基于贝叶斯网络的页岩气井套管变形失效定量风险分析
|
摘要
受环境载荷和自身缺陷的影响,页岩气井套管在服役过程中可能发生变形失效,对页岩气井的正常生产造成严重影响。为控制页岩气井套管变形失效风险,采用事故树和事件序列图方法识别页岩气井套管变形失效原因和后果,建立页岩气井套管变形失效场景模型,将事故树和事件序列模型转化为贝叶斯网络,采用条件概率表考虑事件之间的推理关系,建立页岩气井套管变形失效的贝叶斯网络模型。进行失效诊断分析和概率学习,识别页岩气井套管变形失效最可能的致因因素,引入先兆事故,评估各失效场景的动态发生概率。以川东地区A页岩气井为例开展模型应用研究,获取导致套管变形失效最可能的致因组合,得到套管变形失效及其失效后果的动态发生概率,与工程现场气井套管的安全状况比较吻合,分析结果可为页岩气井套管变形失效风险防控和决策提供理论支撑。
Due to the effect of the environmental loads and the defects of its own, the casing in shale gas wells may suffer deformation failure in the process of service, which will bring serious impact on the normal production of shale gas wells. In order to control the risk induced by the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells, its causes and consequences were identified by means of event tree and event sequence diagram. Then, the scenario model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established,and event tree and event sequence models were transformed into the Bayes network. The inference relations between events were presented by using conditional probability table, and the Bayes network model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established. Failure diagnosis and analysis and probability learning were carried out, and the most possible cause for the deformation failure of the casing was identified. Threatened accident was introduced and the dynamic occurrence probability of each failure scenario was assessed. Finally, model application study was carried out with shale gas well A in the eastern Sichuan Basin as the example. And the most possible cause combination for the deformation failure of the casing was figured out, and the dynamic occurrence probability of casing deformation failure and its consequence was calculated. It is indicated that they are in better accordance with the safety situation of the casing in gas wells in the field of engineering. The research results can provide the theoretical support for the risk control and decision making on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells.
Due to the effect of the environmental loads and the defects of its own, the casing in shale gas wells may suffer deformation failure in the process of service, which will bring serious impact on the normal production of shale gas wells. In order to control the risk induced by the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells, its causes and consequences were identified by means of event tree and event sequence diagram. Then, the scenario model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established,and event tree and event sequence models were transformed into the Bayes network. The inference relations between events were presented by using conditional probability table, and the Bayes network model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established. Failure diagnosis and analysis and probability learning were carried out, and the most possible cause for the deformation failure of the casing was identified. Threatened accident was introduced and the dynamic occurrence probability of each failure scenario was assessed. Finally, model application study was carried out with shale gas well A in the eastern Sichuan Basin as the example. And the most possible cause combination for the deformation failure of the casing was figured out, and the dynamic occurrence probability of casing deformation failure and its consequence was calculated. It is indicated that they are in better accordance with the safety situation of the casing in gas wells in the field of engineering. The research results can provide the theoretical support for the risk control and decision making on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells.
引文
[1]陈朝伟,石林,项德贵.长宁-威远页岩气示范区套管变形机理及对策[J].天然气工业,2016,36(11):70-75.CHEN Chaowei,SHI Lin,XIANG Degui.Mechanism of casing deformation in the Changning-Weiyuan national shale gas project demonstration area and countermeasures[J].Natural Gas Industry,2016,36(11):70-75.
[2]姜小亮,李黔,尹文锋.膏盐层蠕变致套管变形损坏机理及对策--以四川盆地北部X区块为例[J].天然气工业,2015,35(8):75-79.JIANG Xiaoliang,LI Qian,YIN Wenfeng.Mechanism of casing deformation caused by gypsum-salt layers creep and relevant countermeasures:A case study of Block X in the northern Sichuan Basin[J].Natural Gas Industry,2015,35(8):75-79.
[3]董星亮,刘书杰,谢仁军,张兴全.套管封固段变形对高温高压井环空圈闭压力影响规律[J].石油钻采工艺,2016,38(6):782-786.DONG Xingliang,LIU Shujie,XIE Renjun,ZHANGXingquan.Casing deformation of cemented portions effect on the annular pressure buildup for hthp gas wells[J].Oil Drilling&Production Technology,2016,38(6):782-786.
[4]闫怡飞,董卫,于本福,闫相祯.大尺寸储气库套管抗挤强度影响因素试验研究[J].中国测试,2015,41(11):12-15.YAN Yifei,DONG Wei,YU Benfu,YAN Xiangzhen.Affect factor experimental analysis of large-size casing collapsing strength for underground gas storage[J].China Measurement&Test,2015,41(11):12-15.
[5]练章华,罗泽利,步宏光,李才雄,李长平.水泥环环状缺失套损机理及防控措施[J].石油钻采工艺,2017,39(4):435-441.LIAN Zhanghua,LUO Zeli,BU Hongguang,LI Caixiong,LI Changping.Mechanical and control measures on casing damage due to annular absence of cement sheath[J].Petroleum Drilling&Production Technology,2017,39(4):435-441.
[6]李新宏,朱红卫,陈国明,吕寒,孟祥坤.海底油气管道泄漏事故风险分析的贝叶斯动态模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(4):75-80.LI Xinhong,ZHU Hongwei,CHEN Guoming,LYU Han,MENG Xiangkun.Bayesian dynamic model for analyzing risk of meeting submarine oil&gas pipeline leakage accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(4):75-80.
[7]陈洁,陈国明,李新宏,杨冬冬,耿凯月,刘长鑫.基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(1):124-129.CHEN Jie,CHEN Guoming,LI Xinhong,YANGDongdong,GENG Kaiyue,LIU Changxin.Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(1):124-129.
[8]陈洁,陈国明,李新宏,师吉浩.深水关井作业可靠性贝叶斯-GO法分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(4):144-149.CHEN Jie,CHEN Guoming,LI Xinhong,SHI Jihao.Reliability analysis of deep-water shut-in operation using Bayesian-GO approach[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(4):144-149.
[9]谭清磊,陈国明,付建民.基于因果图和贝叶斯网络的高含硫井口分离器风险分析[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(5):234-238.TAN Qinglei,CHEN Guoming,FU Jianmin.Risk analysis of High-sulfur wellhead separators based on causality diagram and Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2012,12(5):234-238.
[10]YANG Y,KHAN F,THODI P,ABBASSI R.Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,159:214-222.
[2]姜小亮,李黔,尹文锋.膏盐层蠕变致套管变形损坏机理及对策--以四川盆地北部X区块为例[J].天然气工业,2015,35(8):75-79.JIANG Xiaoliang,LI Qian,YIN Wenfeng.Mechanism of casing deformation caused by gypsum-salt layers creep and relevant countermeasures:A case study of Block X in the northern Sichuan Basin[J].Natural Gas Industry,2015,35(8):75-79.
[3]董星亮,刘书杰,谢仁军,张兴全.套管封固段变形对高温高压井环空圈闭压力影响规律[J].石油钻采工艺,2016,38(6):782-786.DONG Xingliang,LIU Shujie,XIE Renjun,ZHANGXingquan.Casing deformation of cemented portions effect on the annular pressure buildup for hthp gas wells[J].Oil Drilling&Production Technology,2016,38(6):782-786.
[4]闫怡飞,董卫,于本福,闫相祯.大尺寸储气库套管抗挤强度影响因素试验研究[J].中国测试,2015,41(11):12-15.YAN Yifei,DONG Wei,YU Benfu,YAN Xiangzhen.Affect factor experimental analysis of large-size casing collapsing strength for underground gas storage[J].China Measurement&Test,2015,41(11):12-15.
[5]练章华,罗泽利,步宏光,李才雄,李长平.水泥环环状缺失套损机理及防控措施[J].石油钻采工艺,2017,39(4):435-441.LIAN Zhanghua,LUO Zeli,BU Hongguang,LI Caixiong,LI Changping.Mechanical and control measures on casing damage due to annular absence of cement sheath[J].Petroleum Drilling&Production Technology,2017,39(4):435-441.
[6]李新宏,朱红卫,陈国明,吕寒,孟祥坤.海底油气管道泄漏事故风险分析的贝叶斯动态模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(4):75-80.LI Xinhong,ZHU Hongwei,CHEN Guoming,LYU Han,MENG Xiangkun.Bayesian dynamic model for analyzing risk of meeting submarine oil&gas pipeline leakage accident[J].China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(4):75-80.
[7]陈洁,陈国明,李新宏,杨冬冬,耿凯月,刘长鑫.基于DBN的深水井控人机界面系统可靠性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2018,28(1):124-129.CHEN Jie,CHEN Guoming,LI Xinhong,YANGDongdong,GENG Kaiyue,LIU Changxin.Reliability analysis of deep-water drilling man-machine interface system based on DBN[J].China Safety Science Journal,2018,28(1):124-129.
[8]陈洁,陈国明,李新宏,师吉浩.深水关井作业可靠性贝叶斯-GO法分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(4):144-149.CHEN Jie,CHEN Guoming,LI Xinhong,SHI Jihao.Reliability analysis of deep-water shut-in operation using Bayesian-GO approach[J].China Safety Science Journal,2016,26(4):144-149.
[9]谭清磊,陈国明,付建民.基于因果图和贝叶斯网络的高含硫井口分离器风险分析[J].安全与环境学报,2012,12(5):234-238.TAN Qinglei,CHEN Guoming,FU Jianmin.Risk analysis of High-sulfur wellhead separators based on causality diagram and Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety and Environment,2012,12(5):234-238.
[10]YANG Y,KHAN F,THODI P,ABBASSI R.Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2017,159:214-222.