comprehensive analysis,and eventually determines the variation of the year for 1966,1985 and 2002.
The gap between the seasonal and interannual precipitation leads to Buer hatong river basin flood and drought disasters.Based on Boolean horton the three-step diagnosis text sequences,this paper aims to find many years runoff change trend of different variations of significant year,namely the change point.In the first stage,the methods of moving average method and Hurst coefficient method are carried on the preliminary diagnosis,to determine whether it needs to be further detailed diagnosis.In the second stage,the methods are used including Pettitt tests,Mann-Kenddall(M-K)test,slide test,the accumulative anomaly method and detailed diagnosis rank and inspection,to determine the variation points may be the year.The last stage is a detailed diagnosis of early diagnosis and comprehensive analysis,and eventually determines the variation of the year for 1966,1985 and 2002.
引文
[1]彭朝辉,严永涛,金成浩,等.延边朝鲜族自治州布尔哈通河干流水质监测分析评价[J].东北水利水电,2008(7):64-65.
[2]车松月,车弘珠.布尔哈通河源头区水资源可持续利用初探[J].吉林水利,2003(12):14-15.
[3]宋哲男,朴明世.浅析布尔哈通河流域洪涝灾害与防灾对策[J].吉林水利,2004(2):18-21.
[4]谢平,陈广才,雷红富.基于Hurst系数的水文变异分析方法[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2009(1):32-39.
[5]金爱芬,裴洪淑,朱卫红.图们江流域气温的周期和趋势分析[J].延边大学农学学报,2006(1):4-9.
[6]刘琦,孙冰心.M-K和滑动T确定穆棱河流域径流变化突变时间[J].黑龙江水利,2015(7):35-37.
[7]束美珍,刘丽红.海河流域近51年降水量时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015(6):1065-1068.
[8]王璨,周秀平,王文圣.窟野河洪水序列变异点综合诊断[J].水电能源科学,2012(7):50-53.
[9]谢平,陈广才,李德,等.水文变异综合诊断方法及其应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2005(2):11-14.
[2]车松月,车弘珠.布尔哈通河源头区水资源可持续利用初探[J].吉林水利,2003(12):14-15.
[3]宋哲男,朴明世.浅析布尔哈通河流域洪涝灾害与防灾对策[J].吉林水利,2004(2):18-21.
[4]谢平,陈广才,雷红富.基于Hurst系数的水文变异分析方法[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2009(1):32-39.
[5]金爱芬,裴洪淑,朱卫红.图们江流域气温的周期和趋势分析[J].延边大学农学学报,2006(1):4-9.
[6]刘琦,孙冰心.M-K和滑动T确定穆棱河流域径流变化突变时间[J].黑龙江水利,2015(7):35-37.
[7]束美珍,刘丽红.海河流域近51年降水量时空变化特征[J].南水北调与水利科技,2015(6):1065-1068.
[8]王璨,周秀平,王文圣.窟野河洪水序列变异点综合诊断[J].水电能源科学,2012(7):50-53.
[9]谢平,陈广才,李德,等.水文变异综合诊断方法及其应用研究[J].水电能源科学,2005(2):11-14.