种群密度与环境承载力对组织种群灭绝的影响
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摘要
文章概括了组织种群灭绝的现象及其原因,分别从组织种群密度与环境承载力方面分析了组织种群灭绝的机理。运用系统动力学方法,对组织种群密度与环境承载力影响组织种群灭绝的交互作用进行仿真模拟。结果发现:(1)在组织种群发展的初始阶段,种群密度的增长速度慢于环境承载力的增长速度;(2)种群密度对环境承载力的变动存在滞后效应。环境承载力减小后,种群密度需要四年的时间才开始呈现下降趋势。环境承载力等于零时,种群密度要在三年后才会等于零;(3)环境承载力略微下降能提升组织种群的资源利用效率,有利于组织种群存活。
Organizational population extinction is a frequent occurrence and is inevitable. Analyzing thoroughly the cause of organizational population extinction has great theoretical value and practical significance. Researches on the tendency and process of organizational population extinction and analyses of the internal mechanism of influencing factors are helpful for the academia to have a deep understanding of organizational population extinction. Firstly,this paper lists the phenomena of realistic organizational population extinction in history,and then generalizes the reasons of organizational population extinction. Moreover,it analyzes the mechanisms of population extinction from aspects of organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity.Based on Organizational Ecology theory and System Dynamics theory,we utilize the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the interactive effects of organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity on organizational population extinction.In theory,organizational population density equals to zero when carrying capacity is zero and organizational population are extinct. We simulate the evolvement tendency of environmental carrying capacity and organizational population density,the trajectory of organizational population density when environmental carrying capacity parameters are maintained and the change trend of carrying capacity when organizational population density remains constant. The simulation results verify the natural evolution of organizational population. Organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity have interactive effects to organizational population extinction. Environmental carrying capacity and organizational population density have upper limits. After reaching the limits,organizational population will deteriorate gradually,until it is downsized to extinction. When environmental carrying capacity shrinks,organizational population density will decline after four years. The study shows that:( 1) In the initial stage of organizational population evolution,the increasing speed of population density is slower than that of environmental carrying capacity. The founder of the enterprise needs to mobilize various resources and establish the legitimacy of the organization and its products. A series of preparatory work takes time. As a result,when the environmental carrying capacity increases,the population density requires some preparation time to develop.( 2) Population density has a lagged effect on the change of environmental carrying capacity. It was not until four years that the population density shows a downward trend when the environmental carrying capacity decrease. When the environmental carrying capacity equals to zero,population density needs three years to become zero. Organizational founders will constantly revise and adjust their expectations based on current available resources. When environmental carrying capacity decreases,entrepreneurs do not realize the changes in operation environment and market,they still eager to enter into the organizational population.New organizations are being established and existing organization struggle to stay in the organizational population,so the population density keep rising or remain stable. But the resources that the environment may supply are limited,as the development of population density,individual organization gets fewer resources in the increasingly competitive population. Inferior organizations are constantly being eliminated,and therefore the death rate of the organization rises up. Meanwhile,entrepreneurs that try to enter the population observe the phenomenon of population evolution and then give up joining the organizational population,the birth rate of the organization declines. It takes up four years for organizations to form expectations and make reactions after the environmental carrying capacity drops and available resources reduce.( 3) The moderate decline of environmental carrying capacity may improve the resource utilization efficiency of organizational population,and favorable for the survival of organizational population. Resources that organizations may obtain will descend when environmental carrying capacity decrease,but will urge the population to utilize resources more efficient and effective. On the contrary,excessive resources will weaken the importance of efficiency and adds to the disadvantage of organizational population.However,the rapid shrinkage of resources will place organizational population at serious risk of extinction. We should grasp the scale of resource control and make decisions according to the environmental carrying capacity and available resources.
Organizational population extinction is a frequent occurrence and is inevitable. Analyzing thoroughly the cause of organizational population extinction has great theoretical value and practical significance. Researches on the tendency and process of organizational population extinction and analyses of the internal mechanism of influencing factors are helpful for the academia to have a deep understanding of organizational population extinction. Firstly,this paper lists the phenomena of realistic organizational population extinction in history,and then generalizes the reasons of organizational population extinction. Moreover,it analyzes the mechanisms of population extinction from aspects of organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity.Based on Organizational Ecology theory and System Dynamics theory,we utilize the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the interactive effects of organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity on organizational population extinction.In theory,organizational population density equals to zero when carrying capacity is zero and organizational population are extinct. We simulate the evolvement tendency of environmental carrying capacity and organizational population density,the trajectory of organizational population density when environmental carrying capacity parameters are maintained and the change trend of carrying capacity when organizational population density remains constant. The simulation results verify the natural evolution of organizational population. Organizational population density and environmental carrying capacity have interactive effects to organizational population extinction. Environmental carrying capacity and organizational population density have upper limits. After reaching the limits,organizational population will deteriorate gradually,until it is downsized to extinction. When environmental carrying capacity shrinks,organizational population density will decline after four years. The study shows that:( 1) In the initial stage of organizational population evolution,the increasing speed of population density is slower than that of environmental carrying capacity. The founder of the enterprise needs to mobilize various resources and establish the legitimacy of the organization and its products. A series of preparatory work takes time. As a result,when the environmental carrying capacity increases,the population density requires some preparation time to develop.( 2) Population density has a lagged effect on the change of environmental carrying capacity. It was not until four years that the population density shows a downward trend when the environmental carrying capacity decrease. When the environmental carrying capacity equals to zero,population density needs three years to become zero. Organizational founders will constantly revise and adjust their expectations based on current available resources. When environmental carrying capacity decreases,entrepreneurs do not realize the changes in operation environment and market,they still eager to enter into the organizational population.New organizations are being established and existing organization struggle to stay in the organizational population,so the population density keep rising or remain stable. But the resources that the environment may supply are limited,as the development of population density,individual organization gets fewer resources in the increasingly competitive population. Inferior organizations are constantly being eliminated,and therefore the death rate of the organization rises up. Meanwhile,entrepreneurs that try to enter the population observe the phenomenon of population evolution and then give up joining the organizational population,the birth rate of the organization declines. It takes up four years for organizations to form expectations and make reactions after the environmental carrying capacity drops and available resources reduce.( 3) The moderate decline of environmental carrying capacity may improve the resource utilization efficiency of organizational population,and favorable for the survival of organizational population. Resources that organizations may obtain will descend when environmental carrying capacity decrease,but will urge the population to utilize resources more efficient and effective. On the contrary,excessive resources will weaken the importance of efficiency and adds to the disadvantage of organizational population.However,the rapid shrinkage of resources will place organizational population at serious risk of extinction. We should grasp the scale of resource control and make decisions according to the environmental carrying capacity and available resources.
引文
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[31]钟永光,贾晓菁,钱颖等.系统动力学第2版[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.Zhong Yongguang,Jia Xiaojing,Qian Ying,et al.System dynamics second edition[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013.
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[2]蒋天颖,程聪.企业知识转移生态学模型[J].科研管理,2012,33(2):130-138.Jiang Tianying,Cheng Cong.The ecological model for knowledge transfer in enterprises[J].Science Research Management,2012,33(2):130-138.
[3]毛凯军,田敏,许庆瑞.基于复杂系统理论的企业集群进化动力研究[J].科研管理,2004,25(4):110-115.Mao Kaijun,Tian Min,Xu Qingrui.The study of corporate clusters'evolution based on complex system theory[J].Science Research Management,2004,25(4):110-115.
[4]Braumann C.A.,Carlos C..Allee effects models in randomly varying environments[C]//Hamilton I.P.,Vigo-Aguiar J.Proceedings of the 2013 International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering.Almeria,Spain:CMMSE,2013:304-307.
[5]Freeman J.,Erik R.L.,Lomi A..Why is there no cannery in‘Cannery Row’?Exploring a behavioral simulation model of population extinction[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2011,21(1):99-125.
[6]Tovar L.A.R.,lvarez B.V.,Chavez A..Organizational efficiency in electric Mexican enterprise:Luz y Fuerza del Centro(Ly FC)as reason for extinction[J].i Business,2013,5(4):147-153.
[7]Carroll G.R.,Swaminathan A..Density dependent organizational evolution in the American brewing industry from 1633 to1988[J].Acta Sociologica,1991,34(3):155-175.
[8]Ingram P.,Rao H..Store wars:The enactment and repeal of anti-chain legislation in the United States[J].American Journal of Sociology,2004(110):446-487.
[9]Newman M.E.J.,Palmer R.G..Modeling extinction[M].Oxford University Press,2003.
[10]Ruef M..The demise of an organizational form:Emancipation and plantation agriculture in the American South,1860-1880[J].American Journal of Sociology,2004,109(6):1365-1410.
[11]Arthur R.,Nicholson A.,Sibani P.,Christensen M..The tangled nature model for organizational ecology[J].Computational&Mathematical Organization Theory,2017(23):01-31.
[12]Hannan M.T.,Freeman J..Organizational ecology[M].Harvard University Press,1989.
[13]Kauffman S.A..The origins of order:Self-organization and selection in evolution[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1993.
[14]吴建祖,廖颖.NK模型及其在组织与战略管理研究中的应用[J].外国经济与管理,2010,32(10):34-41.Wu Jianzu,Liao Ying.NK model and its application in organization and strategic management research[J].Foreign Economics&Management,2010,32(10):34-41.
[15]高长元,何晓燕.基于NK模型的HTVIC知识创新适应性提升研究[J].科学学研究,2014,32(11):1732-1746.Gao Changyuan,He Xiaoyan.Research on improving adaptability of HTVIC’s knowledge innovation based on NK model[J].Studies in Science of Science,2014,32(11):1732-1746.
[16]Tuma N.B.,Hannan M.T..Social dynamics:Models and methods[M].San Francisco,CA:Academic Press,1984.
[17]彭璧玉.组织生态学理论述评[J].经济学家,2006,5(5):111-117.Peng Biyu.Review on the theory of organizational ecology[J].Economist,2006,5(5):111-117.
[18]Braumann C.A.,Carlos C..Weak Allee effects population growth models in a random environment[R].Proceedings of the 60th ISI World Statistics Congress.Rio de Janeiro,Brazil,2015:2455-2460.
[19]Dennis B..Allee effects in stochastic populations[J].Oikos,2002,96(3):389-401.
[20]Ovaskainen O.,Meerson B..Stochastic models of population extinction[J].Trends in Ecology&Evolution,2010,25(11):643-652.
[21]Braumann C.A..Growth and extinction of populations in randomly varying environments[J].Computers&Mathematics with Applications,2008,56(3):631-644.
[22]Henle K.,Sarre S.,Wiegand K..The role of density regulation in extinction processes and population viability analysis[J].Biodiversity and Conservation,2004,13(1):09-52.
[23]Griffen B.D.,Drake J.M..Effects of habitat quality and size on extinction in experimental populations[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences,2008,275(1648):2251-2256.
[24]Zarada K.,Drake J.M..Time to extinction in deteriorating environments[J].Theoretical Ecology,2016:1-7.
[25]Dilao R.,Domingos T.,Shahverdiev E..Harvesting in a resource dependent age structured Leslie type population model[J].Mathematical Biosciences,2004,189(2):141-151.
[26]Marshall K.,Edwards-Jones G..Reintroducing capercaillie(Tetrao urogallus)into southern Scotland:identification of minimum viable populations at potential release sites[J].Biodiversity and Conservation,1998(7):275-296.
[27]Yukalov V.I.,Yukalova E.P.,Sornette D..Extreme events in population dynamics with functional carrying capacity[J].The European Physical Journal Special Topics,2012,205(1):313-354.
[28]龙跃,易树平.基于Lotka-Volterra的汽车零部件横向企业协调决策分析[J].科研管理,2009,V30(3):67-73.Long Yue,Yi Shuping.Study on horizontal cooperative decision-making mechanism of auto parts enterprises based on the Lotka-Volterra model[J].Science Research Management,2009,V30(3):67-73.
[29]Brent H.K..Computer simulation:What’s the story?[J].American Journal of Management,2013,13(2):22-35.
[30]王其藩.系统动力学(2009年修订版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2009.Wang Qifan.System dynamics[M].Shanghai:Shanghai University of Finance and Economics press,2009.
[31]钟永光,贾晓菁,钱颖等.系统动力学第2版[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.Zhong Yongguang,Jia Xiaojing,Qian Ying,et al.System dynamics second edition[M].Beijing:Science Press,2013.
[32]Lomi A.,Larsen E.R.,Freeman J.H..Things change:Dynamic resource constraints and systems-Dependent selection in the evolution of organizational populations[J].Management Science,2005,51(6):882-903.