“莫兰蒂”外螺旋雨带在浙江局地发展引发大暴雨成因分析
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摘要
利用诊断和数值模拟相结合的方法,分析了2016年9月13—16日"莫兰蒂"台风在登陆福建南部北上后给浙江沿海地区带来的局地大暴雨天气,发现这次局地大暴雨发生在台风移动路径右侧,对流层低层强盛的东南气流促进了台风登陆减弱后其东北侧外螺旋雨带局地发展,导致这一区域对流发展旺盛,在浙江引发大暴雨天气。控制试验表明"莫兰蒂"东侧显著的东南到偏南气流导致外螺旋雨带中小尺度对流系统的发生发展,在"莫兰蒂"东北侧存在小尺度的对流耦合系统,小尺度雨带在涡度场和垂直运动场上正、负涡度中心和上升、下降运动交替分布的中小尺度波列结构明显,强降水就发生在此处。台风东侧显著的东南到偏南气流与"莫兰蒂"东南侧的"马勒卡"台风以及10～20 d的带通滤波场上台湾岛附近的气旋性涡旋密切相关。敏感性试验表明"马勒卡"台风和准双周振荡都对"莫兰蒂"路径有很重要的西北行引导作用,进而影响东南气流水汽输送和降水分布。
The possible reasons for heavy rainfall during 13-16 September,2016 caused by typhoon Meranti in Zhejiang Province were investigated by using numerical simulation output,NCEP reanalysis data,observed precipitation data from automatic stations and the Black Body Temperature data from infrared satellite observation. It was found that the heavy rain occurred on the right flank of the typhoon. The low-layer troposphere southeasterly flow promoted the reinforcing of the outer spiral rainbands in the northeastern quadrant of the typhoon after making landfall in Fujian,leading to an enhanced precipitation in Zhejiang. The control simulation indicated that the significant southeasterly to the southerly winds in the east of the typhoon led to the development of small-scale convective system in the outer spiral rainbands. These small-scale convective coupling systems were characterized by alternative positive and negative vorticity centers,corresponding with updrafts and downdrafts in the northeast of Meranti. The heavy precipitation region was accompanied with obvious wavelike structure. Diagnostic analysis also showed that the significant southeasterly to the southerly winds in the east of the Meranti were closely related to the typhoon Malakas and a large cyclonic gyre over the island of Taiwan on a quasi-biweekly oscillation time scale. The sensitivity experiments showed that typhoon Malakas and the quasi-biweekly oscillation played an important role in the northwestward-moving track,and water vapor transport and precipitation distribution.
The possible reasons for heavy rainfall during 13-16 September,2016 caused by typhoon Meranti in Zhejiang Province were investigated by using numerical simulation output,NCEP reanalysis data,observed precipitation data from automatic stations and the Black Body Temperature data from infrared satellite observation. It was found that the heavy rain occurred on the right flank of the typhoon. The low-layer troposphere southeasterly flow promoted the reinforcing of the outer spiral rainbands in the northeastern quadrant of the typhoon after making landfall in Fujian,leading to an enhanced precipitation in Zhejiang. The control simulation indicated that the significant southeasterly to the southerly winds in the east of the typhoon led to the development of small-scale convective system in the outer spiral rainbands. These small-scale convective coupling systems were characterized by alternative positive and negative vorticity centers,corresponding with updrafts and downdrafts in the northeast of Meranti. The heavy precipitation region was accompanied with obvious wavelike structure. Diagnostic analysis also showed that the significant southeasterly to the southerly winds in the east of the Meranti were closely related to the typhoon Malakas and a large cyclonic gyre over the island of Taiwan on a quasi-biweekly oscillation time scale. The sensitivity experiments showed that typhoon Malakas and the quasi-biweekly oscillation played an important role in the northwestward-moving track,and water vapor transport and precipitation distribution.
引文
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[2]ZHANG Q,WU L,LIU Q. Tropical cyclone damages in China:1983-2006[J]. Bull Amer Mete Soc,2009,90:485-495.
[3]张娇艳,吴立广,张强.全球变暖背景下我国热带气旋灾害趋势分析[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(4):442-454.
[4]端义宏,陈联寿,梁建茵,等.台风登陆前后异常变化的研究进展[J].气象学报,2014,72(5):969-986.
[5]王君,康雯瑛,张霞,等.一次台风倒槽暴雨过程的螺旋度分析[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(2):25-30.
[6]范学峰,席世平.湿位涡诊断分析在河南台风远距离降水中的应用[J].气象与环境科学,2012,35(2):25-32.
[7]谭锐志,林元弼.台风暴雨积云参数化试验[J].大气科学,1994,18(3):331-340.
[8]沈晓玲,孙琦旻.“菲特”台风暴雨成因分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):33-39.
[9]黄小丹,黄先伦,麦宗天,等. 3个登陆台风引发阳江特大暴雨的水汽输送对比分析[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(3):61-69.
[10]曹楚,王忠东,刘峰,等. 2013年“菲特”台风暴雨成因及湿位涡诊断分析[J].气象与环境科学,2016,39(4):86-92.
[11]陈联寿.热带气旋灾害及其研究进展[J].气象,2010,36(7):101-110.
[12]段丽,陈联寿.热带风暴“菲特”Winnie(0114)特大暴雨的诊断研究[J].大气科学,2005,29(3):343-353.
[13]雷小途,陈联寿.热带气旋与中纬度环流系统相互作用的研究进展[J].热带气象学报,2001,17(4):452-461.
[14]韩桂荣,唐晓文,魏建苏.登陆台风变性发展与消亡的对比分析[J].气象科学,2007,27(1):35-41.
[15]李英,陈联寿,雷小途.变性台风Winnie(9711)环流中的锋生现象[J].大气科学,2008,32(3):629-639.
[16]腾代高,罗哲贤,代刊,等.登陆热带风暴Bilis(2006)暴雨特征及其可能原因[J].南京气象学院学报,2008,27(1):35-41.
[17]LI Y,CHEN L,QIAN C,et al. Study on formation and develop-ment of a mesoscale convergence line in typhoon rananim[J]. ActaMeteorologica Sinica,2010,24(4):413-425.
[18]YANG C C,WU C C,CHOU K H,et al. Binary interaction be-tween Typhoons Fengshen(2002)and Fungwong(2002)basedon the potential vorticity diagnosis[J]. Monthly Weather Review,2008,136(12):4593-611.
[19]陈联寿,孟智勇.我国热带气旋研究十年进展[J].大气科学,2001,25(3):420-432.
[20]祝启桓,张淑云,顾强民,等.浙江省灾害性天气预报[M].北京:气象出版社,1992:49-58.
[21]陈有利,钱燕珍,潘灵杰,等.一次与台风相关联的浙江东北部暴雨成因及预报难点分析[J].干旱气象,2018,36(2):272-281.
[22]KURIHARA Y,BENDER M A,TULEYA R E,et al. Predictionexperiments of Hurricane Gloria(1985)using a multiply nestedmovable mesh model[J]. Mon Wea Rev,1990,118:2185-2198.
[23]LANCZOS C. Applied Analysis[M]. Englewood Cliffs,NJ:Pren-tice Hall,1956:539.
[24]DUCHON C E. Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions[J]. JAppl Meteor,1979,18(8):1016-1022.
[25]WU L,LIANG J,WU C C. Monsoonal influence on typhoon Mora-kot(2009). Part I:observational analysis[J]. J Atmot Sci,2011,68(10):2208-2221.
[26]CHING S E,JOHNNY C L,EDWIN S T L. Tropical cyclone land-fall along the south China coast[C]//24th Conference on Hurri-canes and Tropical Meteorology,May 29-June 2,2000,FortLauderale,Florida:Amer Meteor Soc,2000:274-275.
[27]DODGE P,SPRATT S M,MARKS F D,et al. Dual-Doppler a-nalysis of mesovortices in a hurricane rainband[C]//24th Confer-ence on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,May 29-June 2,2000,Fort Lauderale,Florida:Amer Meteor Soc,2000:302-303.
[28]KLEMP J. Dynamics of tornadic thunderstorms[J]. Ann Rev FluidMech,1987,19:369-402.