暴露-反应关系的Meta分析与健康效应评价
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摘要
为了进一步认识西安大气污染暴露对人群健康的影响,利用Meta分析获取了中国人群大气污染物暴露与以死亡为健康终点影响的暴露—反应关系,结合西安2013、2014年的SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、O_3监测数据,利用泊松回归模型评价了人群健康影响。Meta分析结果表明,SO_2、NO_2、PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、O_3浓度每升高10μg/m~3居民非意外死亡率会增加1.17%、1.32%、0.40%、0.47%、0.56%;心血管疾病死亡率会增加1.27%、1.15%、0.54%、0.75%、0.84%;呼吸系统疾病死亡率会增加0.83%、1.83%、0.43%、0.56%、0.89%。以WHO空气质量指导值和国家《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095-2012)一、二级标准限值为参考浓度、可避免非意外死亡为健康端点,2013、2014年PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、O_3达到相应指标的健康效应远远高于SO_2、NO_2健康效应。主要原因是这些污染物超过相应标准的程度高。PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)和O_3浓度导致的健康效应巨大,因此在目前应该把PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)和O_3作为优先污染物进行控制。在符合我国目前经济发展阶段和环境管理要求的基础上,应适当降低现有国家标准浓度限值较高的PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)颗粒物和O_3的环境空气质量标准限值。
In order to further understand Xi'an air pollution exposure on human health,the Poisson regression model is used to evaluate the population health impact on the basis on SO_2,NO_2,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),O_3 monitoring data among 2013-2014 in Xi'an. In this process,the exposure-response relationship to air pollution about Chinese population was obtained by Metaanalysis,with the death as a health endpoint. Results indicated that the non-accidental death rate will increase by 1.17 %,1.32%,0.40%,0.47%,0.56%;cardiovascular disease mortality will increase by 1.27% 1.15%,0.54%,0.75%,0.84%;respiratory disease mortality will increase by 0.83%,1.83%,0.43%,0.56%,0.89%,along with SO_2,NO_2,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),O_3 concentration increasing 10 μg per cubic meter,respectively. With WHO air quality guideline values and standard limits from Chinese national Ambient Air Quality Standard(GB 3095-2012)as a reference concentration,and the non-accidental death as health endpoint,the health impact form PM_(10),PM_(2.5)and O_3 exposure were higher than that from SO_2 and NO_2 in 2013-2014,due to the high level of these pollutants exceeding the standards. PM_(10),PM_(2.5)and O_3 should be priority controlled for Xi'an due to its huge health impact. Finally,on the basis of compliance with the current stage of economic development and environmental management requirements,the concentration standard of PM_(10),PM_(2.5)particulates and O_3 should be appropriate reduced,which had high values in existing national ambient air quality standards.
In order to further understand Xi'an air pollution exposure on human health,the Poisson regression model is used to evaluate the population health impact on the basis on SO_2,NO_2,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),O_3 monitoring data among 2013-2014 in Xi'an. In this process,the exposure-response relationship to air pollution about Chinese population was obtained by Metaanalysis,with the death as a health endpoint. Results indicated that the non-accidental death rate will increase by 1.17 %,1.32%,0.40%,0.47%,0.56%;cardiovascular disease mortality will increase by 1.27% 1.15%,0.54%,0.75%,0.84%;respiratory disease mortality will increase by 0.83%,1.83%,0.43%,0.56%,0.89%,along with SO_2,NO_2,PM_(10),PM_(2.5),O_3 concentration increasing 10 μg per cubic meter,respectively. With WHO air quality guideline values and standard limits from Chinese national Ambient Air Quality Standard(GB 3095-2012)as a reference concentration,and the non-accidental death as health endpoint,the health impact form PM_(10),PM_(2.5)and O_3 exposure were higher than that from SO_2 and NO_2 in 2013-2014,due to the high level of these pollutants exceeding the standards. PM_(10),PM_(2.5)and O_3 should be priority controlled for Xi'an due to its huge health impact. Finally,on the basis of compliance with the current stage of economic development and environmental management requirements,the concentration standard of PM_(10),PM_(2.5)particulates and O_3 should be appropriate reduced,which had high values in existing national ambient air quality standards.
引文
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[22]张金艳,郭玉明,孟海英,等.北京市朝阳区大气污染与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列研究[J].环境与健康杂志,2010,27(9):797-800.Zhang Jinyan,Guo Yuming,Meng Haiying,et al.Timeseries analysis on relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in Chaoyang District,Beijing[J].Journal of Environment and Health,2010,27(9):797-800.(in Chinese)
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