“一带一路”地区铜资源供需格局趋势分析
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摘要
铜是重要的有色金属资源,"一带一路"地区铜资源需求旺盛。通过系统分析"一带一路"地区铜资源现状和供需格局的历史演化,从消费、产能、回收以及勘查投入等方面讨论了未来的需求趋势和供应前景。"一带一路"地区已成为世界铜资源的消费中心,除中亚和中东欧外精炼铜消费均保持快速增长;2025年前后精炼铜需求总量将达到峰值(2 330万t),考虑产能增长及二次铜回收的情况下,矿山铜供应缺口仍在300万t(金属量)以上,"一带一路"地区铜资源供应形势不容乐观。
Copper is an important nonferrous metal resource. The Belt and Road( B&R) region is a copper consumption giant. By synthesizing historical and predicted data,the copper resources supply and consumption patterns and future trend in this region are discussed from several aspects of supply,consumption,production capacity,recycling and exploration budget. At present,the B&R region has become the copper consumption center of the world,the productions of refined copper in the regions except Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe are increasing rapidly. The regional demand for refined copper will reach the peak by the year 2025. And the shortage in copper mine supply will reach up to 3 million ton( copper content) even after taking the capacity growth and secondary copper supply into consideration. So the situation of copper resource supply in the B&R region is far from optimistic in the future.
Copper is an important nonferrous metal resource. The Belt and Road( B&R) region is a copper consumption giant. By synthesizing historical and predicted data,the copper resources supply and consumption patterns and future trend in this region are discussed from several aspects of supply,consumption,production capacity,recycling and exploration budget. At present,the B&R region has become the copper consumption center of the world,the productions of refined copper in the regions except Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe are increasing rapidly. The regional demand for refined copper will reach the peak by the year 2025. And the shortage in copper mine supply will reach up to 3 million ton( copper content) even after taking the capacity growth and secondary copper supply into consideration. So the situation of copper resource supply in the B&R region is far from optimistic in the future.
引文
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[3]World Bank.World bank open data[EB/OL].(2017-10-13)[2017-11-29].https://data.worldbank.org.
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[9]U.N.Comtrade Database.International trade statistics[EB/OL].(2017-05-12)[2017-12-08].https://comtrade.un.org/data.
[10]王安建,王高尚,张建华.矿产资源与国家经济发展[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.
[11]王安建,王高尚,陈其慎,等.矿产资源需求理论与模型预测[J].地球学报,2010(2):137-147.
[12]王安建,王高尚,周凤英.能源和矿产资源消费增长的极限与周期[J].地球学报,2017(1):3-10.
[13]International Copper Study Group.ICSG online statistical database[EB/OL].(2017-10-11)[2017-12-06].http://www.icsg.org/index.php/external-database.
[14]S&P Global Market Intelligence.Exploration budget in perspective[EB/OL].(2017-12-31)[2018-01-14].https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#industry/Commodity Exploration Budget InPerspective.
[15]柳群义,王安建,陈其慎.2040年全球铜需求趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2014(8):15-18.
[16]羊建波,许志斌,彭浩,等.全球铜资源供需格局趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2015(6):1-5.