我国教育财政投入记忆性的实证研究——基于分数布朗运动模型
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摘要
2012年我国财政性教育经费占当年GDP比重为4.28%,首次达到并超过教育财政投入4%的战略目标。伴随着我国经济发展步入"新常态",经济下行导致财政收入放缓,给"后4%时代"的教育财政投入带来较大的不确定性。基于分数布朗运动模型,通过Whittle和R/S两种方法对我国历年财政性教育经费的赫斯特指数H进行实证测算。测算结果均显示:"后4%时代"的我国教育财政投入增长具有短记忆性,财政性教育经费在未来不能延续前一阶段增长趋势,教育财政投入4%的"政策红利"已开始逐步消失。
In 2012, China's financial education funds accounted for 4.28% of the proportion of GDP, for the first time to reach and exceed 4% of the strategic objectives of the financial investment of education. With China's economic development into The New Normal, the economic downturn led to a slowdown in revenue, which brings greater uncertainty to the post 4%era of education financial investment. Based on the Fractional Brown motion model, the Hearst index H empirical calculation of the financial education funds in our country over the years is carried out by the Whittle and R/S two methods. The results showed that: "the post 4% era" of China's financial investment in education growth has a short memory, financial education funds cannot continue the growth trend of the previous stage in the future, and the financial investment in education 4% of the dividend policy has begun to gradually disappear.
In 2012, China's financial education funds accounted for 4.28% of the proportion of GDP, for the first time to reach and exceed 4% of the strategic objectives of the financial investment of education. With China's economic development into The New Normal, the economic downturn led to a slowdown in revenue, which brings greater uncertainty to the post 4%era of education financial investment. Based on the Fractional Brown motion model, the Hearst index H empirical calculation of the financial education funds in our country over the years is carried out by the Whittle and R/S two methods. The results showed that: "the post 4% era" of China's financial investment in education growth has a short memory, financial education funds cannot continue the growth trend of the previous stage in the future, and the financial investment in education 4% of the dividend policy has begun to gradually disappear.
引文
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[15]汪栋,黄斌.我国教育财政投入充足指数设计与标准化测算[J].华东师范大学学报(教科版),2017,(03);116-123;
[16]赵海利,陈芳敏.政府间义务教育财政事权和支出责任演变——来自美国的经验[J].教育发展研究,2017,(08):40-45.
[2]耿志祥,王传玉,林建忠.金融资产厚尾分布及常用的风险度量——α-stable分布下的MDD、Da R和CDa R[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2013,(2):49-63.
[3]J.Beran.Statistical methods for data with Long-range dependence[J].Statistical Science,1992,(4):404-427.
[4]Lei P,Nualart D.A decomposition of the bi-fractional Brownian motion and some applications[J].Statistics and Probability Letters,2009,(5):619-624.
[5]肖炜麟,张卫国,徐维军.次分数布朗运动下带交易费用的备兑权证定价[J].中国管理科学,2014,(5):1-7.
[6]王扬雷,杜莉.我国碳金融交易市场的有效性研究——基于北京碳交易市场的分形理论分析[J].管理世界,2015,(12):174-175.
[7]Mandelbrot B.A Fast Fractional Gaussian noise generator[J].Water Resources Research,1971,(3):543-553.
[8]Green M T,Fielitz B D.Long-term depence in common stock returns[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1977,(3):339-349.
[9]徐龙炳,陆蓉.R/S分析探索中国股票市场的非线性[J].预测,1999,(2):59-62.
[10]胡彦梅,张卫国,陈建忠.中国股市长记忆的修政R/S分析[J].数理统计与管理,2006,(01):73-77.
[11]庞淑娟,刘向丽,汪寿阳.中国期货市场高频波动率的长记忆性[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,(6):1039-1044.
[12]O.Rose.Estimation of the Hurst Parameter Long-Range Dependent Time Series[J].Working Paper,1996:4-11.
[13]赵攀,肖庆宪.基于Tsallis分布及跳扩散过程的欧式期权定价[J].中国管理科学,2015,(6):41-48.
[14]龙舟.我国教育财政制度改革变迁研究[J].当代教育理论与实践,2009,(08):7-9.
[15]汪栋,黄斌.我国教育财政投入充足指数设计与标准化测算[J].华东师范大学学报(教科版),2017,(03);116-123;
[16]赵海利,陈芳敏.政府间义务教育财政事权和支出责任演变——来自美国的经验[J].教育发展研究,2017,(08):40-45.