供应链失效模式风险评价排序与关联性分析
|
摘要
针对传统的失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)在风险评估中存在的若干缺陷,提出了基于云模型和区间二元混合加权距离测度(ITHWD)的改进FMEA供应链失效模式风险评价排序方法,这种改进FMEA方法有效解决了不同专家对决策信息的主观偏好、风险因子的相对权重问题.针对排序结果,利用复杂网络理论,构建了失效模式复杂传播网络结构关系图,对失效模式间的关联性进行了研究,系统分析了失效模式间关联关系对风险造成的不同影响.最后,通过案例供应链,验证了改进FMEA与复杂网络理论在供应链失效模式风险评价排序和失效模式间关联分析方面的可行性和有效性.
Aiming at some shortcomings of traditional failure mode and impact analysis(FMEA) in risk assessment, a risk assessment ranking method of improved FMEA supply chain failure mode based on cloud model and interval binary mixed weighted distance measure(ITHWD) is proposed. The improved FMEA method effectively solves the subjective preference of different experts on decision-making information and the relative weight of risk factors. According to the results of the sorting,a complex network theory is used to construct a complex propagation network structure diagram of failure modes. The relationship between failure modes is creatively studied. The different effects of the failure modes on risk axe systematically analyzed. Finally, based on the case study, the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved FMEA and complex network theory used in the risk assessment ranking and failure mode correlation analysis is proved.
Aiming at some shortcomings of traditional failure mode and impact analysis(FMEA) in risk assessment, a risk assessment ranking method of improved FMEA supply chain failure mode based on cloud model and interval binary mixed weighted distance measure(ITHWD) is proposed. The improved FMEA method effectively solves the subjective preference of different experts on decision-making information and the relative weight of risk factors. According to the results of the sorting,a complex network theory is used to construct a complex propagation network structure diagram of failure modes. The relationship between failure modes is creatively studied. The different effects of the failure modes on risk axe systematically analyzed. Finally, based on the case study, the feasibility and effectiveness of the improved FMEA and complex network theory used in the risk assessment ranking and failure mode correlation analysis is proved.
引文
[1]李守泽,余建军,孙树栋.供应链失效风险识别与评估[J].计算机应用研究,2010, 27(12):4568-4570.
[2]胡伟,程幼明.DEMATEL的改进及其在供应链失效分析中的应用[J].统计与决策,2013(6):83-86.
[3]王冬冬,达庆利.基于模糊Petri网的供应链诊断建模分析[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版2006,36(4):662-666.
[4]张浩,王明坤.020模式下供应链失效风险识别模型及仿真[J].系统仿真学报,2016, 28(11):2747-2755.
[5]Liu H C, Liu L, Liu N. Risk evaluation approaches in failure mode and effects analysis:a literature review[J]. Expert Systems with Applications an International Journal, 2013, 40(2):828-838.
[6]Erhan B, Umut A, Ay berks, et al. Risk prioritization in failure mode and effects analysis using interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2015, 42(8):4000-4015.
[7]Geum Y J, Cho Y, Park Y. A systematic approach for diagnosing service failure:service-specific FMEA and grey relational analysis approach[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 2011,54(12):3126-3142.
[8]Liu H C, You J X, Li P, et al. Failure mode and effect analysis under uncertainty:an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2016, 65(3):1380.
[9]耿秀丽,张永政.基于犹豫模糊集的改进FMEA风险评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017, 23(2):340-348.
[10]Liu H C, You J X, You X Y, et al. A novelo approach for Failure mode and effects analysis using combination weighting and fuzzy VIKOR method[J]. APPlied Soft Computing, 2015, 28:579-588.
[11]WANG Chunyong, HU Baoqing. Granular variable precision fuzzy rough sets with general fuzzy relations[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2015, 275(15):39-57.
[12]尤建新,徐涛,毛仁杰.基于失效模式与后果分析的农场到家庭模式风险分析[J].同济大学学报,2017,45(4):604-608.
[13]李德毅,孟海军,史雪梅.隶属云与隶属云发生器[J].计算机研究与发展,1995, 32(6):15-20.
[14]LIAO L, Guo W W. Incorporating utility and cloud theories for owner evaluation in tendering[J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(1):5894-5899.
[15]罗洪云,张庆普,林向义.企业自主创新过程中知识管理绩效的表现形式、测度及评价研究[J].科学与科学技术管理,2014, 35(2):71.
[16]舒彤,葛佳丽,陈收.基于支持向量机的供应链风险评估研究[J].经济经纬,2014, 31(1):130-135.
[17]闫妍,刘晓,庄新田.基于节点失效的弹性供应链应急管理策略[J].控制与决策,2010, 25(1):25-30.
[18]李莉.供应链中供应地相关性研究[D].天津:天津大学,2011.
[19]杨康,张仲义.基于复杂网络理论的供应链网络风险传播机理研究[J].系统科学与数学,2013, 33(10):1224-1332.
[20]张轶,钱晓东.基于复杂网络的供应链建模与仿真研究[J].科技管理研究,2014(22):183-186.
[21]张广胜,刘伟.基于复杂网络理论的物流服务供应链网络脆弱性机理研究[J].商业经济与管理,2016,302(12):19-27.
[22]安相华,于靖博,蔡卫国.基于混合多属性决策和关联分析的模糊粗糙FMEA评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016, 22(11):2613-2621.
[2]胡伟,程幼明.DEMATEL的改进及其在供应链失效分析中的应用[J].统计与决策,2013(6):83-86.
[3]王冬冬,达庆利.基于模糊Petri网的供应链诊断建模分析[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版2006,36(4):662-666.
[4]张浩,王明坤.020模式下供应链失效风险识别模型及仿真[J].系统仿真学报,2016, 28(11):2747-2755.
[5]Liu H C, Liu L, Liu N. Risk evaluation approaches in failure mode and effects analysis:a literature review[J]. Expert Systems with Applications an International Journal, 2013, 40(2):828-838.
[6]Erhan B, Umut A, Ay berks, et al. Risk prioritization in failure mode and effects analysis using interval type-2 fuzzy sets[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2015, 42(8):4000-4015.
[7]Geum Y J, Cho Y, Park Y. A systematic approach for diagnosing service failure:service-specific FMEA and grey relational analysis approach[J]. Mathematical and Computer Modeling, 2011,54(12):3126-3142.
[8]Liu H C, You J X, Li P, et al. Failure mode and effect analysis under uncertainty:an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2016, 65(3):1380.
[9]耿秀丽,张永政.基于犹豫模糊集的改进FMEA风险评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017, 23(2):340-348.
[10]Liu H C, You J X, You X Y, et al. A novelo approach for Failure mode and effects analysis using combination weighting and fuzzy VIKOR method[J]. APPlied Soft Computing, 2015, 28:579-588.
[11]WANG Chunyong, HU Baoqing. Granular variable precision fuzzy rough sets with general fuzzy relations[J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2015, 275(15):39-57.
[12]尤建新,徐涛,毛仁杰.基于失效模式与后果分析的农场到家庭模式风险分析[J].同济大学学报,2017,45(4):604-608.
[13]李德毅,孟海军,史雪梅.隶属云与隶属云发生器[J].计算机研究与发展,1995, 32(6):15-20.
[14]LIAO L, Guo W W. Incorporating utility and cloud theories for owner evaluation in tendering[J].Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(1):5894-5899.
[15]罗洪云,张庆普,林向义.企业自主创新过程中知识管理绩效的表现形式、测度及评价研究[J].科学与科学技术管理,2014, 35(2):71.
[16]舒彤,葛佳丽,陈收.基于支持向量机的供应链风险评估研究[J].经济经纬,2014, 31(1):130-135.
[17]闫妍,刘晓,庄新田.基于节点失效的弹性供应链应急管理策略[J].控制与决策,2010, 25(1):25-30.
[18]李莉.供应链中供应地相关性研究[D].天津:天津大学,2011.
[19]杨康,张仲义.基于复杂网络理论的供应链网络风险传播机理研究[J].系统科学与数学,2013, 33(10):1224-1332.
[20]张轶,钱晓东.基于复杂网络的供应链建模与仿真研究[J].科技管理研究,2014(22):183-186.
[21]张广胜,刘伟.基于复杂网络理论的物流服务供应链网络脆弱性机理研究[J].商业经济与管理,2016,302(12):19-27.
[22]安相华,于靖博,蔡卫国.基于混合多属性决策和关联分析的模糊粗糙FMEA评估方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2016, 22(11):2613-2621.