基于EIO-LCA模型的中国1992—2012年碳排放结构特征研究
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摘要
构建非竞争型投入产出表,计算1992—2012年中国碳排放数据,利用EIO-LCA方法对排放结构特征进行分析。结果表明:我国碳排放总体上呈快速上升趋势。从部门结构来看,隐含排放量最多的为建筑业。从类型结构来看,1992—2012年我国碳排放增长的主要原因在于投资活动、出口及城镇居民消费规模的大幅增长。投资活动占最终需求总增量的55.83%,其隐含排放主要在部门28 (建筑业)。出口占最终需求总增量的24.38%,其隐含排放主要集中在制造业,我国出口隐含碳排放总体上较高。城镇居民消费占最终需求总增量的14.99%,其隐含排放主要集中在部门25 (电力、热力的生产和供应业)。1992—2012年间,部门28,17 (通用、专用设备制造业)和35(其他服务业)的增幅最明显,三者共占总增量的60.45%;部门22 (其他制造业),2 (煤炭开采和洗选业),5 (非金属矿采选业),3 (石油和天然气开采业)和8 (纺织业)的碳排放保持下降趋势。
This paper constructs a non-competition input-output table, calculates the carbon emission data in China from 1992 to 2012, and analyzes the structural characteristics of its emissions using the EIO-LCA method.The results show that, in general, China's carbon emission shows a fast rising trend. From the view of department structure, in 1992–2012, the main reason for the growth of carbon emissions in China was the large increase in investment activities, exports and the consumption of urban residents. Investment activities accounted for 55.83%of the total increment of the final demand, and the embodied emissions were mainly in the sector 28(Construction).Exports accounted for 24.38% of the total final demand. The embodied emissions were mainly concentrated in the manufacturing industry. In general, China's exports contain higher carbon emissions. The consumption of urban residents accounted for 14.99% of the total increment of the final demand. The embodied emissions were mainly concentrated in sector 25(Production and distribution of electric power and heat power). In 1992–2012, the growth rate of sector 28, 17(Manufacture of general and special purpose machinery) and 35(Other services) was the most obvious, and the three accounted for 60.45% of the total increment. In addition, the carbon emissions of sector 22(Other manufacturing), 2(Mining and washing of coal), 5(Mining and processing of nonmetal ores), 3(Extraction of petroleum and natural gas) and 8(Manufacture of textiles) maintained a downward trend.
This paper constructs a non-competition input-output table, calculates the carbon emission data in China from 1992 to 2012, and analyzes the structural characteristics of its emissions using the EIO-LCA method.The results show that, in general, China's carbon emission shows a fast rising trend. From the view of department structure, in 1992–2012, the main reason for the growth of carbon emissions in China was the large increase in investment activities, exports and the consumption of urban residents. Investment activities accounted for 55.83%of the total increment of the final demand, and the embodied emissions were mainly in the sector 28(Construction).Exports accounted for 24.38% of the total final demand. The embodied emissions were mainly concentrated in the manufacturing industry. In general, China's exports contain higher carbon emissions. The consumption of urban residents accounted for 14.99% of the total increment of the final demand. The embodied emissions were mainly concentrated in sector 25(Production and distribution of electric power and heat power). In 1992–2012, the growth rate of sector 28, 17(Manufacture of general and special purpose machinery) and 35(Other services) was the most obvious, and the three accounted for 60.45% of the total increment. In addition, the carbon emissions of sector 22(Other manufacturing), 2(Mining and washing of coal), 5(Mining and processing of nonmetal ores), 3(Extraction of petroleum and natural gas) and 8(Manufacture of textiles) maintained a downward trend.
引文
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[31]万宇,李杨,侯晓梅.基于EIO-LCA方法的2007年与2012年中国碳排放结构比较研究.生态经济(中文版),2017,33(9):21-25
[32]Pan Jiahua,Phillips J,Chen Ying.China’s balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility.Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354-376
[33]Yan Yunfeng,Yang Laike.China’s foreign trade and climate change:a case study of CO2 emissions.Energy Policy,2010,38(1):350-356
[34]Chen Zhanming,Liu Yu,Qin Ping,et al.Environmental externality of coal use in China:welfare effect and tax regulation.Applied Energy,2015,156:16-31
[35]Chen Zhanming,Chen Guoqian,Zhou Jianbo,et al.Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005.Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(7):1942-1965
[36]Hendrickson C,Horvath A,Joshi S,et al.Peer reviewed:economic input-output models for environmental life-cycle assessment.Environmental Science&Technology,1998,32(7):184A-191A
[37]Matthews H S,Small M J.Extending the boundaries of life-cycle assessment through environmental economic input-output models.Journal of Industrial Ecology,2000,4(3):7-10
[38]黄颖,计军平,马晓明.基于EIO-LCA模型的纯电动轿车温室气体减排分析.中国环境科学,2012,32(5):947-953
[39]李小环,计军平,马晓明,等.基于EIO-LCA的燃料乙醇生命周期温室气体排放研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(6):1081-1088
[40]吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,等.基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析.中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(4):43-51
[41]袁长伟,白娟,芮晓丽,等.基于EIO-LCA模型的陕西省产业碳减排效应.长安大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(4):48-55
[42]Chen Guoqian,Chen Zhanming.Carbon emissions and resources use by Chinese economy 2007:a 135-sector inventory and input-output embodiment.Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(11):3647-3732
[43]Weber C L,Peters G P,Guan D,et al.The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change.Energy Policy,2008,36(9):3572-3577
[44]Peters G,Weber C,Liu J.Construction of Chinese energy and emissions inventory.Academic Medicine Journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges,2006,69(9):703-707
[45]刘起运,彭志龙.中国1992-2005年可比价投入产出序列表及分析.北京:中国统计出版社,2010
[46]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国投入产出表2007.北京:中国统计出版社,2009
[2]Net X.U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change[EB/OL].(2014-11)[2017-11-09].https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/ziliao_674904/zt_674979/ywz t_675099/2014zt_675101/fzshyjxghd_675199/zxxx_675201/t1210034.shtml
[3]Zhang Bo,Chen Guoqian.China’s CH4 and CO2emissions:bottom-up estimation and comparative analysis.Ecological Indicators,2014,47:112-122
[4]Chen Guoqian,Zhang Bo.Greenhouse gas emissions in China 2007:inventory and input-output analysis.Energy Policy,2010,38(10):6180-6193
[5]Liu Zhu,Guan Dabo,Wei Wei,et al.Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China.Nature,2015,524:335-338
[6]国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室.中国温室气体清单研究.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2007
[7]Zhang Bo,Chen Guoqian,Xia Xiaohua,et al.Environmental emissions by Chinese industry:exergybased unifying assessment.Energy Policy,2012,45:490-501
[8]Xia Xiaohua,Huang Guitian,Chen Guoqian,et al.Energy security,efficiency and carbon emission of Chinese industry.Energy Policy,2011,39(6):3520-3528
[9]Agency I E.2006 IPCC guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Geneva:IPCC,2006
[10]Peters G P,Hertwich E G.Post-Kyoto greenhouse gas inventories:production versus consumption.Climatic Change,2007,86(1/2):51-66
[11]Peters G P,Hertwich E G.Pollution embodied in trade:the Norwegian case.Global Environmental Change,2006,16(4):379-387
[12]Munksgaard J,Pedersen K A.CO2 accounts for open economies:producer or consumer responsibility?.Energy Policy,2001,29(4):327-334
[13]Peters G P.From production-based to consumptionbased national emission inventories.Ecological Economics,2008,65(1):13-23
[14]Leontief W W,Leontief W.Input-output economics.Oxford:Oxford University Press,1986
[15]Wiedmann T.A review of recent multi-region inputoutput models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting.Ecological Economics,2009,69(2):211-222
[16]Miller R E,Blair P D.Input-output analysis:foundations and extensions.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2009
[17]Leontief W.Environmental repercussions and economic structure:an input-output approach.Review of Economics and Statistics,1970,52(3):262-271
[18]Zhang Bo,Chen Guoqian,Li Jiashuo,et al.Methane emissions of energy activities in China 1980-2007.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2014,29:11-21
[19]Butnar I,Llop M.Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems:changes in CO2 emissions of Spanish service sectors(2000-2005).Ecological Economics,2011,70(11):2012-2019
[20]Lenzen M.Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption:an inputoutput analysis.Energy Policy,1998,26(6):495-506
[21]Labandeira X,Labeaga J M.Estimation and control of Spanish energy-related CO2 emissions:an inputoutput approach.Energy Policy,2002,30(7):597-611
[22]Zhang Yuejun,Bian Xiaojuan,Tan Weiping,et al.The indirect energy consumption and CO2 emission caused by household consumption in China:an analysis based on the input-output method.Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,163:69-83
[23]Andrew R,Forgie V.A three-perspective view of greenhouse gas emission responsibilities in New Zealand.Ecological Economics,2008,68(1):194-204
[24]Su Bin,Ang B W.Multiplicative decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity change using input-output analysis.Applied Energy,2015,154:13-20
[25]Lenzen M,Murray J,Sack F,et al.Shared producer and consumer responsibility-theory and practice.Ecological Economics,2007,61(1):27-42
[26]Cui Lianbiao,Peng Pan,Zhu Lei.Embodied energy,export policy adjustment and China’s sustainable development:a multi-regional input-output analysis.Energy,2015,82:457-467
[27]Zhang Wencheng,Peng Shuijun,Sun Chuanwang.CO2 emissions in the global supply chains of services:an analysis based on a multi-regional input-output model.Energy Policy,2015,86:93-103
[28]Peters G P,Weber C L,Guan D,et al.China’s growing CO2 emissions a race between increasing consumption and efficiency gains.Environmental Science&Technology,2007,41(17):5939-5944
[29]Minx J C,Baiocchi G,Peters G P,et al.A“carbonizing dragon”:China’s fast growing CO2emissions revisited.Environmental Science&Technology,2011,45(21):9144-9153
[30]计军平,刘磊,马晓明.基于EIO-LCA模型的中国部门温室气体排放结构研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(4):741-749
[31]万宇,李杨,侯晓梅.基于EIO-LCA方法的2007年与2012年中国碳排放结构比较研究.生态经济(中文版),2017,33(9):21-25
[32]Pan Jiahua,Phillips J,Chen Ying.China’s balance of emissions embodied in trade:approaches to measurement and allocating international responsibility.Oxford Review of Economic Policy,2008,24(2):354-376
[33]Yan Yunfeng,Yang Laike.China’s foreign trade and climate change:a case study of CO2 emissions.Energy Policy,2010,38(1):350-356
[34]Chen Zhanming,Liu Yu,Qin Ping,et al.Environmental externality of coal use in China:welfare effect and tax regulation.Applied Energy,2015,156:16-31
[35]Chen Zhanming,Chen Guoqian,Zhou Jianbo,et al.Ecological input-output modeling for embodied resources and emissions in Chinese economy 2005.Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(7):1942-1965
[36]Hendrickson C,Horvath A,Joshi S,et al.Peer reviewed:economic input-output models for environmental life-cycle assessment.Environmental Science&Technology,1998,32(7):184A-191A
[37]Matthews H S,Small M J.Extending the boundaries of life-cycle assessment through environmental economic input-output models.Journal of Industrial Ecology,2000,4(3):7-10
[38]黄颖,计军平,马晓明.基于EIO-LCA模型的纯电动轿车温室气体减排分析.中国环境科学,2012,32(5):947-953
[39]李小环,计军平,马晓明,等.基于EIO-LCA的燃料乙醇生命周期温室气体排放研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(6):1081-1088
[40]吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,等.基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析.中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(4):43-51
[41]袁长伟,白娟,芮晓丽,等.基于EIO-LCA模型的陕西省产业碳减排效应.长安大学学报(社会科学版),2016,18(4):48-55
[42]Chen Guoqian,Chen Zhanming.Carbon emissions and resources use by Chinese economy 2007:a 135-sector inventory and input-output embodiment.Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation,2010,15(11):3647-3732
[43]Weber C L,Peters G P,Guan D,et al.The contribution of Chinese exports to climate change.Energy Policy,2008,36(9):3572-3577
[44]Peters G,Weber C,Liu J.Construction of Chinese energy and emissions inventory.Academic Medicine Journal of the Association of American Medical Colleges,2006,69(9):703-707
[45]刘起运,彭志龙.中国1992-2005年可比价投入产出序列表及分析.北京:中国统计出版社,2010
[46]国家统计局国民经济核算司.中国投入产出表2007.北京:中国统计出版社,2009