摘要
概率积分法在我国煤矿开采地表沉陷预计领域得到了广泛应用,该方法具有对称分布特征,在水平煤层开采沉陷预计时精度最好,而倾斜煤层开采后地表下沉盆地的形态往往呈现偏态性,采用该方法对其进行预计偏差较大。针对此问题,建立了工作面随体坐标系和地表直角坐标系,利用随机介质理论在工作面随体坐标系中实现单元开采沉陷影响的叠加积分运算,然后将工作面随体坐标系中地表某点的沉陷影响转换到地表直角坐标系中,最终构建地表直角坐标系下的倾斜煤层开采沉陷偏态预计模型。分析认为,倾斜煤层单元开采引起的地表下沉符合威布尔偏态分布规律,结合实例对预计模型的有效性进行了验证。该模型预计精度随煤层倾角的增加而逐渐降低,研究结果可为相似矿区的沉陷预计提供理论和技术支持。
Probability integral method has been widely used in the prediction of coal mine surface subsidence in china. This prediction method has symmetrical distribution characteristics,and has the best accuracy in subsidence prediction of horizontal coal seam mining. After inclined coal seam mined out,the shape of surface subsidence basin tended to be skewed. When the probability integral method was used to predict,the prediction deviation was larger. To solve this problem,the paper established a body coordinate of coal face and surface rectangular coordinate system,using the stochastic medium theory to realize the superposition integral operation of unit mining subsidence influence in the frame of coordinate system of coal face,and established the mining subsidence prediction skewness model of inclined coal seam in the surface rectangular coordinate system. The analysis results showed that the surface subsidence caused by inclined coal seam mining is in line with the Weibull distribution law,and the validity of the prediction model is verified by an example. The study conclusions can provide theoretical and technical support for subsidence prediction of similar mining area.
引文
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