国际能源价格与我国粮食价格的不对称传导关系研究
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摘要
随着生物能源产量的增加,粮食和能源价格之间的联系变得更加复杂。文章使用门限自回归模型研究国际石油、生物乙醇、玉米价格与我国玉米价格之间的不对称传导关系。生物乙醇价格、我国玉米价格受到国际石油价格、国际玉米价格变动的显著影响,但是我国玉米价格对它们都没有影响。我国玉米价格对来自国际石油、生物乙醇、国际玉米价格的"负向"冲击比"正向"冲击的反应更为强烈,调控措施因此在实施时机、力度与节奏方面应该有所不同。
As bioenergy production increases,the link between food and energy prices becomes more complex.In this paper,Threshold autoregressive model was used to study the asymmetric transmission relationship between international oil,bioethanol,corn prices and China's corn prices.Bioethanol price and maize price in China are significantly affected by the changes of international oil price and International Maize price,but the price of Maize in China has no effect on them.China's corn price has a stronger response to the "negative" shocks from international oil,bioethanol and corn prices than the "positive" shocks. Therefore, the timing,intensity and rhythm of the implementation of regulatory measures should be different.
As bioenergy production increases,the link between food and energy prices becomes more complex.In this paper,Threshold autoregressive model was used to study the asymmetric transmission relationship between international oil,bioethanol,corn prices and China's corn prices.Bioethanol price and maize price in China are significantly affected by the changes of international oil price and International Maize price,but the price of Maize in China has no effect on them.China's corn price has a stronger response to the "negative" shocks from international oil,bioethanol and corn prices than the "positive" shocks. Therefore, the timing,intensity and rhythm of the implementation of regulatory measures should be different.
引文
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[7]李丰,朱瑶瑶.国际原油价格对国内玉米价格的溢出效应分析——基于VECM-BEKK-GARCH模型[J].粮食科技与经济,2017,42(6):38-39+72.
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[10]ENDERS W,SIKLOS P. Cointegration and threshold adjustment[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,2001(2):166-176.
[11]TONG H.Non-linear time-series:a dynamical system approach[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1990.
[2]SERLETIS A,XU L B.The ethanol mandate and crude oil and biofuel agricultural commodity price dynamics[EB/OL].(2018-07-01)[2019-05-13].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2018.07.001.
[3]仇焕广,杨军,黄季焜.生物燃料乙醇发展及其对近期粮食价格上涨的影响分析[J].农业经济问题,2009(1):80-85.
[4]ABDELRADI F,SERRA T.Asymmetric price volatility transmission between food and energy markets:the case of spain[J].Agricultural Economics,2015(46):503-513.
[5]CABRERA B L,SCHULZ F.Volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodity prices[J].Energy Economics,2016(54):190-203.
[6]SAGHAIAN S,NEMATI M,WALTERS C,et al. Asymmetric price volatility transmission between U.S. biofuel,corn,and oil markets[J].Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2018(1):46-60.
[7]李丰,朱瑶瑶.国际原油价格对国内玉米价格的溢出效应分析——基于VECM-BEKK-GARCH模型[J].粮食科技与经济,2017,42(6):38-39+72.
[8]SIMIONI M,GONZALES F,GUILLOTREAU P,et al. Detecting asymmetric price transmission with consistent threshold along the fish supply chain[J].Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics,2013(1):37-60.
[9]周金城.我国农产品价格波动的非线性动态调整研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2014.
[10]ENDERS W,SIKLOS P. Cointegration and threshold adjustment[J].Journal of Business&Economic Statistics,2001(2):166-176.
[11]TONG H.Non-linear time-series:a dynamical system approach[M].New York:Oxford University Press,1990.