风暴潮灾害受灾人口与直接经济损失评估方法研究进展
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摘要
基于风暴潮致灾和成灾过程,分别对风暴潮灾害受灾人口与直接经济损失评估方法进行了综述.总体上看,国内外已建立多种风暴潮受灾人口和直接经济损失的评估方法,并开发了一些业务化评估系统.但国内风暴潮灾害损失评估所需数据比较缺乏,评估方法多是对潮灾损失与影响因素间的线性关系分析,对灾情的模拟评估较少,评估结果实用性较低.风暴潮灾情的评估应增强对历史灾情数据、现场调查数据、遥感数据和保险公司业务等数据源的融合和综合利用,加强对承灾体脆弱性定量评估的研究,通过建立风暴潮巨灾模型系统,实现对风暴潮灾情的实时动态可视化评估.
Affected population and direct economic loss were evaluated based on storm surge disaster process,the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods as well as their applications were reviewed.A variety of assessment methods for evaluating storm surge-affected population and direct economic losses at home and abroad exist,but domestic storm surge loss evaluation lacks relevant data,and damage assessment methods are mostly linear relationship between storm surge disaster loss and its influencing factors,few concerns disaster simulation assessment.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen data source coordination and comprehensive utilization,such as historical disaster data,field survey data,remote sensing data and insurance company business data,and to increase vulnerability assessment studies for quantitative hazard bearing body.In addition,it is important to combine evaluation methods with GIS technology to develop dynamic and visual disaster evaluation systems based on disaster simulation,to assess storm surge disaster loss comprehensively,timely and accurately.
Affected population and direct economic loss were evaluated based on storm surge disaster process,the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods as well as their applications were reviewed.A variety of assessment methods for evaluating storm surge-affected population and direct economic losses at home and abroad exist,but domestic storm surge loss evaluation lacks relevant data,and damage assessment methods are mostly linear relationship between storm surge disaster loss and its influencing factors,few concerns disaster simulation assessment.In the future,it is necessary to strengthen data source coordination and comprehensive utilization,such as historical disaster data,field survey data,remote sensing data and insurance company business data,and to increase vulnerability assessment studies for quantitative hazard bearing body.In addition,it is important to combine evaluation methods with GIS technology to develop dynamic and visual disaster evaluation systems based on disaster simulation,to assess storm surge disaster loss comprehensively,timely and accurately.
引文
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[2]赵领娣,任林军.风暴潮灾害造成的渔民收入损失评估[J].海洋开发与管理,2008(9):83
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[4]Karim M F,Mimura N.Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(3):490
[5]Blake E S,Landsea C W,Gibney E J.The deadliest,costliest,and most intense United States tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2006(and other frequently requested hurricane facts)[M].Washington:NOAA,2007
[6]Srinivasan D.Battling hazards with a brand new tool[J].Planning,2003(2):10
[7]王喜年,叶琳.我国沿海风暴潮的监测及其预报[J].海洋预报,1992,11(3):30
[8]董剑希,李涛,侯京明,等.广东省风暴潮时空分布特征及重点城市风暴潮风险研究[J].海洋学报,2014(3):83
[9]李文欢,石海莹.海南省风暴潮灾害预报及防范系统研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,2013
[10]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1
[11]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1991(11):37
[12]民政部.自然灾害情况统计制度[S].北京:民政部国家减灾中心,2004
[13]殷克东,方胜民,赵领娣.青岛近海风暴潮灾害损失与海洋经济安全预警[M].青岛:中国海洋大学出版社.2012
[14]许启望,谭树东.风暴潮灾害经济损失评估方法研究[J].海洋通报,1998,17(1):1
[15]李京,陈云浩.自然灾害灾情评估模型与方法体系[M].北京:科学出版社,2012
[16]韩贞辉,李志强,陈振拓,等.人口,房屋数据空间化及其在震灾快速评估中的应用[J].地震地质,2013,35(4):89
[17]Boyd E,Levitan M,Van Heerden I.Further specification of the dose-response relationship for flood fatality estimation[C]∥US-Bangladesh workshop on innovation in windstorm/storm surge mitigation construction.Dhaka:National Science Foundation and Ministry of Disaster&Relief,Government of Bangladesh.2005:19
[18]Tsuchiya Y,Kawata Y.Risk to life,warning systems,and protective construction against past storm surges in Osaka Bay[J].Natural disaster science,1981,3(1):33
[19]Dilley M.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis[M].Washington:World Bank Publications,2005
[20]聂承静,杨林生,李海蓉.中国地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012(3):375
[21]Cutter S L.Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Progress in human geography,1996,20:529
[22]Ikeda K.Gender differences in human loss and vulnerability in natural disasters:a case study from Bangladesh[J].Indian Journal of Gender Studies,1995,2(2):171
[23]王建军.基于ArcGIS的海南省风暴潮灾害预报与疏散系统的研究与实现[D].北京:中国地质大学,2012
[24]陈思宇,王志强,廖永丰.台风风暴潮灾害主要承灾体的成灾机制浅析:以2013年“天兔”台风风暴潮为例[J].中国减灾,2014(5):44
[25]房浩,李善峰,叶晓滨.天津市风暴潮经济损失评估[J].海洋环境科学,2007,26(3):271
[26]殷克东,韦茜,李兴东.风暴潮灾害社会经济损失评估研究[J].海洋环境科学,2012,31(6):835
[27]纪燕新,熊艺媛,麻荣永.风暴潮灾害损失评估的模糊综合方法[J].广西水利水电,2007(2):16
[28]赵昕,王晓霞,李莉.风暴潮灾害经济损失评估分析——以山东省为例[J].中国渔业经济,2011,29(3):91
[29]任林军.我国风暴潮灾害造成的渔民收入损失评估研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009
[30]Sztobryn M.Forecast of storm surge by means of artificial neural network[J].Journal of Sea Research,2003,49(4):317
[31]Lee T L.Neural network prediction of a storm surge[J].Ocean Engineering,2006,33(3):483
[32]高庆华,马宗晋,张业成.自然灾害评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2007
[33]樊运晓,罗云,陈庆寿.区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究[J].现代地质,2001,15(1):113
[34]方伟华,钟兴春,乔阳,等.基于浙江省台风灾害保险数据的农村住房易损性评价[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(4):409
[35]谭丽荣,陈珂,王军,等.近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2011,31(9):1111
[36]梁海燕,邹欣庆.海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估[J].海洋学报,2006,27(5):22
[37]Glahn B,Taylor A,Kurkowski N,et al.The role of the SLOSH model in National Weather Service storm surge forecasting[J].National Weather Digest,2009,33(1):3
[38]Chen S C,Chen M,Zhao N,et al.Florida public hurricane loss model:Research in multi-disciplinary system integration assisting government policy making[J].Government Information Quarterly,2009,26(2):285
[39]Peter Chessmen.Regional Initiatives in Asia to cope with the CAT challenges[J/OL].[2014-02-15].Taipei:Guy Carpenter and Company 2009(77):243.http:∥www.Guycarp.com/
[40]Ermoliev Y M,Ermolieva T Y,MacDonald G J,et al.A system approach to management of catastrophic risks[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2000,122(2):452
[41]Harris S P,Wilson D O.Mitigating hurricane storm surge perils at the DeLisle plant[J].Process Safety Progress,2008,27(3):177
[42]Wood R M,Drayton M,Berger A,et al.Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,2005,363(1831):1407
[43]Shepard C C,Agostini V N,Gilmer B,et al.Assessing future risk:quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island,New York[J].Natural Hazards,2012,60(2):727
[44]尹尽勇,徐晶,曹越男,等.我国海洋气象预报业务现状与发展[J].气象科技进展,2012(6):17
[45]胡德宝.国家海洋局上海海洋预报中心简介[J].海洋预报,2002(4):82
[2]赵领娣,任林军.风暴潮灾害造成的渔民收入损失评估[J].海洋开发与管理,2008(9):83
[3]Knabb R D,Rhome J R,Brown D P.Tropical cyclone report:hurricane katrina 23-30August 2005[M].Miami:National Hurricane Center,2005
[4]Karim M F,Mimura N.Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on cyclonic storm surge floods in Bangladesh[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(3):490
[5]Blake E S,Landsea C W,Gibney E J.The deadliest,costliest,and most intense United States tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2006(and other frequently requested hurricane facts)[M].Washington:NOAA,2007
[6]Srinivasan D.Battling hazards with a brand new tool[J].Planning,2003(2):10
[7]王喜年,叶琳.我国沿海风暴潮的监测及其预报[J].海洋预报,1992,11(3):30
[8]董剑希,李涛,侯京明,等.广东省风暴潮时空分布特征及重点城市风暴潮风险研究[J].海洋学报,2014(3):83
[9]李文欢,石海莹.海南省风暴潮灾害预报及防范系统研究[M].北京:海洋出版社,2013
[10]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2002,11(3):1
[11]史培军.灾害研究的理论与实践[J].南京大学学报(自然科学版),1991(11):37
[12]民政部.自然灾害情况统计制度[S].北京:民政部国家减灾中心,2004
[13]殷克东,方胜民,赵领娣.青岛近海风暴潮灾害损失与海洋经济安全预警[M].青岛:中国海洋大学出版社.2012
[14]许启望,谭树东.风暴潮灾害经济损失评估方法研究[J].海洋通报,1998,17(1):1
[15]李京,陈云浩.自然灾害灾情评估模型与方法体系[M].北京:科学出版社,2012
[16]韩贞辉,李志强,陈振拓,等.人口,房屋数据空间化及其在震灾快速评估中的应用[J].地震地质,2013,35(4):89
[17]Boyd E,Levitan M,Van Heerden I.Further specification of the dose-response relationship for flood fatality estimation[C]∥US-Bangladesh workshop on innovation in windstorm/storm surge mitigation construction.Dhaka:National Science Foundation and Ministry of Disaster&Relief,Government of Bangladesh.2005:19
[18]Tsuchiya Y,Kawata Y.Risk to life,warning systems,and protective construction against past storm surges in Osaka Bay[J].Natural disaster science,1981,3(1):33
[19]Dilley M.Natural disaster hotspots:a global risk analysis[M].Washington:World Bank Publications,2005
[20]聂承静,杨林生,李海蓉.中国地震灾害宏观人口脆弱性评估[J].地理科学进展,2012(3):375
[21]Cutter S L.Vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Progress in human geography,1996,20:529
[22]Ikeda K.Gender differences in human loss and vulnerability in natural disasters:a case study from Bangladesh[J].Indian Journal of Gender Studies,1995,2(2):171
[23]王建军.基于ArcGIS的海南省风暴潮灾害预报与疏散系统的研究与实现[D].北京:中国地质大学,2012
[24]陈思宇,王志强,廖永丰.台风风暴潮灾害主要承灾体的成灾机制浅析:以2013年“天兔”台风风暴潮为例[J].中国减灾,2014(5):44
[25]房浩,李善峰,叶晓滨.天津市风暴潮经济损失评估[J].海洋环境科学,2007,26(3):271
[26]殷克东,韦茜,李兴东.风暴潮灾害社会经济损失评估研究[J].海洋环境科学,2012,31(6):835
[27]纪燕新,熊艺媛,麻荣永.风暴潮灾害损失评估的模糊综合方法[J].广西水利水电,2007(2):16
[28]赵昕,王晓霞,李莉.风暴潮灾害经济损失评估分析——以山东省为例[J].中国渔业经济,2011,29(3):91
[29]任林军.我国风暴潮灾害造成的渔民收入损失评估研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2009
[30]Sztobryn M.Forecast of storm surge by means of artificial neural network[J].Journal of Sea Research,2003,49(4):317
[31]Lee T L.Neural network prediction of a storm surge[J].Ocean Engineering,2006,33(3):483
[32]高庆华,马宗晋,张业成.自然灾害评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2007
[33]樊运晓,罗云,陈庆寿.区域承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系研究[J].现代地质,2001,15(1):113
[34]方伟华,钟兴春,乔阳,等.基于浙江省台风灾害保险数据的农村住房易损性评价[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2011,47(4):409
[35]谭丽荣,陈珂,王军,等.近20年来沿海地区风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价[J].地理科学,2011,31(9):1111
[36]梁海燕,邹欣庆.海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估[J].海洋学报,2006,27(5):22
[37]Glahn B,Taylor A,Kurkowski N,et al.The role of the SLOSH model in National Weather Service storm surge forecasting[J].National Weather Digest,2009,33(1):3
[38]Chen S C,Chen M,Zhao N,et al.Florida public hurricane loss model:Research in multi-disciplinary system integration assisting government policy making[J].Government Information Quarterly,2009,26(2):285
[39]Peter Chessmen.Regional Initiatives in Asia to cope with the CAT challenges[J/OL].[2014-02-15].Taipei:Guy Carpenter and Company 2009(77):243.http:∥www.Guycarp.com/
[40]Ermoliev Y M,Ermolieva T Y,MacDonald G J,et al.A system approach to management of catastrophic risks[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2000,122(2):452
[41]Harris S P,Wilson D O.Mitigating hurricane storm surge perils at the DeLisle plant[J].Process Safety Progress,2008,27(3):177
[42]Wood R M,Drayton M,Berger A,et al.Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences,2005,363(1831):1407
[43]Shepard C C,Agostini V N,Gilmer B,et al.Assessing future risk:quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island,New York[J].Natural Hazards,2012,60(2):727
[44]尹尽勇,徐晶,曹越男,等.我国海洋气象预报业务现状与发展[J].气象科技进展,2012(6):17
[45]胡德宝.国家海洋局上海海洋预报中心简介[J].海洋预报,2002(4):82