基于物质流分析的中国金属铜资源生态效率研究
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摘要
铜是战略物资,其高效利用关系国民经济发展及国家工业化进程。本文运用物质流分析方法,建立了金属铜资源物质流模型,在此基础上,通过层次分析与熵权法构建了铜资源生态效率评价体系,对中国1990年、1995年、2000—2015年铜资源生态效率进行评价,结果显示:单位时间内铜资源生命周期内所产生的可有效利用的金属铜及其附属产品的物质及经济价值总量在1990—2015年间呈先降、后升、再降趋势;铜资源生产、加工、消费和回收过程中所消耗的能源总量及废弃物排放所产生的环境负荷自1990年开始逐年减小;生态效率在1990—2015年期间逐年攀升,于2011年进入中效状态。之后基于未来铜资源生态效率的三种情景进行分析,在情景1和情景2下:2050年中国铜资源生态效率分别达到3.10和3.65,是中效的中等水平和中效的偏高水平;在情景3中:2050年生态效率为4.45,分别为1990年、2000年、2010年、2015年生态效率的3.89、4.15、2.32、1.80倍,铜行业发展状态已达到"微耗损型发展,可持续"的初等水平,预计之后将稳定在4.45左右。依照以上研究结果,铜行业的发展应坚持经济效益和节能环保相结合的方式,以期未来走上绿色、可持续的发展道路。
As an important strategic resources, the use of copper in an efficient way is related to the national economic development and industrialization process. The material flow model of copper resources was established by using material flow analysis. And then, constructing the ecological efficiency evaluation system of copper resources by AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy method was conducted. Next, evaluating the copper resources ecological efficiency was performed in China in 1990, 1995, and 2000-2015. The results showed that the MV(Material Flow Analysis and Value Chain Analysis) data were in a fluctuating state in the period 1990-2015; and the EE(Energy Consumption and Environmental Load) began to decrease yearly following 1990. The CREE(Copper Resources Ecological Efficiency) kept increasing in the period from 1990 to 2015,which reached the medium efficiency level in 2011. Furthermore, three scenario analysis for different copper resources ecological efficiency conditions was carried out. Under the first and second scenarios: the CREE is 3.10 and 3.65, which is in the middle level and in the high level of medium efficiency when it reached 2050, respectively. Simultaneously, under the third scenario:the CREE in 2050 is 4.45, which is 3.89, 4.15, 2.32, and 1. 80 times of the CREE in 1990, 2000,2010, and 2015, respectively. It is noted that the development of copper industry has reached the theory of"micro consumption, development, sustainability"and the CREE is expected to be stable at about 4. 45. According to the above research results, the development of the copper industry should adhere to the way of the combination of economic efficiency, energy saving, and environmental protection, so as to embark on a green and sustainable development in the future.
As an important strategic resources, the use of copper in an efficient way is related to the national economic development and industrialization process. The material flow model of copper resources was established by using material flow analysis. And then, constructing the ecological efficiency evaluation system of copper resources by AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and entropy method was conducted. Next, evaluating the copper resources ecological efficiency was performed in China in 1990, 1995, and 2000-2015. The results showed that the MV(Material Flow Analysis and Value Chain Analysis) data were in a fluctuating state in the period 1990-2015; and the EE(Energy Consumption and Environmental Load) began to decrease yearly following 1990. The CREE(Copper Resources Ecological Efficiency) kept increasing in the period from 1990 to 2015,which reached the medium efficiency level in 2011. Furthermore, three scenario analysis for different copper resources ecological efficiency conditions was carried out. Under the first and second scenarios: the CREE is 3.10 and 3.65, which is in the middle level and in the high level of medium efficiency when it reached 2050, respectively. Simultaneously, under the third scenario:the CREE in 2050 is 4.45, which is 3.89, 4.15, 2.32, and 1. 80 times of the CREE in 1990, 2000,2010, and 2015, respectively. It is noted that the development of copper industry has reached the theory of"micro consumption, development, sustainability"and the CREE is expected to be stable at about 4. 45. According to the above research results, the development of the copper industry should adhere to the way of the combination of economic efficiency, energy saving, and environmental protection, so as to embark on a green and sustainable development in the future.
引文
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[2]Singer D A.Future copper resources[J].Ore Geology Reviews,2017,86:271-279.
[3]王俊博,范蕾,李新,等.基于物质流方法的中国铜资源社会存量研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(5):939-947.[Wang J B,Fan L,Li X,et al.Research on the social stock of copper resources in China based on the material flow analysis[J].Resources Science,2016,38(5):939-947.]
[4]羊建波.全球铜资源供需格局趋势分析[J].中国矿业,2015,24(6):1-5.[Yang J B.Trend analysis of global copper resources supply and demand pattern[J].China Mining Magazine,2015,24(6):1-5.]
[5]Zeng G,Yang J,Song X,et al.Energy consumption and carbon emissions scenario analysis of pyrometallurgical copper based on LCA[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2012,22(4):46-50.
[6]吴龙,郝以党.铜渣资源化利用现况及高效化利用探讨[J].中国有色冶金,2015,44(2):61-64.[Wu L,Hao Y D.Discussion on utilization status and high efficiency utilization of copper slag[J].China Nonferrous Metallurgy,2015,44(2):61-64.]
[7]成金华,孙琼,郭明晶,等.中国生态效率的区域差异及动态演化研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):47-54.[Cheng JH,Sun J,Guo M J,et al.Research on regional disparity and dynamic evolution of eco-efficiency in China[J].China Population Resources and Environment,2014,24(1):47-54.]
[8]Zhang L,Cai Z,Yang J,et al.The future of copper in China-a perspective based on analysis of copper flows and stocks[J].Science of the Total Environment,2015,536:142-149.
[9]Chen W,Wang M,Li X.Analysis of copper flows in the United States:1975-2012[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2016,111:67-76.
[10]Amneklev J,Augustsson A,S?rme L,et al.Monitoring urban copper flows in Stockholm,Sweden:implications of changes over time[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2016,(5):70-74.
[11]Melnykov A M,Herasymenko T V.Evaluation of world resources of copper raw material[J].Scientific Bulletin of National Mining University,2014,(5):123-127.
[12]崔荣国,郭娟,徐桂芬,等.全球铜的生产与消费及其未来需求预测[J].资源科学,2015,37(5):944-950.[Cui R G,Guo J,Xu GF,et al.Production,consumption rules and demand prediction of global copper[J].Resources Science,2015,37(5):944-950.]
[13]Wei F L,Min S C,Yang L,et al.Empirical analysis of China's copper import influencing factors:a cointegration and granger test approach[J].Mathematics in Practice&Theory,2015,(3):121-124.
[14]Wan H K,Mu D,Peng M.Research on the sustainable development of copper metallurgy chain[J].International Conference on Management Science and Engineering,2013,20(4):1161-1167.
[15]樊欢欢,王洪涛,谢阿弟,等.精炼铜行业的生命周期节能减排目标评价[J].生态毒理学报,2014,9(4):737-743.[Fan H H,Wang H T,Xie A D,et al.Life cycle energy conservation and emission reduction targets assessment of refined copper industry[J].Asian Journal of Ecotoxicology,2014,9(4):737-743.]
[16]刘志宏.中国铜冶炼节能减排现状与发展[J].有色金属科学与工程,2014,(5):1-12.[Liu Z H.Present situation and development of China's copper smelting energy saving and emission reduction[J].Nonferrous Metals Science and Engineering,2014,(5):1-12.]
[17]岳强,陆钟武.关于中国铜的资源效率研究[J].世界有色金属,2006,(3):68-70.[Yue Q,Lu Z W.A study about copper resource efficiency for China[J].World Nonferrous Metal,2006,(3):68-70.]
[18]Wang C,Zuo L,Hu P,et al.Evaluation and simulation analysis of China's copper security evolution trajectory[J].Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China,2013,23(8):2465-2474.
[19]Reuter M A,Kojo I V.Copper:a key enabler of resource efficiency[J].World Metall-Erzmetall,2014,67(1):5-12.
[20]中国有色金属工业协会.中国有色金属工业年鉴[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,1990-2017.[China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association.The Year Book of Non-Ferrous Metals Industry of China[M].Beijing:Metallurgical Industry Press,1990-2017.]
[21]International Copper Study Group.ICSG Statistical Yearbook[M].Lisbon:Annual Publication,1990-2017.
[22]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国能源统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,1990-2017.[National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China.China Energy Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistics Press,1990-2017.]
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[24]岳强.物质流分析,生态足迹分析及其应用[D].沈阳:东北大学,2006.[Yue Q.Material Flow Analysis,Ecological Footprint Analysis and Its Application[D].Shenyang:Northeastern University,2006.]
[25]Chen M X,Lu D D,Zhang H.Comprehensive evaluation and the driving factors of China's urbanization[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):387-398.
[26]张希忠.中国再生铜工业现状及发展前景[J].资源再生,2003,(2):11-13.[Zhang X Z.The present situation and development prospect of China's renewable copper industry[J].Resource Recycling,2003,(2):11-13.]
[27]徐传华.中国再生有色金属生产现状及前景[J].世界有色金属,2004,(4):9-15.[Xu C H.Present situation and prospect of China's renewable copper industry[J].World Nonferrous Metal,2004,(4):9-15.]
[28]岳强,陆钟武.中国铜循环现状分析(Ⅰ)-“STAF”方法[J].中国资源综合利用,2005,(4):6-11.[Yue Q,Lu Z W.An analysis of contemporary copper cycle in China(Ⅰ)-"STAF"method[J].China Resources Comprehensive Utilization,2005,(4):6-11.]
[29]何逢标.综合评价方法MATLAB实现[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2010.[He F B.Comprehensive Evaluation Method MAT-LAB Implementation[M].Beijing:China Social Sciences Press,2010.]
[30]Saling P.Eco-efficiency Assessment[M].Dordrecht:Springer Netherlands,2016.
[31]Clarke A E,Friese C,Washburn R.Situational Analysis:Grounded Theory after the Interpretative Turn[M].London:Left Coast Press,2016.
[32]Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.Domestic Product-GDP Long-term Forecast-OECD Data[EB/OL].(2014-10-09)[2017-05-22].https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdplong-term-forecast.htm.
[33]Hui L Y,Suo C D,Yu L,et al.Contrastive study of the circular economy of coal resource city based on ecological efficiency and Cmodel[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2016,7(5):323-333.
[34]国家发展和改革委员会.《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》辅导读本[M].北京:人民出版社,2016.[National Development and Reform Commission.The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China[M].Beijing:People's Publishing House,2016.]
[35]Xu X,Yang G,Tan Y,et al.Factors influencing industrial carbon emissions and strategies for carbon mitigation in the Yangtze River Delta of China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,142:3607-3616.
[36]马昌盛.2030年:中国环境污染将跨越恶化拐点[J].节能与环保,2013,(6):44-45.[Ma C S.2030:China's environmental pollution will cross the turning point[J].Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection,2013,(6):44-45.]
[37]吕晓红,杨长华.1999年铜市场的回顾及2000年预测[J].世界有色金属,2000,(3):2-10.[Lv X H,Yang C H.Review of copper market in 1999 and forecast in 2000[J].World Nonferrous Metal,2000,(3):2-10.]
[38]Hitt M A,Xu K.The transformation of China:Effects of the institutional environment on business actions[J].Long Range Planning,2016,49(5):589-593.
[39]Cao G,Han Y,Li Q,et al.Asymmetric MF-DCCA method based on risk conduction and its application in the Chinese and foreign stock markets[J].Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications,2017,468:119-130.
[40]国家环境保护总局.1990年中国环境状况公报[J].环境保护,1991,(8):2-4.[Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China.China environmental status bulletin 1990[J].Environmental Protection,1991,(8):2-4.]
[41]国家环境保护总局.2000年中国环境状况公报[J].环境保护,2001,(7):3-9.[Ministry of Environmental Protection of the People's Republic of China.China environmental status bulletin 2000[J].Environmental Protection,2001,(7):3-9.]
[42]国家发展和改革委员会.《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》辅导读本[M].北京:人民出版社,2011.[National Development and Reform Commission.The Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China[M].Beijing:People's Publishing House,2011.]