海南橡胶树热带气旋风灾易损性评估
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摘要
面向橡胶树热带气旋风险评估及保险应用,文章对橡胶树风灾易损性进行了量化评估。基于1971―2010年橡胶树种植及16场热带气旋的橡胶树农场尺度损毁统计数据,计算了每场热带气旋灾害发生时各农场开割、未开割2类橡胶树,倒伏、断主干2 m以下、断主干2 m以上、半倒、全部主枝折断5种类型的损毁率;使用热带气旋参数风场模型,模拟得到1 km栅格分辨率的风速,优选3 s极大风速(V3s)作为致灾强度指标,建立了6~14级风速区间2类橡胶树5种损毁类型的易损性曲线,并量化表达了损毁率的不确定性。结果表明,开割树(未开割树)自V3s达6(7)级起开始受到损毁,各类型损毁率在V3s达到9级后上升速度较快,在V3s达到14级时,总损毁率达到近70%(55%);未开割树的易损性低于开割树;易损性的不确定性特征随风速区间、承灾体种类、损毁类型不同而不同。橡胶树易损性曲线的建立及其不确定性的量化为橡胶树热带气旋巨灾风险建模奠定了良好的基础。
Hainan Island, located in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of South China, has been the largest base for rubber tree(Hevea brasiliensis) plantation and rubber production in China. Rubber trees are fragile to high wind, and therefore they have been suffering from the frequent tropical cyclones(TC) impacting Hainan. The quantitative evaluation of rubber tree fragility to TC wind is of vital importance to risk management, especially for catastrophe risk modeling. In this paper, firstly, the footprints of 16 TCs(1971-2010) are simulated at 1km grids with parametric TC windfield models considering both topographic and land use roughness effects. Then, the damage ratios of 2 rubber tree age groups(mature and young) from 5 damage types(overthrown, trunk snapped below 2 m, trunk snapped above 2 m, half-overthrown, and sheared) at farm scale are calculated based on rubber tree historical exposure and damage data. Thirdly, 3s peak gust wind(V3s) is selected to reflect wind hazard intensity, and the fragility curves for the 2 age groups and their 5 damage types are estimated through Beaufort Scale 6~14. In addition, the uncertainty of damage ratios is also quantitatively expressed. It is found that mature(young) rubber tree damage begins at Beaufort Scale 6(7) and then increases with the wind speed, leading to almost 70%(55%) total damage ratio at Beaufort Scale 14; mature trees demonstrate a higher fragility than young trees; the uncertainty of the 10 vulnerability curves varies with wind speed interval, tree age group, and damage type. Fragility curves developed in this study have been applied in a catastrophe risk model for designing a parametric wind insurance scheme on rubber tree TC disasters in Hainan Province.
Hainan Island, located in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of South China, has been the largest base for rubber tree(Hevea brasiliensis) plantation and rubber production in China. Rubber trees are fragile to high wind, and therefore they have been suffering from the frequent tropical cyclones(TC) impacting Hainan. The quantitative evaluation of rubber tree fragility to TC wind is of vital importance to risk management, especially for catastrophe risk modeling. In this paper, firstly, the footprints of 16 TCs(1971-2010) are simulated at 1km grids with parametric TC windfield models considering both topographic and land use roughness effects. Then, the damage ratios of 2 rubber tree age groups(mature and young) from 5 damage types(overthrown, trunk snapped below 2 m, trunk snapped above 2 m, half-overthrown, and sheared) at farm scale are calculated based on rubber tree historical exposure and damage data. Thirdly, 3s peak gust wind(V3s) is selected to reflect wind hazard intensity, and the fragility curves for the 2 age groups and their 5 damage types are estimated through Beaufort Scale 6~14. In addition, the uncertainty of damage ratios is also quantitatively expressed. It is found that mature(young) rubber tree damage begins at Beaufort Scale 6(7) and then increases with the wind speed, leading to almost 70%(55%) total damage ratio at Beaufort Scale 14; mature trees demonstrate a higher fragility than young trees; the uncertainty of the 10 vulnerability curves varies with wind speed interval, tree age group, and damage type. Fragility curves developed in this study have been applied in a catastrophe risk model for designing a parametric wind insurance scheme on rubber tree TC disasters in Hainan Province.
引文
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[10]许涵,李意德,骆土寿,等.达维台风对海南尖峰岭热带山地雨林群落的影响[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(6):1323-1334.
[11]林武星.台风对闽南沿海主要造林树种及农作物的影响[J].防护林科技,1999(2):16-18.
[12]李秀芬,朱教君,王庆礼,等.次生林雪风害干扰与树种及林型的关系[J].北京林业大学学报,2006,28(4):28-33.
[13]连士华.橡胶树风害成灾问题的探讨[J].热带作物学报,1984,6(1):59-72.
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[16]海南天然橡胶产业集团股份有限公司科技开发部.海南农垦橡胶树栽培技术手册[M].海南:海南省农垦总局,2007.
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[18]方伟华,林伟.面向灾害风险评估的台风风场模型综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):852-867.
[19]林伟,方伟华.西北太平洋台风风场模型中Holland B系数的区域特征研究[J].热带地理,2013,33(2):124-132.
[20]方伟华,蔡静宁,林伟,等.海南橡胶树风灾模型研究最终报告[R].北京:北京师范大学,2013.
[21]GEORGIOU P N,DAVENPORT A G,VICKERY B J.Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1983,13(1):139-152.
[22]MENG Y,MATSUI M,HIBI K.A numerical study of the wind field in a typhoon boundary layer[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1997(67/68):437-448.
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[26]WMO.Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation[M].Geneva:World Meteorological Organization,2008.
[27]海南省农垦局.海南省农垦统计资料汇编(1952―2001)[M].海南:海南省农垦总局,2003.
[28]中华人民共和国农业部.《橡胶树栽培技术规程》(NY/T 221-2006)[S].2006.
[29]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.《风力等级》(GB/T 28591-2012)[S].2012.
[30]PINELLI J P,GURLEY K,SUBRAMANIAN C,et al.Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(12):1896-1905.
[31]方伟华,石先武.面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(8):866-875.
[32]JARVIS A,REUTER H I,NELSON A,et al.Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4[EB/OL].[2008-11-10].CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90 m Database,http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
[33]NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center(LP DAAC).ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model[R].Sioux Falls:USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science(EROS)Center,2011.
[34]陈军,陈晋,廖安平,等.全球30 m地表覆盖遥感制图的总体技术[J].测绘学报,2014,43(6):551-557.
[2]蒙绪儒.天然橡胶产业机制创新的成效与经验——从海南福岛橡胶合作社的经验看橡胶合作化的重要性[J].中国热带农业,2013(1):25-27.
[3]GROSSI P,KUNREUTHER H.Catastrophe Modeling:A New Approach to Managing Risk[M].Germany:Springer,2005.
[4]方伟华,钟兴春,乔阳,等.基于浙江省台风灾害保险数据的农村住房易损性评价[J].北京师范大学学报:自然科学版,2011,47(4):409-414.
[5]GURLEY K,PINELLI J-P,SUBRAMANIAN C.Predicting the Vulnerability of Typical Residential Buildings to Hurricane Damage[R]//HAMID Shahid.Florida Public Hurricane Loss Projection Model Engineering Team Final Report.Miami,USA:Florida International University,2005.
[6]FEMA.Hazus-MH MR5 Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology Technical Manual for the Hurricane Model[EB/OL].[2014-07-14].http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/20469?id=4454.
[7]FRANCIS J K,GILLESPIE A J R.Relating Gust Speed to Tree Damage in Hurricane Hugo,1989[J].Journal of Aboriculture,1993,19(6):369-373.
[8]USBECK T,WOHLGEMUTH T,PFISTER C,et al.Wind Speed Measurements and Forest Damage in Canton Zurich(Central Europe)from 1891 to Winter 2007[J].International Journal of Climatology,2010,30(3):347-358.
[9]YOSHIDA T,NOGUCHI M.Vulnerability to Strong Winds for Major Tree Species in a Northern Japanese Mixed Forest:Analyses of Historical Data[J].Ecological Research,2009,24(4):909-919.
[10]许涵,李意德,骆土寿,等.达维台风对海南尖峰岭热带山地雨林群落的影响[J].植物生态学报,2008,32(6):1323-1334.
[11]林武星.台风对闽南沿海主要造林树种及农作物的影响[J].防护林科技,1999(2):16-18.
[12]李秀芬,朱教君,王庆礼,等.次生林雪风害干扰与树种及林型的关系[J].北京林业大学学报,2006,28(4):28-33.
[13]连士华.橡胶树风害成灾问题的探讨[J].热带作物学报,1984,6(1):59-72.
[14]朱锁凤,黄玉贤,张建新.海南台风[M].北京:气象出版社,1994.
[15]周芝锋.登陆海南岛的热带气旋特征及其对海南垦区橡胶生产的影响[C]//中国气象学会.中国气象学会2006年年会“灾害性天气系统的活动及其预报技术”分会场论文集.四川成都:中国气象学会,2006.
[16]海南天然橡胶产业集团股份有限公司科技开发部.海南农垦橡胶树栽培技术手册[M].海南:海南省农垦总局,2007.
[17]YING M,ZHANG W,YU H,et al.An overview of the China Meteorological Administration tropical cyclone database[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,2014,31(2):287-301.
[18]方伟华,林伟.面向灾害风险评估的台风风场模型综述[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):852-867.
[19]林伟,方伟华.西北太平洋台风风场模型中Holland B系数的区域特征研究[J].热带地理,2013,33(2):124-132.
[20]方伟华,蔡静宁,林伟,等.海南橡胶树风灾模型研究最终报告[R].北京:北京师范大学,2013.
[21]GEORGIOU P N,DAVENPORT A G,VICKERY B J.Design wind speeds in regions dominated by tropical cyclones[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1983,13(1):139-152.
[22]MENG Y,MATSUI M,HIBI K.A numerical study of the wind field in a typhoon boundary layer[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1997(67/68):437-448.
[23]CEN.Eurocode 1:Actions on structures.Part 1-4:General actions-Wind actions[S].Brussels:European Committee for Standardization,2005.
[24]ESDU.Strong winds in the atmospheric boundary layer,Part 2:Discrete gust speeds[R].London:ESDU International,1983.
[25]林伟.海南岛台风大风危险性分析[D].北京:北京师范大学,2014.
[26]WMO.Guide to Meteorological Instruments and Methods of Observation[M].Geneva:World Meteorological Organization,2008.
[27]海南省农垦局.海南省农垦统计资料汇编(1952―2001)[M].海南:海南省农垦总局,2003.
[28]中华人民共和国农业部.《橡胶树栽培技术规程》(NY/T 221-2006)[S].2006.
[29]中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.《风力等级》(GB/T 28591-2012)[S].2012.
[30]PINELLI J P,GURLEY K,SUBRAMANIAN C,et al.Validation of a probabilistic model for hurricane insurance loss projections in Florida[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(12):1896-1905.
[31]方伟华,石先武.面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述[J].地球科学进展,2012,27(8):866-875.
[32]JARVIS A,REUTER H I,NELSON A,et al.Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4[EB/OL].[2008-11-10].CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90 m Database,http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org.
[33]NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center(LP DAAC).ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model[R].Sioux Falls:USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science(EROS)Center,2011.
[34]陈军,陈晋,廖安平,等.全球30 m地表覆盖遥感制图的总体技术[J].测绘学报,2014,43(6):551-557.