1951-2014年河南省不同季节日照时数时空变化特征及突变分析
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摘要
利用河南省1951-2014年间分布相对均匀的20个气象站的逐月日照时数资料,运用线性趋势分析、IDW插值法、气候倾向率及Mann-Kendall检测法,对河南省春、夏、秋、冬四季和年日照时数的空间分布、变化趋势和突变特征等进行了分析.研究结果表明:(1)受四季日照时数的综合影响,河南省各地年日照时数为1 727~2 260h,空间分布呈现"北部多,南部少,平原多,山地少"的特点.(2)1951-2014年,河南省四季和年日照时数均呈现减少的趋势,尤其是进入21世纪后,这种趋势更加明显.其中,春季日照时数以-5.054h·(10a)~(-1)的倾向率呈较显著的减少趋势;夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数分别以-39.14h·(10a)~(-1)、-22.73h·(10a)~(-1)、-22.16h·(10a)~(-1)和-91.44h·(10a)~(-1)的倾向率呈极显著的减少趋势.(3)河南省春、夏、秋、冬四季和年日照时数均存在突变性减少.春季日照时数于1975年发生突变;夏季日照时数于1987年发生突变;秋季发生突变的时间是1999年;冬季是1997年;年日照时数的突变时间为1986年.春季日照时数通过了90%的信度检验,UF(k)曲线突破了-1.96的临界值,而夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数均通过了99%的信度检验,UF(k)曲线突破了-2.58的临界值.
Using monthly sunshine data recorded from 1951 to 2014 at relatively evenly distributed 20 weather monitoring stations in Henan Province,analyses were carried out to study the spatial distribution and temporal trends.By using inverse distance weighting interpolation,weather trends,and Mann-Kendall statistics,the seasonal changes and spatial distribution of sunshine hours in Henan Province were analyzed.The present results show that:(1)The annual sunshine hours in Henan province ranged between 1,727 to 2,260 h.Spatial disparity existed between longer hours in the north and shorter sunshine hours in the south of the province.In addition,plains enjoyed longer sunshine hours and mountainous regions had shorter such hours.(2)Over the studied period,Henan Province experienced a decreasing trend of sunshine hours annually,especially after entering in twenty-first Century.Among them,the tendency rate of the spring sunshine hours was decreased significantly by-5.054 h·(10a)~(-1).The trend rate of the summer、autumn、winter and year of sunshine were-39.14 h·(10a)~(-1),-22.73 h·(10a)~(-1),-22.16 h·(10a)~(-1) and-91.44 h·(10a)~(-1),the tendency rates showed a significant decreasing trend.(3)In spring,summer,autumn and winter seasons and annual sunshine hours there is a sudden decrease in HenanProvince.The spring sunshine hours mutated in 1975;summer sunshine hours mutated in 1987;the fall occurred in1999;the winter in 1997;and the sunshine duration was abruptly changed in 1986.The sunshine hours in spring passed 90% confidence test.The UF(k)curve broke through the critical value of-1.96,while the summer,autumn,winter and annual sunshine hours all passed the 99% reliability test.The UF(k)curve broke through the critical value of-2.58.
Using monthly sunshine data recorded from 1951 to 2014 at relatively evenly distributed 20 weather monitoring stations in Henan Province,analyses were carried out to study the spatial distribution and temporal trends.By using inverse distance weighting interpolation,weather trends,and Mann-Kendall statistics,the seasonal changes and spatial distribution of sunshine hours in Henan Province were analyzed.The present results show that:(1)The annual sunshine hours in Henan province ranged between 1,727 to 2,260 h.Spatial disparity existed between longer hours in the north and shorter sunshine hours in the south of the province.In addition,plains enjoyed longer sunshine hours and mountainous regions had shorter such hours.(2)Over the studied period,Henan Province experienced a decreasing trend of sunshine hours annually,especially after entering in twenty-first Century.Among them,the tendency rate of the spring sunshine hours was decreased significantly by-5.054 h·(10a)~(-1).The trend rate of the summer、autumn、winter and year of sunshine were-39.14 h·(10a)~(-1),-22.73 h·(10a)~(-1),-22.16 h·(10a)~(-1) and-91.44 h·(10a)~(-1),the tendency rates showed a significant decreasing trend.(3)In spring,summer,autumn and winter seasons and annual sunshine hours there is a sudden decrease in HenanProvince.The spring sunshine hours mutated in 1975;summer sunshine hours mutated in 1987;the fall occurred in1999;the winter in 1997;and the sunshine duration was abruptly changed in 1986.The sunshine hours in spring passed 90% confidence test.The UF(k)curve broke through the critical value of-1.96,while the summer,autumn,winter and annual sunshine hours all passed the 99% reliability test.The UF(k)curve broke through the critical value of-2.58.
引文
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[20]孙娴,王娟敏,姜创业,等.陕西省山地日照时间的空间分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(4):625-635.SUN X,WANG J M,JIANG C Y,et al.The spatial distribution of sunshine duration of mountain terra in Shanxi[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(4):625-635.
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[22]崔海羚,胡正华,师丽魁,等.河南省近50年气候变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(31):15350-15354.CUI H L,HU Z H,SHI L K,et al.Temporal variation characteristics of climate change in Henan province in recent 50years[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2012,40(31):15350-15354.
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[24]王纪军,潘攀,胡彩虹,等.河南省旬日照时数的标度不变性分析[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(2):521-526.WANG J J,PAN P,HU C H,et al.Scale invariance analysis of the ten-day sunshine duration in Henan province,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(2):521-526.
[25]许传阳,郝成元.河南省日照百分率(1961—2008年)时空变化特征[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(5):643-648.XU C Y,HAO C Y.Spatial-temporal variation of sunshine percentages in Henan province from 1961to 2008[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science),2013,32(5):643-648.
[26]贾金明,吴建河,徐巧真,等.河南日照变化特征及成因分析[J].气象科技,2007,35(5):655-660.JIA J M,WU J H,XU Q Z,et al.Features of sunshine duration variation and its cause analysis[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2007,35(5):655-660.
[27]姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙.河南省参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其气候影响分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):14-22.JI X J,ZHU Y Y,GU W L.Analysis on trends in annual reference crop evapotranspiration and its impact climatic factors in Henan province during 1971to 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(1):14-22.
[28]陆忠艳,袁子鹏,蔡福,等.基于GIS的气温和降水推算方法研究[J].气象科技,2008,36(4):389-395.LU Z Y,YUAN Z P,CAI F,et al.Method for calculing temperature and precipitation based on GIS data[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2008,36(4):389-395.
[29]鲁凤,钱鹏,胡秀芳,等.基于小波分析与Mann-Kendall法的上海市近12年空气质量变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(12):1615-1620.LU F,QIAN P,HU X F,et al.Air quality changes of Shanghai in recent 12years based on wavelet analysis and mannkendall method[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(12):1615-1620.
[2]IPCC.Climate Change 2007:The physical science basis.Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2007:18-27.
[3]STANHILL G,COHEN S.Global dimming:A review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2001,107(4):255-278.
[4]霍华丽,刘普幸,张克新.宁夏日照时数的时空变化特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(2):521-524.HUO H L,LIU P X,ZHANG K X.Spatio-temporal change of sunshine hour in Ningxia during the past 50years[J].Journal of Desert Research,2011,31(2):521-524.
[5]吴昊旻,姜燕敏,卢钊,等.1953-2014年丽水市日照时数周期演变规律[J].气象科技,2016,44(6):1004-1008.WU H W,JIANG Y M,LU Z,et al.Periodic variation of sunshine duration from 1953to 2014in Lishui[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2016,44(6):1004-1008.
[6]WILD M,GILGEN H,ROESCH A,et al.From dimming to brightening:decadal changes in solar radiation at earth's surface[J].Science,2005,308(5723):847-850.
[7]ANGELL J K.Variation in United States cloudiness and sunshine duration between 1950and the drought year of 1988[J].Journal of Climate,1990,3(2):296-309.
[8]PINKER R T,ZHANG B,DUTTON E G.Do satellites detect trends in surface solar radiation?[J].Science,2005,308(5723):850-854.
[9]李慧群,付遵涛,闻新宇,等.中国地区日照时数近50年来的变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2013,18(2):203-209.LI H Q,FU Z T,WEN X Y,et al.Characteristic analysis of sunshine duration change in China during the last 50years[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2013,18(2):203-209.
[10]董旭光,邱粲,刘焕彬,等.山东省日照时数的气候变化特征及其影响因素[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):138-145.DONG X G,QIU C,LIU H B,et al.Sunshine duration variation and its influence factors in Shandong province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(2):138-145.
[11]刘玉英,韦小丽,李宇凡.1961-2012年吉林省日照时数的变化特征及影响因素[J].自然资源学报,2015,38(7):1367-1377.LIU Y Y,WEI X L,LI Y F.Variation of sunshine duration and related driving forces in Jilin province during 1961-2012[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015,38(7):1367-1377.
[12]杜军,边多,胡军,等.西藏近35年日照时数的变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2007,62(5):492-500.DU J,BIAN D,HU J,et al.Climatic change of sunshine duration and its influencing factors over Tibet during the last 35years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(5):492-500.
[13]辛宏,张明军,李瑞雪,等.近50年中国天山日照时数变化及其影响因素[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(3):485-491.XIN H,ZHANG M J,LI R X,et al.Analysis on the change of sunshine duration and its affecting factors in the Tianshan mountains in recent 50years[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(3):485-491.
[14]陈少勇,张康林,邢晓宾,等.中国西北地区近47a日照时数的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(7):1142-1152.CHEN S Y,ZHANG K L,XING X B,et al.Climatic change of sunshine duration in northwest China during the last 47years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(7):1142-1152.
[15]康淑媛,张勃,郭玉刚,等.1959年至2008年石羊河流域日照时数时空变化特征[J].资源科学,2011,33(3):483-488.KANG S Y,ZHANG B,GUO Y G,et al.Changes of sunshine duration over the Shiyang river basin during the last 50years[J].Resources Science,2011,33(3):483-488.
[16]杨霞,蔡梅,赵逸舟,等.近39年喀什日照时数变化分析[J].干旱区研究,2011,28(1):158-162.YANG X,CAI M,ZHAO Y Z,et al.Analysis on the change of sunshine duration in Kashgar,Xinjiang in recent 39years[J].Arid Zone Research,2011,28(1):158-162.
[17]华维,董一平,范广洲.青藏高原年日照时数变化的时空特征[J].山地学报,2010,28(1):21-30.HUA W,DONG Y P,FAN G Z.The analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of annual sunshine duration over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Journal of Mountain Science,2010,28(1):21-30.
[18]刘艳艳,张勃,张耀宗,等.1960年至2005年河西干旱区的日照时数变化时空特征分析——以黑河中上游地区为例[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1581-1586.LIU Y Y,ZHANG B,ZHANG Y Z,et al.Analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of sunshine duration change in Hexi arid region:a case study of Heihe river valley in the middle region of Hexi corridor[J].Resources Science,2009,31(9):1581-1586.
[19]张锐,刘普幸,张克新,等.祁连山区日照时数的空间差异、突变与多尺度分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(12):2413-2418.ZHANG R,LIU P X,ZHANG K X,et al.Analysis of spatial differences,mutation and multi-scale atributes of sunshine duration in the Qilian mountains[J].Resources Science,2010,32(12):2413-2418.
[20]孙娴,王娟敏,姜创业,等.陕西省山地日照时间的空间分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(4):625-635.SUN X,WANG J M,JIANG C Y,et al.The spatial distribution of sunshine duration of mountain terra in Shanxi[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2010,25(4):625-635.
[21]何彬方,冯妍,荀尚培,等.安徽省50年日照时数的变化特征及影响因素[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(7):1275-1283.HE B F,FENG Y,XUN S P,et al.Climatic change of sunshine duration and its influencing factors over Anhui province during the last 50years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(7):1275-1283.
[22]崔海羚,胡正华,师丽魁,等.河南省近50年气候变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(31):15350-15354.CUI H L,HU Z H,SHI L K,et al.Temporal variation characteristics of climate change in Henan province in recent 50years[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2012,40(31):15350-15354.
[23]焦建丽,康雯瑛,王军,等.河南省日照时数时空变化分析[J].气象与环境科学,2008,31(z1):4-6.JIAO J L,KANG W Y,WANG J,et al.Temporal and spatial change analysis of sunshine hour in Henan[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2008,31(z1):4-6.
[24]王纪军,潘攀,胡彩虹,等.河南省旬日照时数的标度不变性分析[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(2):521-526.WANG J J,PAN P,HU C H,et al.Scale invariance analysis of the ten-day sunshine duration in Henan province,China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2015,26(2):521-526.
[25]许传阳,郝成元.河南省日照百分率(1961—2008年)时空变化特征[J].河南理工大学学报(自然科学版),2013,32(5):643-648.XU C Y,HAO C Y.Spatial-temporal variation of sunshine percentages in Henan province from 1961to 2008[J].Journal of Henan Polytechnic University(Natural Science),2013,32(5):643-648.
[26]贾金明,吴建河,徐巧真,等.河南日照变化特征及成因分析[J].气象科技,2007,35(5):655-660.JIA J M,WU J H,XU Q Z,et al.Features of sunshine duration variation and its cause analysis[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2007,35(5):655-660.
[27]姬兴杰,朱业玉,顾万龙.河南省参考作物蒸散量变化特征及其气候影响分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):14-22.JI X J,ZHU Y Y,GU W L.Analysis on trends in annual reference crop evapotranspiration and its impact climatic factors in Henan province during 1971to 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(1):14-22.
[28]陆忠艳,袁子鹏,蔡福,等.基于GIS的气温和降水推算方法研究[J].气象科技,2008,36(4):389-395.LU Z Y,YUAN Z P,CAI F,et al.Method for calculing temperature and precipitation based on GIS data[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2008,36(4):389-395.
[29]鲁凤,钱鹏,胡秀芳,等.基于小波分析与Mann-Kendall法的上海市近12年空气质量变化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(12):1615-1620.LU F,QIAN P,HU X F,et al.Air quality changes of Shanghai in recent 12years based on wavelet analysis and mannkendall method[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2013,22(12):1615-1620.