中国金融包容性发展、经济增长与碳排放
|
摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济高速增长,为中国崛起提供了重要的物质基础与保障。然而,粗放型经济发展模式也导致严重的资源环境问题。金融是现代经济发展核心,实现中国绿色低碳经济发展离不开金融支持。本文首先在分析金融发展、经济增长对碳排放的作用机制基础上,提出以下研究假说:(1)金融发展对碳排放存在正、负两种效应,其综合效应的大小取决于两种效应的相对大小。(2)环境库兹涅兹曲线假说并不是稳健的,其成立与计量方法、研究区域等选取有关。(3)金融发展对碳排放的影响在不同经济发展阶段与金融发展水平下存在门槛效应。(4)空间异质性对金融发展与碳排放之间关系存在显著影响。随后构建动态面板模型与面板门槛模型,应用系统GMM、固定效应、随机效应等多种估计方法,在核算中国各省份金融包容性发展指数与碳排放基础上,结合省级面板数据,并分东、中、西区域,对以上假说进行实证检验与分析。得出以下结论:(1)中国金融包容性发展呈现区域性差异,东部金融发展明显优于中西部地区。(2)当前中国金融发展有利于减少碳排放,促进低碳经济发展。(3)当以金融发展为门槛变量时,金融发展的碳减排效应是逐渐弱化的。(4)当以经济增长作为门槛变量时,金融发展的碳减排效应是逐渐增强的。(5)空间异质性影响金融发展与碳排放之间关系——中西部区域内金融发展有利于减少碳排放;东部区域内金融发展却导致碳排放增加。最后,本文从强化金融在绿色低碳经济发展中的作用、创新开放格局等方面提出政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up policy was adopted,China has experienced a booming economic growth,which provides a important material basis for the development. However,the noneffective development of economy has led to a serious environmental concern. As the core of modern economic development,finance is a necessary support for low-carbon economy in China. Based on investigating the mechanism of financial inclusive development and economic growth on carbon emissions,this paper puts forward four hypotheses:(1) there may exist two possible effects( positive or negative) of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions,the final effect depends on the relative size of the two effects;(2) the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis is not robust,which is associated the selection of method of measurement and research areas;(3) there may exist threshold effect on the impact of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions at different stages of economic development;(4) spatial heterogeneity has a significant effect on the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions. Based on the calculation of financial inclusion development index and carbon emissions,this paper constructed dynamic panel model and panel threshold model and applied estimation methods such as system GMM,fixed effect and random effect using provincial panel data. We tested the proposed hypothesis within the east,central and west China respectively. The following conclusions are obtained:(1) China 's financial development shows regional characteristics and financial development in the east China is clearly superior to that of the west and central;(2) China 's current financial development has a contribution to reducing emission and promotes the development of low-carbon economy;(3) the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually weakened when financial development is the threshold variable;(4) the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually increased when economic growth is a threshold variable;(5) Spatial heterogeneity can impact the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions: financial inclusive development contributes to reducing emission in central and west China,but leads to increased emission in the east China. At last,we give policy suggestions on strengthening the role of finance in the low-carbon economy development.
Since the reform and opening up policy was adopted,China has experienced a booming economic growth,which provides a important material basis for the development. However,the noneffective development of economy has led to a serious environmental concern. As the core of modern economic development,finance is a necessary support for low-carbon economy in China. Based on investigating the mechanism of financial inclusive development and economic growth on carbon emissions,this paper puts forward four hypotheses:(1) there may exist two possible effects( positive or negative) of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions,the final effect depends on the relative size of the two effects;(2) the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis is not robust,which is associated the selection of method of measurement and research areas;(3) there may exist threshold effect on the impact of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions at different stages of economic development;(4) spatial heterogeneity has a significant effect on the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions. Based on the calculation of financial inclusion development index and carbon emissions,this paper constructed dynamic panel model and panel threshold model and applied estimation methods such as system GMM,fixed effect and random effect using provincial panel data. We tested the proposed hypothesis within the east,central and west China respectively. The following conclusions are obtained:(1) China 's financial development shows regional characteristics and financial development in the east China is clearly superior to that of the west and central;(2) China 's current financial development has a contribution to reducing emission and promotes the development of low-carbon economy;(3) the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually weakened when financial development is the threshold variable;(4) the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually increased when economic growth is a threshold variable;(5) Spatial heterogeneity can impact the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions: financial inclusive development contributes to reducing emission in central and west China,but leads to increased emission in the east China. At last,we give policy suggestions on strengthening the role of finance in the low-carbon economy development.
引文
[1]GROSSMAN G M,KRUEGER A B.Environmental impacts of a North Amercian Free Trade Agreement[R].NBER working paper,1991.
[2]KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].American economic review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[3]PANAYOTOU T.Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[R].Geneva:ILO,1993.
[4]DINDA S.Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:a survey[J].Ecological economics,2004,49(4):431-455.
[5]HARBAUGH W T,LEVINSON A,WILSON D M,et al.Reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets Curve[J].Review of economics and statistics,2002,84(3):541-551.
[6]CLAESSENS S,FEYENE E.Financial sector development and millennium development goals[R].World bank,2007.
[7]TAMAZIAN A,CHOUSA J P,VADLAMANNATI K C,et al.Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation:evidence from BRIC countries[J].Energy policy,2009,37(1):246-253.
[8]TAMAZIAN A,RAO B B.Do economic,financial and institutional development matter for environmental degradation:evidence from transition economies[J].Energy economics,2010,32(1):137-145.
[9]SHAHBAZ M,SOLARIN S A,MAHMOOD H,et al.Does financial development reduce CO2emissions in Malaysian economy?a time series analysis[J].Economic modelling,2013,35(5):145-152.
[10]ALAHUDDIN M,GOW J,OZTURK I,et al.Is the long-run relationship between economic growth,electricity consumption,carbon dioxide emissions and financial development in Gulf Cooperation Countries robust[J].Renewable&sustainable energy reviews,2015,51(11):317-326.
[11]BOUTABBA M A.The impact of financial development,income,energy and trade on carbon emissions:evidence from the Indian economy[J].Economic modelling,2014,40(C):33-41.
[12]SHAHZADS J H,REHMAN M U,HURR M,et al.Financial development increase carbon emission in Pakistan:empirical analysis through ARDL cointegration and VECM causality[R].MPRA,2014.
[13]JAVID M,SHARIF G F.Energy consumption,financial development and CO2emissions in Pakistan[R].MPRA,2013.
[14]ALI S,WAQAS H,AHMAD N,et al.Analyzing the dynamics of energy consumption,liberalization,financial development,poverty and carbon emissions in Pakistan[J].Journal of applied environmental and biological sciences,2015,5(4):166-183.
[15]JALIL A,FERIDU M.The impact of growth,energy and financial development on the environment in China:a cointegration analysis[J].Energy economics,2011,33(2):284-291.
[16]ZHANG Y J.The impact of financial development on carbon emissions:an empirical analysis in China[J].Energy policy,2011,39(4):2197-2203.
[17]顾红梅,何彬.中国省域金融发展与碳排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(8):22-27.[GU Hongmei,HE Bin.Study on Chinese financial development and carbon emission:evidence from China’s provincial data from 1979 to 2008[J].China population,resources and environment,2012,22(8):22-27.]
[18]严成樑,李涛,兰伟.金融发展、创新与二氧化碳排放[J].金融研究,2016(1):14-30.[YAN Chengliang,LI Tao,LAN Wei.Financial development,innovation and carbon emission[J].Journal of financial research,2016(1):14-30.]
[19]王修华,关键.中国农村金融包容水平测度与收入分配效应[J].中国软科学,2014(8):150-161.[WANG Xiuhua,GUAN Jian.The income distribution effect and measure of rural financial inclusion in China[J].China soft science,2014(8):150-161.]
[20]CHARKRAVARTY S R,PAL R.Measuring financial inclusion:an axiomatic approach[R].Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research,2010.
[21]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[22]WANG Q Y.Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata[J].The Stata journal,2015(1):121-134.
[23]杜立民.我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素:基于省级面板数据的研究[J].南方经济,2005(11):20-33.[DU Limin.Impact factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions:provincial panel data analysis[J].South China journal of economics,2005(11):20-33.]
[24]SARMA M.Index of financial inclusion[R].ICRIER,2008:215.
[25]PRAVAT K,ARINDAM L.Financial inclusion and human development in India:an inter-state analysis[J].Indian journal of human development,2011,5(1):61-78.
[26]ARELLANO M,BOVER O.Another look at the instrumental variables estimation of error components models[J].Journal of econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
(1)根据国家统计局相关资料,东部省份包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、山东、福建、广东、海南等11个政治中心或沿海省、市;中西部省份则包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南、内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等19 个内陆省、市、地区。
[2]KUZNETS S.Economic growth and income inequality[J].American economic review,1955,45(1):1-28.
[3]PANAYOTOU T.Empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development[R].Geneva:ILO,1993.
[4]DINDA S.Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis:a survey[J].Ecological economics,2004,49(4):431-455.
[5]HARBAUGH W T,LEVINSON A,WILSON D M,et al.Reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets Curve[J].Review of economics and statistics,2002,84(3):541-551.
[6]CLAESSENS S,FEYENE E.Financial sector development and millennium development goals[R].World bank,2007.
[7]TAMAZIAN A,CHOUSA J P,VADLAMANNATI K C,et al.Does higher economic and financial development lead to environmental degradation:evidence from BRIC countries[J].Energy policy,2009,37(1):246-253.
[8]TAMAZIAN A,RAO B B.Do economic,financial and institutional development matter for environmental degradation:evidence from transition economies[J].Energy economics,2010,32(1):137-145.
[9]SHAHBAZ M,SOLARIN S A,MAHMOOD H,et al.Does financial development reduce CO2emissions in Malaysian economy?a time series analysis[J].Economic modelling,2013,35(5):145-152.
[10]ALAHUDDIN M,GOW J,OZTURK I,et al.Is the long-run relationship between economic growth,electricity consumption,carbon dioxide emissions and financial development in Gulf Cooperation Countries robust[J].Renewable&sustainable energy reviews,2015,51(11):317-326.
[11]BOUTABBA M A.The impact of financial development,income,energy and trade on carbon emissions:evidence from the Indian economy[J].Economic modelling,2014,40(C):33-41.
[12]SHAHZADS J H,REHMAN M U,HURR M,et al.Financial development increase carbon emission in Pakistan:empirical analysis through ARDL cointegration and VECM causality[R].MPRA,2014.
[13]JAVID M,SHARIF G F.Energy consumption,financial development and CO2emissions in Pakistan[R].MPRA,2013.
[14]ALI S,WAQAS H,AHMAD N,et al.Analyzing the dynamics of energy consumption,liberalization,financial development,poverty and carbon emissions in Pakistan[J].Journal of applied environmental and biological sciences,2015,5(4):166-183.
[15]JALIL A,FERIDU M.The impact of growth,energy and financial development on the environment in China:a cointegration analysis[J].Energy economics,2011,33(2):284-291.
[16]ZHANG Y J.The impact of financial development on carbon emissions:an empirical analysis in China[J].Energy policy,2011,39(4):2197-2203.
[17]顾红梅,何彬.中国省域金融发展与碳排放研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(8):22-27.[GU Hongmei,HE Bin.Study on Chinese financial development and carbon emission:evidence from China’s provincial data from 1979 to 2008[J].China population,resources and environment,2012,22(8):22-27.]
[18]严成樑,李涛,兰伟.金融发展、创新与二氧化碳排放[J].金融研究,2016(1):14-30.[YAN Chengliang,LI Tao,LAN Wei.Financial development,innovation and carbon emission[J].Journal of financial research,2016(1):14-30.]
[19]王修华,关键.中国农村金融包容水平测度与收入分配效应[J].中国软科学,2014(8):150-161.[WANG Xiuhua,GUAN Jian.The income distribution effect and measure of rural financial inclusion in China[J].China soft science,2014(8):150-161.]
[20]CHARKRAVARTY S R,PAL R.Measuring financial inclusion:an axiomatic approach[R].Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research,2010.
[21]HANSEN B E.Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing,and inference[J].Journal of econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[22]WANG Q Y.Fixed-effect panel threshold model using Stata[J].The Stata journal,2015(1):121-134.
[23]杜立民.我国二氧化碳排放的影响因素:基于省级面板数据的研究[J].南方经济,2005(11):20-33.[DU Limin.Impact factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions:provincial panel data analysis[J].South China journal of economics,2005(11):20-33.]
[24]SARMA M.Index of financial inclusion[R].ICRIER,2008:215.
[25]PRAVAT K,ARINDAM L.Financial inclusion and human development in India:an inter-state analysis[J].Indian journal of human development,2011,5(1):61-78.
[26]ARELLANO M,BOVER O.Another look at the instrumental variables estimation of error components models[J].Journal of econometrics,1995,68(1):29-51.
(1)根据国家统计局相关资料,东部省份包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、山东、福建、广东、海南等11个政治中心或沿海省、市;中西部省份则包括山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南、内蒙古、广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等19 个内陆省、市、地区。