1960年以来河南省玉米气候生产潜力估算与种植空间优化
|
摘要
农作物生长直接依赖于降水、光照及温度等自然要素,对全球气候变化的影响最为敏感。基于河南省1960—2015年气候观测和太阳辐射量数据,采用逐步订正法估算了159个县级空间单元的玉米气候生产潜力,并进行河南省玉米种植空间的优化。结果表明:在全球气候变化背景下,受气温和降水双因素驱动,河南省玉米气候生产潜力在1960—2015年间呈倒U形的动态变化,玉米生产高气候潜力空间持续向豫西迁移,弱势气候潜力区自2000年来聚集于河南省北部地区。61. 11%的河南省玉米生产优势气候潜力区与玉米优势种植区现状重合,但其他各类型潜力区与种植区现状偏差较大。种植规模分为适当增加、逐步减少、保持稳定3种类型,提出河南省玉米种植空间优化方案和对策建议。
Crop growth directly depends on natural elements such as precipitation,light and temperature,and which is most sensitive to global climate change. Based on the meteorological observations and solar radiation data of Henan Province from 1960 to 2015,the corn climatic production potential of 159 countylevel spatial units was estimated by using the gradual correction method and the planting space of corn was optimized. The results showed that under the background of global climate change,driven by both temperature and precipitation,the climate productivity potential of maize in Henan Province showed an inverted U-shaped dynamic change from 1960 to 2015. The space of high climate potential of maize production continued to migrate to the west of Henan Province,and the disadvantaged climate potential areas were concentrated in the north of Henan Province since 2000. And 61. 11% of the advantage cultivation area coincided with the advantage potential area,but there was a big deviation between the other potential areas and the current situation of planting areas. There were three types of corn planting:increasing planting scale appropriately,decreasing planting scale gradually and maintaining stability.
Crop growth directly depends on natural elements such as precipitation,light and temperature,and which is most sensitive to global climate change. Based on the meteorological observations and solar radiation data of Henan Province from 1960 to 2015,the corn climatic production potential of 159 countylevel spatial units was estimated by using the gradual correction method and the planting space of corn was optimized. The results showed that under the background of global climate change,driven by both temperature and precipitation,the climate productivity potential of maize in Henan Province showed an inverted U-shaped dynamic change from 1960 to 2015. The space of high climate potential of maize production continued to migrate to the west of Henan Province,and the disadvantaged climate potential areas were concentrated in the north of Henan Province since 2000. And 61. 11% of the advantage cultivation area coincided with the advantage potential area,but there was a big deviation between the other potential areas and the current situation of planting areas. There were three types of corn planting:increasing planting scale appropriately,decreasing planting scale gradually and maintaining stability.
引文
[1]赵锦.气候变化背景下我国玉米产量潜力及提升空间研究[D].北京:中国农业大学,2015.ZHAO Jin. The potential yield and improvement of maize in China under climate change[D]. Beijing:China Agricultural University,2015.(in Chinese)
[2] BONNER J. The upper limit of crop yield[J]. Science,1962,137(3523):11-15.
[3] DE WIT C. Simulation of assimilation,respiration and transpiration of crops(simulation monographs)[J]. Agricultural Systems,1982,9(1):74-75.
[4] HANKS R J. Yield and water-use relationships:an overview[M]∥TAYLORETAL H M. Limitations to Efficient Water Use in Crop Production. Madison:Crop Science Society of America Press,1983.
[5]黄秉维.中国农业生产潜力——光合潜力[M]∥地理集刊(第17号),农业生产潜力研究.北京:科学出版社,1985:17-22.
[6]陈明荣,龙斯玉.中国气候生产潜力区划的探讨[J].自然资源,1984(3):72-79.CHEN Mingrong,LONG Siyu. China's climate productivity potential division[J]. Natural Resources,1984(3):72-79.(in Chinese)
[7]张丽娜,陈志,杨敏丽,等.我国玉米生产效率时空特征分析[J/OL].农业机械学报,2018,49(1):183-193. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? flag=1&file_no=20180123&journal_id=jcsam. DOI:10. 6041/j.issn. 1000-1298. 2018. 01. 023.ZHANG Li'na,CHEN Zhi,YANG Minli,et al. Spatio-temporal feature of maize production efficiency in main producing provinces of China[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(1):183-193.(in Chinese)
[8]裴占江,刘杰,史风梅,等.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].黑龙江农业科学,2017(8):112-118.PEI Zhanjiang,LIU Jie,SHI Fengmei,et al. Research progress on the effect of climate change about the agricultural production of China[J]. Heilongjiang Agricultural Science,2017(8):112-118.(in Chinese)
[9]刘博,杨晓光,王式功.东北地区主要粮食作物生产潜力估算与分析[C]∥S10气象与现代农业发展,2012.
[10]刘丹,李迎春.气候变化背景下江西省双季晚稻气候生产潜力的时空变化特征[J].西南农业学报,2018,31(1):184-191.LIU Dan, LI Yingchun. Characteristics of spatial-temporal of late rice production potential in Jiangxi Province under background of climate change[J]. Journal of Southwest Agriculture,2018,31(1):184-191.(in Chinese)
[11]刘哲,汪雪滢,刘帝佑,等.基于MODIS数据的黄淮海夏玉米高温风险空间分布[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(9):175-181.LIU Zhe,WANG Xueying,LIU Diyou,et al. Spatial distribution of high temperature risk on summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on MODIS data[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2018,34(9):175-181.(in Chinese)
[12]刘哲,乔红兴,赵祖亮,等.黄淮海夏播玉米花期高温热害空间分布规律研究[J/OL].农业机械学报,2015,46(7):272-279.[http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? flag=1&file_no=20150739&journal_id=jcsam. DOI:10. 6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2015. 07. 039.LIU Zhe,QIAO Hongxing,ZHAO Zuliang,et al. Study on the spatial distribution of high-temperature heat damage in the flowering period of maize under summer planting in Huang-huai-hai Plain[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(7):272-279.(in Chinese)
[13]庞艳梅,陈超,马振峰.未来气候变化对四川省水稻生育期气候资源及生产潜力的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(1):58-68.PANG Yanmei,CHEN Chao,MA Zhenfeng. Impacts of future climate change on climatic resources and production potential during growth period of rice in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2015,43(1):58-68.(in Chinese)
[14]孙世坤,蔡焕杰,王健.基于GIS的石羊河流域玉米气候生产潜力分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2010,38(6):211-219.SUN Shikun,CAI Huanjie,WANG Jian. Study on climatic potential productivity of maize based on GIS technology in Shiyang River Basin[J]. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2010,38(6):211-219.(in Chinese)
[15]王磊.气候变化对我国玉米种植区域划分的影响[D].长春:吉林大学,2015.WANG Lei. Impacts of climate change to area division of maize plating in China[D]. Changchun:Jilin University,2015.(in Chinese)
[16]马树庆.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:北京气象出版社,1996.
[17]马树庆,郭顺姬,白亚梅,等.东北区农业气候土壤资源潜力及开发利用研究[J].地理科学,1995(3):243-252,297.MA Shuqing,GUO Shungji,BAI Yamei,et al. The analysis of the potential productivity,exploitation and utilization of climate-soil resources in northeast China[J]. Geographic Sciences,1995(3):243-252,297.(in Chinese)
[18]王宗明,张柏,张树清,等.松嫩平原农业气候生产潜力及自然资源利用率研究[J].中国农业气象,2005(1):2-7.WANG Zongming,ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Shuqing,et al. Studies on agricultural climatic potential productivity and natural resources utilization ratio in Songnen Plain of Heilongjiang Province[J]. Agricultural Meteorology in China,2005(1):2-7.(in Chinese)
[19]中国主要农作物需水量等值线图协作组.中国主要农作物需水量等值线图研究[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993.
[20]刘战东,肖俊夫,南纪琴,等.播期对夏玉米生育期、形态指标及产量的影响[J].西北农业学报,2010,19(6):91-94.LIU Zhandong,XIAO Junfu,NAN Jiqin,et al. Effect of sowing date on growth period,morphology index and yield of summer maize[J]. Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica,2010,19(6):91-94.(in Chinese)
[21]王冬妮,郭春明,晏晓英,等.吉林省春玉米生产潜力估算及其时空变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(3):249-253.WANG Dongni,GUO Chunming,YAN Xiaoying,et al. Estimation of spring maize production potential in Jilin Province and analysis of its spatiotemporal characteristics[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Regions,2011,29(3):249-253.(in Chinese)
[22]赖荣生,余海龙,黄菊莹.宁夏中部干旱带气候变化及其对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(3):108-114.LAI Rongsheng,YU Hailong,HUANG Juying. Climate change in arid zone of central Ningxia and its influence on climate production potential of spring corn[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2014,19(3):108-114.(in Chinese)
[23]葛亚宁,刘洛,徐新良,等.近50 a气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力时空演变特征[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):784-795.GE Yaning,LIU Luo,XU Xinliang,et al. The spatial and temporal evolution of maize production potential in China under the background of climate change in the last 50 years[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(5):784-795.(in Chinese)
[24]侯亚兵.河南省玉米生产潜力及增产途径研究[D].郑州:河南农业大学,2007.HOU Yabing. The studies on the potential productivity and technology approach for increasing yield of maize in Henan Province[D]. Zhengzhou:Henan Agricultural University,2007.(in Chinese)
[25]申锦程.信阳市平桥区水稻种植气候区划[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(31):184-187.SHEN Jincheng. Climatic regionalization of rice planting:Pingqiao,Xinyang[J]. Chinese Agriculture Bulletin,2016,32(31):184-187.(in Chinese)
[26]杜国明,张露洋,徐新良,等.近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):864-874.DU Guoming,ZHANG Luyang,XU Xinliang,et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of maize production potential change under the background of climate change in Northeast China over the past 50 years[J]. Geographical Studies,2016,35(5):864-874.(in Chinese)
[2] BONNER J. The upper limit of crop yield[J]. Science,1962,137(3523):11-15.
[3] DE WIT C. Simulation of assimilation,respiration and transpiration of crops(simulation monographs)[J]. Agricultural Systems,1982,9(1):74-75.
[4] HANKS R J. Yield and water-use relationships:an overview[M]∥TAYLORETAL H M. Limitations to Efficient Water Use in Crop Production. Madison:Crop Science Society of America Press,1983.
[5]黄秉维.中国农业生产潜力——光合潜力[M]∥地理集刊(第17号),农业生产潜力研究.北京:科学出版社,1985:17-22.
[6]陈明荣,龙斯玉.中国气候生产潜力区划的探讨[J].自然资源,1984(3):72-79.CHEN Mingrong,LONG Siyu. China's climate productivity potential division[J]. Natural Resources,1984(3):72-79.(in Chinese)
[7]张丽娜,陈志,杨敏丽,等.我国玉米生产效率时空特征分析[J/OL].农业机械学报,2018,49(1):183-193. http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? flag=1&file_no=20180123&journal_id=jcsam. DOI:10. 6041/j.issn. 1000-1298. 2018. 01. 023.ZHANG Li'na,CHEN Zhi,YANG Minli,et al. Spatio-temporal feature of maize production efficiency in main producing provinces of China[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(1):183-193.(in Chinese)
[8]裴占江,刘杰,史风梅,等.气候变化对我国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].黑龙江农业科学,2017(8):112-118.PEI Zhanjiang,LIU Jie,SHI Fengmei,et al. Research progress on the effect of climate change about the agricultural production of China[J]. Heilongjiang Agricultural Science,2017(8):112-118.(in Chinese)
[9]刘博,杨晓光,王式功.东北地区主要粮食作物生产潜力估算与分析[C]∥S10气象与现代农业发展,2012.
[10]刘丹,李迎春.气候变化背景下江西省双季晚稻气候生产潜力的时空变化特征[J].西南农业学报,2018,31(1):184-191.LIU Dan, LI Yingchun. Characteristics of spatial-temporal of late rice production potential in Jiangxi Province under background of climate change[J]. Journal of Southwest Agriculture,2018,31(1):184-191.(in Chinese)
[11]刘哲,汪雪滢,刘帝佑,等.基于MODIS数据的黄淮海夏玉米高温风险空间分布[J].农业工程学报,2018,34(9):175-181.LIU Zhe,WANG Xueying,LIU Diyou,et al. Spatial distribution of high temperature risk on summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on MODIS data[J]. Transactions of the CSAE,2018,34(9):175-181.(in Chinese)
[12]刘哲,乔红兴,赵祖亮,等.黄淮海夏播玉米花期高温热害空间分布规律研究[J/OL].农业机械学报,2015,46(7):272-279.[http:∥www. j-csam. org/jcsam/ch/reader/view_abstract. aspx? flag=1&file_no=20150739&journal_id=jcsam. DOI:10. 6041/j. issn. 1000-1298. 2015. 07. 039.LIU Zhe,QIAO Hongxing,ZHAO Zuliang,et al. Study on the spatial distribution of high-temperature heat damage in the flowering period of maize under summer planting in Huang-huai-hai Plain[J/OL]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(7):272-279.(in Chinese)
[13]庞艳梅,陈超,马振峰.未来气候变化对四川省水稻生育期气候资源及生产潜力的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2015,43(1):58-68.PANG Yanmei,CHEN Chao,MA Zhenfeng. Impacts of future climate change on climatic resources and production potential during growth period of rice in Sichuan Province[J]. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2015,43(1):58-68.(in Chinese)
[14]孙世坤,蔡焕杰,王健.基于GIS的石羊河流域玉米气候生产潜力分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2010,38(6):211-219.SUN Shikun,CAI Huanjie,WANG Jian. Study on climatic potential productivity of maize based on GIS technology in Shiyang River Basin[J]. Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition),2010,38(6):211-219.(in Chinese)
[15]王磊.气候变化对我国玉米种植区域划分的影响[D].长春:吉林大学,2015.WANG Lei. Impacts of climate change to area division of maize plating in China[D]. Changchun:Jilin University,2015.(in Chinese)
[16]马树庆.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:北京气象出版社,1996.
[17]马树庆,郭顺姬,白亚梅,等.东北区农业气候土壤资源潜力及开发利用研究[J].地理科学,1995(3):243-252,297.MA Shuqing,GUO Shungji,BAI Yamei,et al. The analysis of the potential productivity,exploitation and utilization of climate-soil resources in northeast China[J]. Geographic Sciences,1995(3):243-252,297.(in Chinese)
[18]王宗明,张柏,张树清,等.松嫩平原农业气候生产潜力及自然资源利用率研究[J].中国农业气象,2005(1):2-7.WANG Zongming,ZHANG Bo,ZHANG Shuqing,et al. Studies on agricultural climatic potential productivity and natural resources utilization ratio in Songnen Plain of Heilongjiang Province[J]. Agricultural Meteorology in China,2005(1):2-7.(in Chinese)
[19]中国主要农作物需水量等值线图协作组.中国主要农作物需水量等值线图研究[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,1993.
[20]刘战东,肖俊夫,南纪琴,等.播期对夏玉米生育期、形态指标及产量的影响[J].西北农业学报,2010,19(6):91-94.LIU Zhandong,XIAO Junfu,NAN Jiqin,et al. Effect of sowing date on growth period,morphology index and yield of summer maize[J]. Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica,2010,19(6):91-94.(in Chinese)
[21]王冬妮,郭春明,晏晓英,等.吉林省春玉米生产潜力估算及其时空变化特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(3):249-253.WANG Dongni,GUO Chunming,YAN Xiaoying,et al. Estimation of spring maize production potential in Jilin Province and analysis of its spatiotemporal characteristics[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Regions,2011,29(3):249-253.(in Chinese)
[22]赖荣生,余海龙,黄菊莹.宁夏中部干旱带气候变化及其对春玉米气候生产潜力的影响[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(3):108-114.LAI Rongsheng,YU Hailong,HUANG Juying. Climate change in arid zone of central Ningxia and its influence on climate production potential of spring corn[J]. Journal of China Agricultural University,2014,19(3):108-114.(in Chinese)
[23]葛亚宁,刘洛,徐新良,等.近50 a气候变化背景下我国玉米生产潜力时空演变特征[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):784-795.GE Yaning,LIU Luo,XU Xinliang,et al. The spatial and temporal evolution of maize production potential in China under the background of climate change in the last 50 years[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2015,30(5):784-795.(in Chinese)
[24]侯亚兵.河南省玉米生产潜力及增产途径研究[D].郑州:河南农业大学,2007.HOU Yabing. The studies on the potential productivity and technology approach for increasing yield of maize in Henan Province[D]. Zhengzhou:Henan Agricultural University,2007.(in Chinese)
[25]申锦程.信阳市平桥区水稻种植气候区划[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(31):184-187.SHEN Jincheng. Climatic regionalization of rice planting:Pingqiao,Xinyang[J]. Chinese Agriculture Bulletin,2016,32(31):184-187.(in Chinese)
[26]杜国明,张露洋,徐新良,等.近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):864-874.DU Guoming,ZHANG Luyang,XU Xinliang,et al. Spatial-temporal characteristics of maize production potential change under the background of climate change in Northeast China over the past 50 years[J]. Geographical Studies,2016,35(5):864-874.(in Chinese)