沂沭断裂带两侧地区地震能量释放与块体相对运动的关系
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摘要
日本M_W9.0地震后沂沭断裂带及其两侧地区中小地震活动频繁。文中利用连续GPS数据和滑动块体模型研究了上述地震活动的能量释放过程与沂沭断裂带两侧块体相对运动过程的关系,为该地区的地震危险性分析提供依据。结果表明:1)沂沭断裂带周围250~500km、时间窗长为3~10月的地震总释放能量折算震级M与两侧块体相对运动呈较好的相关性,最优相关系数为0.74,T检验显示两者显著线性相关;2)两者相关性的空间分布显示两侧块体的相对运动对沂沭断裂带北部至胶东半岛地区及鲁西南—河南交界地区的地震能量释放影响明显;3)研究区总释放能量折算震级M与两侧块体的相对运动速率V呈M=0.51×V+3.9的线性关系,2015年底—2016年研究区存在地震能量积累现象,2017年发生的长岛震群可能与此有关。
Following the 11 March 2011 Japan MW9. 0 earthquake,frequent moderate and small events occurred on the Yishu fault zone and its either side. Using continuous GPS data and a sliding block model,this work studies the relationship between the energy release of these shocks and the block relative motion of either side of the Yishu fault zone. The results show that( 1) the equivalent magnitude M from released energy and the two blocks' relative motion are well correlated when earthquakes are selected in a retrieval circle( whose center is the midpoint of the Yishu fault zone)with a radius of 250 ~ 500 km and using a sliding time window of 3 ~ 10 months. The best correlation coefficient between M and the two blocks' relative motion is 0. 74 and the T test shows a significant linear correlation between them.( 2) Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients shows that the relative motion of the blocks on both sides affects the energy release in the area from the north part of Yishu fault zone to the Jiaodong Peninsula area and southwest Shandong-Henan border area obviously.( 3) Since June 2014,the relative motion of the two blocks on both sides of the Yishu fault zone presents a wave of change,which may be an expression of the accumulation of seismic strain energy in the Yishu fault zone and its two sides. The linear relationship between the equivalent magnitude M from released energy and two blocks' relative motion V can be fitted by linear equation M = 0. 51* V+3. 9,showing that strain energy accumulation could be released by the moderate and small earthquakes in a timely manner,which may favorable to delay the seismic risk in the study area. It also shows,on the other hand,that earthquake energy was not released so completely in the study area since the end of 2015 to 2016,which is likely associated with the Changdao earthquake swarm in2017.
Following the 11 March 2011 Japan MW9. 0 earthquake,frequent moderate and small events occurred on the Yishu fault zone and its either side. Using continuous GPS data and a sliding block model,this work studies the relationship between the energy release of these shocks and the block relative motion of either side of the Yishu fault zone. The results show that( 1) the equivalent magnitude M from released energy and the two blocks' relative motion are well correlated when earthquakes are selected in a retrieval circle( whose center is the midpoint of the Yishu fault zone)with a radius of 250 ~ 500 km and using a sliding time window of 3 ~ 10 months. The best correlation coefficient between M and the two blocks' relative motion is 0. 74 and the T test shows a significant linear correlation between them.( 2) Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients shows that the relative motion of the blocks on both sides affects the energy release in the area from the north part of Yishu fault zone to the Jiaodong Peninsula area and southwest Shandong-Henan border area obviously.( 3) Since June 2014,the relative motion of the two blocks on both sides of the Yishu fault zone presents a wave of change,which may be an expression of the accumulation of seismic strain energy in the Yishu fault zone and its two sides. The linear relationship between the equivalent magnitude M from released energy and two blocks' relative motion V can be fitted by linear equation M = 0. 51* V+3. 9,showing that strain energy accumulation could be released by the moderate and small earthquakes in a timely manner,which may favorable to delay the seismic risk in the study area. It also shows,on the other hand,that earthquake energy was not released so completely in the study area since the end of 2015 to 2016,which is likely associated with the Changdao earthquake swarm in2017.
引文
薄万举.2013.GPS展示的中国大陆主要相对变形特征及强震活动研究[J].地球物理学进展,28(2):599-606.BO Wan-ju.2013.Mainly relative deformation features on China continent revealed by GPS and researches on strong earthquake activities[J].Progress in Geophysics,28(2):599-606(in Chinese).
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江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.2003.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,46(3):352-358.JIANG Zai-sen,MA Zong-jin,ZHANG Xi,et al.2003.Horizontal strain field and tectonic deformation of China mainland revealed by preliminary GPS result[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,46(3):352-358(in Chinese).
鞠林雪,朱光,王浩乾,等.2012.1668年郯城8级地震构造应力场分析[J].地质科学,47(3):836-850.JU Lin-xue,ZHU Guang,WANG Hao-qian,et al.2012.Stress field analysis of the 1668 M8Tancheng earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geology,47(3):836-850(in Chinese).
李延兴,李智,张静华,等.2004.中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场[J].地球物理学报,47(2):222-231.LI Yan-xing,LI Zhi,ZHANG Jing-hua,et al.2004.Horizontal strain field in the Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,47(2):222-231(in Chinese).
李延兴,张静华,李智,等.2006.太平洋板块俯冲对中国大陆的影响[J].测绘学报,35(2):99-105.LI Yan-xing,ZHANG Jing-hua,LI Zhi,et al.2006.The underthrust of Pacific plate to Eurasian plate and its effect on Chinese mainland[J].Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica,35(2):99-105(in Chinese).
马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.2003.中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究[J].地学前缘,10(S1):74-80.MA Hong-sheng,ZHANG Guo-min,LIU Jie,et al.2003.Correlation between strong earthquake activity and active crustal-block in China mainland and its adjacent regions[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(S1):74-80(in Chinese).
茂木清夫.1976.巨大地震论[J].数理科学,(158):16-23.MOGI K.1976.Huge earthquake theory[J].Mathematical Sciences,(158):16-23(in Chinese).
苏道磊,范建柯,吴时国,等.2016.山东地区地壳P波三维速度结构及其与地震活动的关系[J].地球物理学报,59(4):1335-1349.SU Dao-lei,FAN Jian-ke,WU Shi-guo,et al.2016.3-D P-wave velocity structures of crust and their relationship with earthquakes in the Shandong area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,59(4):1335-1349(in Chinese).
王敏,李强,王凡,等.2011.全球定位系统测定的2011年日本宫城MW9.0地震远场同震位移[J].科学通报,56(20):1593-1596.WANG Min,LI Qiang,WANG Fan,et al.2011.Far-field coseismic displacements associated with the 2011 Tohokuoki earthquake in Japan observed by Global Positioning System[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,56(23):2419-2424.
王敏,沈正康,甘卫军,等.2008.GPS连续监测鲜水河断裂形变场动态演化[J].中国科学(D辑),38(5):575-581.WANG Min,SHEN Zheng-kang,GAN Wei-jun,et al.2008.GPS monitoring of temporal deformation of the Xianshuihe fault[J].Science in China(Ser D),51(9):1259-1266.
王敏,沈正康,牛之俊,等.2003.现今中国大陆地壳运动与活动块体模型[J].中国科学(D辑),33(S1):21-32.WANG Min,SHEN Zheng-kang,NIU Zhi-jun,et al.2003.Present-day crustal movement and active block model of Chinese mainland[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(S1):21-32(in Chinese).
王志才,贾荣光,孙昭民,等.2005.沂沭断裂带安丘-莒县断裂安丘-朱里段几何结构与活动特征[J].地震地质,27(2):212-220.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2005.02.004.WANG Zhi-cai,JIA Rong-guang,SUN Zhao-min,et al.2005.Geometry and activity of the Anqiu-Zhuli segment of the Anqiu-Juxian fault in the Yishu fault zone[J].Seismology and Geology,27(2):212-220(in Chinese).
魏光兴,刁守中,周翠英.1993.郯庐带地震活动性研究[M].北京:地震出版社.WEI Guang-xing,DIAO Shou-zhong,ZHOU Cui-ying.1993.Study of Seismicity Along the Tancheng-Lujiang Seismic Zone[M].Earthquake Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
杨少敏,聂兆生,贾志革,等.2011.GPS解算的日本MW9.0地震的远场同震地表位移[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,36(11):1336-1339.YANG Shao-min,NIE Zhao-sheng,JIA Zhi-ge,et al.2011.Far-field coseismic surface displacement caused by the MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,36(11):1336-1339(in Chinese).
殷海涛,甘卫军,黄蓓,等.2013.日本M9.0巨震对山东地区地壳活动的影响研究[J].地球物理学报,56(5):1497-1505.YIN Hai-tao,GAN Wei-jun,HUANG Bei,et al.2013.Study on the effects of Japan M9.0 huge earthquake on the crustal movement of Shandong area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,56(5):1497-1505(in Chinese).
殷海涛,王强,朱成林,等.2011.山东及周边地块间近期运动状态分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,31(4):37-40,46.YIN Hai-tao,WANG Qiang,ZHU Cheng-lin,et al.2011.Analysis of present movement state of Shandong and surrounding blocks[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,31(4):37-40,46(in Chinese).
张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.2004.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学(D辑),34(7):591-599.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Hong-sheng,WANG Hui,et al.2004.The relation between active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes activities in the China mainland[J].Science in China(Ser D),34(7):591-599(in Chinese).
张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.2005.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,48(3):602-610.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Hong-sheng,WANG Hui,et al.2005.Boundaries between active-tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the China mainland[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,48(3):602-610(in Chinese).
张晶,刘峡,方颖,等.2012.日本9.0级地震前后华北形变场变化特征与地震趋势分析[J].地震,32(2):64-72.ZHANG Jing,LIU Xia,FANG Ying,et al.2012.Changing characteristics of the deformation field before and after the2011 Japan 9.0 earthquake and earthquake trend in Huabei,China[J].Earthquake,32(2):64-72(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(S1):12-20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2003.Strong earthquake activity in Chinese mainland and active blocks[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(S1):12-20(in Chinese).
张培震,王琪,马宗晋.2002.中国大陆现今构造运动的GPS速度场与活动地块[J].地学前缘,9(2):430-441.ZHANG Pei-zhen,WANG Qi,MA Zong-jin.2002.GPS velocity field and active crustal blocks of contemporary tectonic deformation in continental China[J].Earth Science Frontiers,9(2):430-441(in Chinese).
郑建常,王鹏,李冬梅,等.2013.使用小震震源机制解研究山东地区背景应力场[J].地震学报,35(6):773-784.ZHENG Jian-chang,WANG Peng,LI Dong-mei,et al.2013.Tectonic stress field in Shandong region inferred from small earthquake focal mechanism solutions[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,35(6):773-784(in Chinese).
朱成林,甘卫军,贾媛,等.2016.GPS测定沂沭断裂带两侧块体的相对运动状态[J].大地测量与地球动力学,36(1):57-61.ZHU Cheng-lin,GAN Wei-jun,JIA Yuan,et al.2016.Measuring the relative motion state between the two sides'blocks of Yishu fault zone by GPS[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,36(1):57-61(in Chinese).
Herring T A,King R W,Mc Clusky S C.2010.GAMIT Reference Manual:GPS Analysis at MIT.Release 10.4[M].Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary Sciences,Massachussetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,MA.
Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Freymueller J T,et al.2001.Present-day crustaldeformation in China constrained by global positioning system measurements[J].Science,294(5542):574-577.
晁洪太,王志才,刘西林.1999.郯庐断裂带下辽河-莱州湾段与潍坊-嘉山段地震构造和地震活动特征对比[J].华北地震科学,17(2):36-42.CHAO Hong-tai,WANG Zhi-cai,LIU Xi-lin.1999.Comparison of seismotectonics and seismicities between the Xialiaohe Laizhouwan segment and the Weifang-Jiashan segment of the Tancheng-Lujiang Fault zone[J].North China Earthquake Sciences,17(2):36-42(in Chinese).
江在森,马宗晋,张希,等.2003.GPS初步结果揭示的中国大陆水平应变场与构造变形[J].地球物理学报,46(3):352-358.JIANG Zai-sen,MA Zong-jin,ZHANG Xi,et al.2003.Horizontal strain field and tectonic deformation of China mainland revealed by preliminary GPS result[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,46(3):352-358(in Chinese).
鞠林雪,朱光,王浩乾,等.2012.1668年郯城8级地震构造应力场分析[J].地质科学,47(3):836-850.JU Lin-xue,ZHU Guang,WANG Hao-qian,et al.2012.Stress field analysis of the 1668 M8Tancheng earthquake[J].Chinese Journal of Geology,47(3):836-850(in Chinese).
李延兴,李智,张静华,等.2004.中国大陆及周边地区的水平应变场[J].地球物理学报,47(2):222-231.LI Yan-xing,LI Zhi,ZHANG Jing-hua,et al.2004.Horizontal strain field in the Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,47(2):222-231(in Chinese).
李延兴,张静华,李智,等.2006.太平洋板块俯冲对中国大陆的影响[J].测绘学报,35(2):99-105.LI Yan-xing,ZHANG Jing-hua,LI Zhi,et al.2006.The underthrust of Pacific plate to Eurasian plate and its effect on Chinese mainland[J].Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica,35(2):99-105(in Chinese).
马宏生,张国民,刘杰,等.2003.中国大陆及其邻区强震活动与活动地块关系研究[J].地学前缘,10(S1):74-80.MA Hong-sheng,ZHANG Guo-min,LIU Jie,et al.2003.Correlation between strong earthquake activity and active crustal-block in China mainland and its adjacent regions[J].Earth Science Frontiers,10(S1):74-80(in Chinese).
茂木清夫.1976.巨大地震论[J].数理科学,(158):16-23.MOGI K.1976.Huge earthquake theory[J].Mathematical Sciences,(158):16-23(in Chinese).
苏道磊,范建柯,吴时国,等.2016.山东地区地壳P波三维速度结构及其与地震活动的关系[J].地球物理学报,59(4):1335-1349.SU Dao-lei,FAN Jian-ke,WU Shi-guo,et al.2016.3-D P-wave velocity structures of crust and their relationship with earthquakes in the Shandong area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,59(4):1335-1349(in Chinese).
王敏,李强,王凡,等.2011.全球定位系统测定的2011年日本宫城MW9.0地震远场同震位移[J].科学通报,56(20):1593-1596.WANG Min,LI Qiang,WANG Fan,et al.2011.Far-field coseismic displacements associated with the 2011 Tohokuoki earthquake in Japan observed by Global Positioning System[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,56(23):2419-2424.
王敏,沈正康,甘卫军,等.2008.GPS连续监测鲜水河断裂形变场动态演化[J].中国科学(D辑),38(5):575-581.WANG Min,SHEN Zheng-kang,GAN Wei-jun,et al.2008.GPS monitoring of temporal deformation of the Xianshuihe fault[J].Science in China(Ser D),51(9):1259-1266.
王敏,沈正康,牛之俊,等.2003.现今中国大陆地壳运动与活动块体模型[J].中国科学(D辑),33(S1):21-32.WANG Min,SHEN Zheng-kang,NIU Zhi-jun,et al.2003.Present-day crustal movement and active block model of Chinese mainland[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(S1):21-32(in Chinese).
王志才,贾荣光,孙昭民,等.2005.沂沭断裂带安丘-莒县断裂安丘-朱里段几何结构与活动特征[J].地震地质,27(2):212-220.doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2005.02.004.WANG Zhi-cai,JIA Rong-guang,SUN Zhao-min,et al.2005.Geometry and activity of the Anqiu-Zhuli segment of the Anqiu-Juxian fault in the Yishu fault zone[J].Seismology and Geology,27(2):212-220(in Chinese).
魏光兴,刁守中,周翠英.1993.郯庐带地震活动性研究[M].北京:地震出版社.WEI Guang-xing,DIAO Shou-zhong,ZHOU Cui-ying.1993.Study of Seismicity Along the Tancheng-Lujiang Seismic Zone[M].Earthquake Press,Beijing(in Chinese).
杨少敏,聂兆生,贾志革,等.2011.GPS解算的日本MW9.0地震的远场同震地表位移[J].武汉大学学报·信息科学版,36(11):1336-1339.YANG Shao-min,NIE Zhao-sheng,JIA Zhi-ge,et al.2011.Far-field coseismic surface displacement caused by the MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,36(11):1336-1339(in Chinese).
殷海涛,甘卫军,黄蓓,等.2013.日本M9.0巨震对山东地区地壳活动的影响研究[J].地球物理学报,56(5):1497-1505.YIN Hai-tao,GAN Wei-jun,HUANG Bei,et al.2013.Study on the effects of Japan M9.0 huge earthquake on the crustal movement of Shandong area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,56(5):1497-1505(in Chinese).
殷海涛,王强,朱成林,等.2011.山东及周边地块间近期运动状态分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,31(4):37-40,46.YIN Hai-tao,WANG Qiang,ZHU Cheng-lin,et al.2011.Analysis of present movement state of Shandong and surrounding blocks[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,31(4):37-40,46(in Chinese).
张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.2004.中国大陆活动地块与强震活动关系[J].中国科学(D辑),34(7):591-599.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Hong-sheng,WANG Hui,et al.2004.The relation between active tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes activities in the China mainland[J].Science in China(Ser D),34(7):591-599(in Chinese).
张国民,马宏生,王辉,等.2005.中国大陆活动地块边界带与强震活动[J].地球物理学报,48(3):602-610.ZHANG Guo-min,MA Hong-sheng,WANG Hui,et al.2005.Boundaries between active-tectonic blocks and strong earthquakes in the China mainland[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,48(3):602-610(in Chinese).
张晶,刘峡,方颖,等.2012.日本9.0级地震前后华北形变场变化特征与地震趋势分析[J].地震,32(2):64-72.ZHANG Jing,LIU Xia,FANG Ying,et al.2012.Changing characteristics of the deformation field before and after the2011 Japan 9.0 earthquake and earthquake trend in Huabei,China[J].Earthquake,32(2):64-72(in Chinese).
张培震,邓起东,张国民,等.2003.中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J].中国科学(D辑),33(S1):12-20.ZHANG Pei-zhen,DENG Qi-dong,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.2003.Strong earthquake activity in Chinese mainland and active blocks[J].Science in China(Ser D),33(S1):12-20(in Chinese).
张培震,王琪,马宗晋.2002.中国大陆现今构造运动的GPS速度场与活动地块[J].地学前缘,9(2):430-441.ZHANG Pei-zhen,WANG Qi,MA Zong-jin.2002.GPS velocity field and active crustal blocks of contemporary tectonic deformation in continental China[J].Earth Science Frontiers,9(2):430-441(in Chinese).
郑建常,王鹏,李冬梅,等.2013.使用小震震源机制解研究山东地区背景应力场[J].地震学报,35(6):773-784.ZHENG Jian-chang,WANG Peng,LI Dong-mei,et al.2013.Tectonic stress field in Shandong region inferred from small earthquake focal mechanism solutions[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,35(6):773-784(in Chinese).
朱成林,甘卫军,贾媛,等.2016.GPS测定沂沭断裂带两侧块体的相对运动状态[J].大地测量与地球动力学,36(1):57-61.ZHU Cheng-lin,GAN Wei-jun,JIA Yuan,et al.2016.Measuring the relative motion state between the two sides'blocks of Yishu fault zone by GPS[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,36(1):57-61(in Chinese).
Herring T A,King R W,Mc Clusky S C.2010.GAMIT Reference Manual:GPS Analysis at MIT.Release 10.4[M].Department of Earth Atmosphericand Planetary Sciences,Massachussetts Institute of Technology,Cambridge,MA.
Wang Q,Zhang P Z,Freymueller J T,et al.2001.Present-day crustaldeformation in China constrained by global positioning system measurements[J].Science,294(5542):574-577.