碳交易政策下低碳技术异地协同共享策略及减排收益研究
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摘要
基于中国碳排放权交易市场背景,文章综合考虑了低碳技术创新(共享)对减排收益的影响,以及本地区域技术创新和外部区域技术共享行为跨期效应特征.采用微分对策方法分析由本地区域低碳技术创新的努力程度和外部区域低碳技术共享努力程度共同决定的区域低碳技术存量动态策略问题.在相关假设的基础上,分别构建了无成本分担的分散式决策、成本分担下的分散式决策及集中式决策三种情形下的动态博弈模型,得到了各自的最优反馈均衡策略、低碳技术存量以及利润函数随时间变化的最优轨迹.通过对比三种情形下的反馈均衡策略、成本分担机制和合作创新机制对主体减排收益帕累托改进程度发现,集中决策情形下,本地区域和外部区域的低碳技术创新(共享)的努力程度较高,整体减排收益也比非合作时高,实现了Pareto最优;成本分担机制能够小范围地提高各主体的努力程度,适度改善减排收益.最后,通过数值仿真分析,验证了模型的有效性,并分析了在低碳技术合作创新情形下相关参数的灵敏性,为推进区域低碳技术异地协同共享长期合作提供了理论依据.
Based on the background of the carbon emissions trading market in China,the article considers the impact of low-carbon technology innovation(sharing)on emission reduction interests and the characteristics of inter-temporal effects of technology innovation and external technology sharing in local area.By using differential methods,this article also analyses the dynamic strategies of the regional low-carbon technology stock,which is jointly determined by both the efforts of the local low-carbon technology innovation and the external technology sharing.On the basis of the relevant assumptions,we construct the dynamic models under decentralized decision-making without cost-sharing,decentralized decision-making with cost-sharing and centralized decision-making respectively,and respectively obtain their optimal feedback equilibrium strategies,low-carbon technology stock and the optimal trajectory of profit value function over time.By comparing the three feedback equilibrium strategies,through the extent of Pareto improvement of both the cost-sharing mechanism and cooperative innovation mechanism to the main emission reduction interests,it is found that in the case of centralized decision-making,the more the efforts of lowcarbon technological innovation(sharing)in local regions and external regions are endeavored,the higher the overall emission reduction interests than those of non-cooperation to achieve the Pareto optimality.The cost-sharing mechanism can improve the efforts of all subjects and improve the emission reduction interests moderately.Finally,the validity of the model is verified through numerical simulation and the sensitivity of the relevant parameters in the case of cooperative innovation of low-carbon technology is analyzed.And relevant theoretical basis is provided for promoting the long-term cooperation of regional low-carbon technology collaborative sharing in different places.
Based on the background of the carbon emissions trading market in China,the article considers the impact of low-carbon technology innovation(sharing)on emission reduction interests and the characteristics of inter-temporal effects of technology innovation and external technology sharing in local area.By using differential methods,this article also analyses the dynamic strategies of the regional low-carbon technology stock,which is jointly determined by both the efforts of the local low-carbon technology innovation and the external technology sharing.On the basis of the relevant assumptions,we construct the dynamic models under decentralized decision-making without cost-sharing,decentralized decision-making with cost-sharing and centralized decision-making respectively,and respectively obtain their optimal feedback equilibrium strategies,low-carbon technology stock and the optimal trajectory of profit value function over time.By comparing the three feedback equilibrium strategies,through the extent of Pareto improvement of both the cost-sharing mechanism and cooperative innovation mechanism to the main emission reduction interests,it is found that in the case of centralized decision-making,the more the efforts of lowcarbon technological innovation(sharing)in local regions and external regions are endeavored,the higher the overall emission reduction interests than those of non-cooperation to achieve the Pareto optimality.The cost-sharing mechanism can improve the efforts of all subjects and improve the emission reduction interests moderately.Finally,the validity of the model is verified through numerical simulation and the sensitivity of the relevant parameters in the case of cooperative innovation of low-carbon technology is analyzed.And relevant theoretical basis is provided for promoting the long-term cooperation of regional low-carbon technology collaborative sharing in different places.
引文
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[26]陈文婕,曾德明,邹思明.全球低碳汽车技术合作创新网络演化路径研究[J].科研管理,2016(8):28-36.Chen W J,Zeng D M,Zou S M.A study of the evolutionary path of collaborative innovation network for low-carbon vehicle technology[J].Science Research Management,2016(8):28-36.
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[29]肖灵机,汪明月.战略性新兴产业知识异地协同共享机制研究[J].研究与发展管理,2016(3):36-46.Xiao L J,Wang M Y.Research on knowledge remote synergic sharing mechanism of strategic emerging industries[J].R&D Management,2016(3):36-46.
[30]Breton M,Zaccour G,Zahaf M.A differential game of joint implementation of environmental projects[J].Automatica,2005,41(10):1737-1749.
[31]赵道致,原白云,徐春秋.低碳环境下供应链纵向减排合作的动态协调策略[J].管理工程学报,2016,30(1):147-154.Zhao D Z,Yuan B Y,Xu C Q.Dynamic coordination strategy of vertical cooperative on carbon emission reduction in supply chain under low-carbon era[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2016,30(1):147-154.
[32]徐春秋,赵道致,原白云,等·上下游联合减排与低碳宣传的微分博弈模型[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(2):53-65.Xu C Q,Zhao D Z,Yuan B Y,et al.Differential game model on joint carbon emission reduction and low-carbon promotion in supply chains[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2016,19(2):53-65.
[33]荆克迪,安虎森,田柳.国际碳减排合作的博弈论分析[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2014(6):128-134.Jing K D,An H S,Tian L.Game theory analysis on international carbon emission reduction cooperation[J].Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities(Humanities and Social Science),2014(6):128-134.
[34]王明喜,王明荣,汪寿阳,等.最优减排策略及其实施的理论分析[J].管理评论,2010(6):42-47.Wang M X,Wang M R,Wang S Y,et al.A theoretical analysis of optimal emission reduction decision and its implementation[J].Management Review,2010(6):42-47.
[35]Jorgensena S,Zaccour G.Retail promotions with negative brand image effects:Is cooperation possible?[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,150(2):395-405.
[36]Brason A E,Ho Y Q.Apply optimal control:Optimization,estimation,and control[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,1982:141-143.
[37]王文宾,邓雯雯,白拓,等.碳排放约束下制造商竞争的逆向供应链政府奖惩机制研究[J].管理工程学报,2016(2):188-194.Wang W B,Deng W W,Bai T,et al.Design the reward-penalty mechanism for reverse supply chains based on manufacturers'competition and carbon footprint constraints[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2016(2):188-194.
[38]Li J F,Wang X,Zhang Y X,et al.The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China—An application of a computable general equilibrium approach[J].Energy Policy,2014,75:46-56.
[39]Li K,Lin B.Economic growth model,structural transformation,and green productivity in China[J].Applied Energy,2017,187:489-500.
[2]Edenhofer O,R.Pichs-Madrga R,Sokona Y,et al."IPCC special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation".Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge University Press,Cambridge,UK,2011.
[3]Quire C L,Moriarty R,Andrew R M,et al.Global carbon budget 2014[J].Earth System Science Data Discussions,2015,7(2):521-610.
[4]傅京燕.碳交易试点市场建设的中国经验[N].中国社会科学报,2016-11-04(006).Fu J Y.China experience in the construction of carbon trading pilot market[N].Social Sciences in China Press,2016-11-04(006).
[5]Jiang M X,Yang D X,Chen Z Y,et al.Market power in auction and efficiency in emission permits allocation[J].Journal of Environmental Management,2016,183(Pt3):576-584.
[6]孙慧,刘媛媛.中国区际碳排放差异与损益偏离现象分析[J].管理评论,2016,28(10):89-96.Sun H,Liu Y Y.Analysis on inter-regional differences of carbon emissions and loss and profit deviation in China[J].Management Review,2016,28(10):89-96.
[7]林伯强,黄光晓.梯度发展模式下中国区域碳排放的演化趋势——基于空间分析的视角[J].金融研究,2011(12):35-46.Lin B Q,Huang G X.Evolution trend of China's regional carbon emissions under the gradient development model—Based on the perspective of spatial analysis[J].Journal of Financial Research,2011(12):35-46.
[8]苑清敏,李想.基于产业梯度的京津冀合作减排分析[J].科技管理研究,2015(16):225-229.Yuan Q M,Li X.Analysis of cooperation reduction in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei based on industrial gradient[J].Science and Technology Management Research,2015(16):225-229.
[9]李炫榆,宋海清.区域减排合作路径探寻——基于结构效应与二氧化碳排放的空间面板数据实证分析[J].福建师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2015(1):29-35.Li X Y,Song H Q.Research on the cooperation paths of regional emission reduction—Based on the empirical analysis of spatial panel data of structural effect and carbon emission[J].Journal of Fujian Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition),2015(1):29-35.
[10]邢华.我国区域合作的纵向嵌入式治理机制研究:基于交易成本的视角[J].中国行政管理,2015(10):80-84.Xing H.The vertical embedding governance mechanism study of Chinese regional cooperation:Perspective based on transaction cost[J].Chinese Public Administration,2015(10):80-84.
[11]Uddin N,Taplin R.Regional cooperation in widening energy access and mitigating climate change:Current programs and future potential[J].Global Environmental Change,2015,35:497-504.
[12]王金南,宁淼,孙亚梅.区域大气污染联防联控的理论与方法分析[J].环境与可持续发展,2012,37(5):5-10.Wang J N,Ning M,Sun Y M.Study on theory and methodology about joint prevention and control of regional air pollution[J].Environment and Sustainable Development,2012,37(5):5-10.
[13]Wang Y.A game pattern analysis of the cooperation and competition of global carbon emission reduction[J].Advanced Materials Research,2012,524-527:2352-2355.
[14]Zhang B,Wang Z,Yin J,et al.C02,emission reduction within Chinese iron&steel industry:Practices,determinants and performance[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2012,33:167-178.
[15]Pan X Y,Zhao D,Wu C X.Enterprises,emission reduction cooperation in carbon supply chain[J].Open Cybernetics&Systemics Journal,2014,8(1):931-937.
[16]Nash J.Two-person cooperative games[J].Econometrical,1953,21(1):128-140.
[17]IPCC.Climate change 2007:To the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[18]王志国,李磊,杨善林,等.动态博弈下引导企业低碳技术创新的政府低碳规制研究[J].中国管理科学,2016(12):139-147.Wang Z G,Li L,Yang S L,et al.The research on government low-carbon regulation guiding enterprise low-carbon technology innovation in dynamic game[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2016(12):139-147.
[19]Elgar E,Freeman C.Innovation and growth,mark Dodgson and Roythwell[J].Handbook of Industrial Innovation,1994(5):76-87.
[20]UNRUH G C.Understanding carbon lock-in[J].Energy Policy,2000,28(12):817-830.
[21]Montalvo C.General wisdom concerning the factors affecting the adoption of cleaner technologies:Survey 1990-2007[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2008(16):7-13.
[22]王琳,陆小成.低碳技术创新的制度功能与路径选择[J].中国科技论坛,2012(10):98-102.Wang L,Lu X C.Research on the institutional function and path choice of the low-carbon technology innovation[J].Forum on Science and Technology in China,2012(10):98-102.
[23]徐建中,李奉书,李丽,等.企业外部关系质量对低碳技术创新的影响:基于知识视角的研究[J].中国软科学,2017(2):183-192.Xu J Z,Li F S,Li L,et al.The effect of external relationship quality on low carbon technology innovation:Knowledge perspective[J].China Soft Science,2017(2):183-192.
[24]徐建中,曲小瑜.低碳情境下装备制造企业技术创新行为的影响因素分析[J].科研管理,2015(3):29-37.Xu J Z,Qu X Y.An empirical study on the influencing factors of technological innovation behavior of equipment manufacturing enterprises under the circumstance of low carbon economy[J].Science Research Management,2015(3):29-37.
[25]孟凡生,韩冰.政府环境规制对企业低碳技术创新行为的影响机制研究[J].预测,2017(1):74-80.Meng F S,Han B.Research on impact of government environmental regulation on enterprises'low carbon technology innovation behavior[J].Foecasting,2017(1):74-80.
[26]陈文婕,曾德明,邹思明.全球低碳汽车技术合作创新网络演化路径研究[J].科研管理,2016(8):28-36.Chen W J,Zeng D M,Zou S M.A study of the evolutionary path of collaborative innovation network for low-carbon vehicle technology[J].Science Research Management,2016(8):28-36.
[27]徐莹莹,綦良群.基于复杂网络演化博弈的企业集群低碳技术创新扩散研究[J].中国人口.资源与环境,2016(8):16-24.Xu Y Y, Qi L Q.Research on low carbon technological innovation diffusion in enterprises clusters based on evolutionary game theory on complex networks[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2016(8):16-24.
[28]刘晓东,毕克新,叶惠.全球价值链下低碳技术突破性创新风险管理研究——以中国制造业为例[J].中国软科学,2016(11):152-166.Liu X D,Bi K X,Ye H.A study on risk management of radical innovation in low-carbon technologies in the global value chain:A case of the Chinese manufacturing industry[J].China Soft Science,2016(11):152-166.
[29]肖灵机,汪明月.战略性新兴产业知识异地协同共享机制研究[J].研究与发展管理,2016(3):36-46.Xiao L J,Wang M Y.Research on knowledge remote synergic sharing mechanism of strategic emerging industries[J].R&D Management,2016(3):36-46.
[30]Breton M,Zaccour G,Zahaf M.A differential game of joint implementation of environmental projects[J].Automatica,2005,41(10):1737-1749.
[31]赵道致,原白云,徐春秋.低碳环境下供应链纵向减排合作的动态协调策略[J].管理工程学报,2016,30(1):147-154.Zhao D Z,Yuan B Y,Xu C Q.Dynamic coordination strategy of vertical cooperative on carbon emission reduction in supply chain under low-carbon era[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2016,30(1):147-154.
[32]徐春秋,赵道致,原白云,等·上下游联合减排与低碳宣传的微分博弈模型[J].管理科学学报,2016,19(2):53-65.Xu C Q,Zhao D Z,Yuan B Y,et al.Differential game model on joint carbon emission reduction and low-carbon promotion in supply chains[J].Journal of Management Sciences in China,2016,19(2):53-65.
[33]荆克迪,安虎森,田柳.国际碳减排合作的博弈论分析[J].西南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2014(6):128-134.Jing K D,An H S,Tian L.Game theory analysis on international carbon emission reduction cooperation[J].Journal of Southwest University for Nationalities(Humanities and Social Science),2014(6):128-134.
[34]王明喜,王明荣,汪寿阳,等.最优减排策略及其实施的理论分析[J].管理评论,2010(6):42-47.Wang M X,Wang M R,Wang S Y,et al.A theoretical analysis of optimal emission reduction decision and its implementation[J].Management Review,2010(6):42-47.
[35]Jorgensena S,Zaccour G.Retail promotions with negative brand image effects:Is cooperation possible?[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2003,150(2):395-405.
[36]Brason A E,Ho Y Q.Apply optimal control:Optimization,estimation,and control[M].Beijing:National Defence Industry Press,1982:141-143.
[37]王文宾,邓雯雯,白拓,等.碳排放约束下制造商竞争的逆向供应链政府奖惩机制研究[J].管理工程学报,2016(2):188-194.Wang W B,Deng W W,Bai T,et al.Design the reward-penalty mechanism for reverse supply chains based on manufacturers'competition and carbon footprint constraints[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2016(2):188-194.
[38]Li J F,Wang X,Zhang Y X,et al.The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China—An application of a computable general equilibrium approach[J].Energy Policy,2014,75:46-56.
[39]Li K,Lin B.Economic growth model,structural transformation,and green productivity in China[J].Applied Energy,2017,187:489-500.