产业共性技术扩散三阶段模型构建与仿真研究
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摘要
结合产业共性技术相关理论与技术扩散模型,以政府作用为调节变量,构建产业共性技术扩散的三阶段仿真模型,对产业共性技术扩散三阶段演化特征进行探讨,借助Matlab平台对主体采纳行为和共性技术扩散速度进行仿真,并以我国新能源汽车产业共性技术扩散为例对仿真结果进行实证检验。研究结果表明:产业共性技术扩散先后经历了权威决策、二次创新以及附随扩散3个阶段;产业共性技术扩散的企业采纳比例遵循"S"型曲线规律,而产业共性技术扩散速度出现了"上升—下降—再上升"的"N"型走势;直接采纳二次研发成果的企业,对产业共性技术扩散影响较大;政府在整个产业共性技术扩散过程中发挥关键作用,但在扩散不同阶段政府介入方式与程度会有所差异;二次创新投入比例与成功率影响产业共性技术扩散规模和速度;只有将产业共性技术转化成专有技术或新产品,才能实现共性技术有效扩散。
Based on the theory of industrial generic technology and technology diffusion model,the three-stage evolution simulation model of industrial generic technology diffusion was constructed by the government's role as the adjustment variable,then the paper analyses the evolution characteristics of the three stages of industrial generic technology diffusion under the condition of the government.The Matlab platform is used to simulate the subject adoption behavior and generic technology diffusion speed,and taking the diffusion of generic technology in China's new energy vehicle industry as an example,the simulation results are tested empirically.The results show that industrial generic technology diffusion has experienced decision authority,the second innovation,and attached diffusion three diffusion stage.The adoption ratio of industrial generic technology diffusion follows the "S" curve law,while the speed of industrial generic technology diffusion shows the " N" trend of "rising-falling-rising".Enterprises that directly adopt the results of secondary innovation have a greater impact on industrial generic technology diffusion.The government plays a key role in the process of technology diffusion,but at different stages of diffusion,the way and degree of government intervention will vary.The scale and speed of the industrial generic technology diffusion are affected by the ratio and success rate of the re-innovation.Only the transformation of industrial generic technology into proprietary technology or new products can achieve the effective diffusion of common technology.
Based on the theory of industrial generic technology and technology diffusion model,the three-stage evolution simulation model of industrial generic technology diffusion was constructed by the government's role as the adjustment variable,then the paper analyses the evolution characteristics of the three stages of industrial generic technology diffusion under the condition of the government.The Matlab platform is used to simulate the subject adoption behavior and generic technology diffusion speed,and taking the diffusion of generic technology in China's new energy vehicle industry as an example,the simulation results are tested empirically.The results show that industrial generic technology diffusion has experienced decision authority,the second innovation,and attached diffusion three diffusion stage.The adoption ratio of industrial generic technology diffusion follows the "S" curve law,while the speed of industrial generic technology diffusion shows the " N" trend of "rising-falling-rising".Enterprises that directly adopt the results of secondary innovation have a greater impact on industrial generic technology diffusion.The government plays a key role in the process of technology diffusion,but at different stages of diffusion,the way and degree of government intervention will vary.The scale and speed of the industrial generic technology diffusion are affected by the ratio and success rate of the re-innovation.Only the transformation of industrial generic technology into proprietary technology or new products can achieve the effective diffusion of common technology.
引文
[1]黄玮强,庄新田,姚爽.基于创新合作网络的产业集群知识扩散研究[J].管理科学,2012,25(2):13-23.
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[3]魏春艳,李兆友.产业共性技术创新研究述评[J].长沙理工大学学报:社会科学版,2018,33(2):16-22.
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[6]夏明.产业共性技术创新战略和制度的设计---基于组织机构的视角[J].信息系统工程,2017(12):92-93.
[7]郑月龙,王琳.多企业共性技术合作研发行为的演化动态[J].系统工程,2018(2):71-79.
[8]周国华,谭晶菁.复杂产品关键共性技术供给模式比较研究[J].软科学,2018,32(6):97-102.
[9]吴贵生,李纪珍.产业共性技术供给体系研究[J].科学技术与工程,2003,3(4):379-380.
[10]GEROSKI P A.Models of technology diffusion[J].Cepr Discussion Papers,1999,29(4):603-625.
[11]曹兴,柴张琦.技术扩散的过程与模型:一个文献综述[J].中南大学学报:社会科学版,2013(4):14-22.
[12]吕新军,胡晓绵,张熹.中美高技术产业间技术扩散模式比较分析---基于投入产出与社会网络方法的分析[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(7):51-56.
[13]翁重,丁玉苗,杨金纯,等.发达国家行业共性技术研发和扩散机制对我国纺织行业的启示[J].纺织导报,2012(7):42-45.
[14]邹樵,吴丁佳宝,姜杰.共性技术扩散的网络与外溢效应[J].管理世界,2011(1):182-183.
[15]张聪群.基于集群的产业共性技术创新载体:官产学研联盟[J].宁波大学学报:人文版,2008,21(3):79-84.
[16]邹樵.共性技术扩散中的政府行为[J].中国行政管理,2008(2):66-68.
[17]周灿,程永波.复杂装备共性技术合作研发中政府补贴作用[J].南京航空航天大学学报:社会科学版,2018,20(1):35-40.
[18]杜国贞,肖广岭.构建传统产业集群共性技术供给体系---一项对比研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2006,27(9):71-76.
[19]刘宇,康健,邵云飞.产业共性技术协同创新的三螺旋演进与动力研究---以成德绵生物医药产业的比较为例[J].中国科技论坛,2017(12):85-92.
[20]樊霞,黄妍,朱桂龙.产学研合作对共性技术创新的影响效用研究[J].科研管理,2018,39(1):34-44.
[21]张鹏,杨艳君,宋丽雪.GPS产业的共性技术识别、演进及其启示---基于专利分析[J].技术经济,2016(12):60-75.
[22]骆正清,戴瑞.共性技术的选择方法研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(1):22-29.
[23]邹樵.共性技术扩散机理与政府行为[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2015.
[24]李慧,聂银菊.共性技术创新发展中的政府作用研究述评[J].科技管理研究,2018(17):88-92.
[25]刘洪民.新时期加强我国产业共性技术研发体制机制创新的思考[J].经济体制改革,2013(2):89-93.
[26]周国林.产业共性技术产学研联盟组织模式的述评[J].经济学动态,2010(4):90-93.
[27]卓丽洪,贺俊.产业集群共性技术供给机制的比较分析[J].经济纵横,2017(7):66-74.
[28]LACIANA C E,ROVERE S L.Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model:adoption patterns vs.seeding strategies[J].Physica A Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2011,390(6):1139-1149.
[29]TURK T,TRKMAN P.Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2012,79(1):85-96.
[30]VERDOLINI E,GALEOTTI M.At home and abroad:an empirical analysis of innovation and diffusion in energy technologies[J].Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,2011,61(2):119-134.
[31]SONG I,CHINTAGUNTA P K.A micromodel of new product adoption with heterogeneous and forward-looking consumers:application to the digital camera category[J].Quantitative Marketing&Economics,2003,1(4):371-407.
[32]周潇,盛永祥,吴洁,等.不同类型政府和企业对产业共性技术研发的投资策略研究[J].研究与发展管理,2017,29(3):98-109.
[33]周源.制造范式升级期共性使能技术扩散的影响因素分析与实证研究[J].中国软科学,2018(1):19-32.
[34]GAMBARDELLA A,MCGAHAN A M.Business-model innovation:general purpose technologies and their implications for industry structure[J].Long Range Planning,2010,43(2):262-271.
[35]李纪珍.我国产业共性技术供给和扩散的发展历程[J].创新与创业管理,2010(2):19-22.
[36]马永红,苏鑫,赵越.产业共性技术扩散的演化博弈分析[J].控制理论与应用,2019,36(1):22-31.
[37]SCHAEFER A,SCHIESS D,WEHRLI R.Long-term growth driven by a sequence of general purpose technologies[J].Economic Modelling,2011,37(574):23-31.
[38]JARANIEN A.Advanced technologies used by lithuanian railways[J].Procedia Engineering,2016,134:263-267.
[39]MAHAJAN V,BUZZELL S R D.Assessing the impact of competitive entry on market expansion and incumbent sales[J].Journal of Marketing,1993,57(3):39-52.
[40]GUAN J A B K.Stochastic factors affecting the diffusion of a technological inndovation-a systematic review[J].Journal of Systems Science&Systems Engineering,1994,3(9):241-256.
[41]RAINER A,STROHMAIER R.Modeling the diffusion of general purpose technologies in an evolutionary multisector framework[J].Empirica,2014,41(3):425-444.
[2]郭斌,郭琳,汪玥琦.重复购买行为与新产品创新扩散---基于产品复杂性的视角[J].浙江大学学报:人文社会科学版,2014,44(3):88-99.
[3]魏春艳,李兆友.产业共性技术创新研究述评[J].长沙理工大学学报:社会科学版,2018,33(2):16-22.
[4]ROSENBERG N,TRAJTENBERG M.A general-purpose technology at work:the corliss steam engine in the latenineteenth-century united states[J].The Journal of Economic History,2004,64(1):61-99.
[5]SCHIESS D,WEHRLI R.Long-term growth driven by a sequence of general purpose technologies[J].SSRN Electronic Journal,2011,37(574):23-31.
[6]夏明.产业共性技术创新战略和制度的设计---基于组织机构的视角[J].信息系统工程,2017(12):92-93.
[7]郑月龙,王琳.多企业共性技术合作研发行为的演化动态[J].系统工程,2018(2):71-79.
[8]周国华,谭晶菁.复杂产品关键共性技术供给模式比较研究[J].软科学,2018,32(6):97-102.
[9]吴贵生,李纪珍.产业共性技术供给体系研究[J].科学技术与工程,2003,3(4):379-380.
[10]GEROSKI P A.Models of technology diffusion[J].Cepr Discussion Papers,1999,29(4):603-625.
[11]曹兴,柴张琦.技术扩散的过程与模型:一个文献综述[J].中南大学学报:社会科学版,2013(4):14-22.
[12]吕新军,胡晓绵,张熹.中美高技术产业间技术扩散模式比较分析---基于投入产出与社会网络方法的分析[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(7):51-56.
[13]翁重,丁玉苗,杨金纯,等.发达国家行业共性技术研发和扩散机制对我国纺织行业的启示[J].纺织导报,2012(7):42-45.
[14]邹樵,吴丁佳宝,姜杰.共性技术扩散的网络与外溢效应[J].管理世界,2011(1):182-183.
[15]张聪群.基于集群的产业共性技术创新载体:官产学研联盟[J].宁波大学学报:人文版,2008,21(3):79-84.
[16]邹樵.共性技术扩散中的政府行为[J].中国行政管理,2008(2):66-68.
[17]周灿,程永波.复杂装备共性技术合作研发中政府补贴作用[J].南京航空航天大学学报:社会科学版,2018,20(1):35-40.
[18]杜国贞,肖广岭.构建传统产业集群共性技术供给体系---一项对比研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2006,27(9):71-76.
[19]刘宇,康健,邵云飞.产业共性技术协同创新的三螺旋演进与动力研究---以成德绵生物医药产业的比较为例[J].中国科技论坛,2017(12):85-92.
[20]樊霞,黄妍,朱桂龙.产学研合作对共性技术创新的影响效用研究[J].科研管理,2018,39(1):34-44.
[21]张鹏,杨艳君,宋丽雪.GPS产业的共性技术识别、演进及其启示---基于专利分析[J].技术经济,2016(12):60-75.
[22]骆正清,戴瑞.共性技术的选择方法研究[J].科学学研究,2013,31(1):22-29.
[23]邹樵.共性技术扩散机理与政府行为[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2015.
[24]李慧,聂银菊.共性技术创新发展中的政府作用研究述评[J].科技管理研究,2018(17):88-92.
[25]刘洪民.新时期加强我国产业共性技术研发体制机制创新的思考[J].经济体制改革,2013(2):89-93.
[26]周国林.产业共性技术产学研联盟组织模式的述评[J].经济学动态,2010(4):90-93.
[27]卓丽洪,贺俊.产业集群共性技术供给机制的比较分析[J].经济纵横,2017(7):66-74.
[28]LACIANA C E,ROVERE S L.Ising-like agent-based technology diffusion model:adoption patterns vs.seeding strategies[J].Physica A Statistical Mechanics&Its Applications,2011,390(6):1139-1149.
[29]TURK T,TRKMAN P.Bass model estimates for broadband diffusion in European countries[J].Technological Forecasting&Social Change,2012,79(1):85-96.
[30]VERDOLINI E,GALEOTTI M.At home and abroad:an empirical analysis of innovation and diffusion in energy technologies[J].Journal of Environmental Economics&Management,2011,61(2):119-134.
[31]SONG I,CHINTAGUNTA P K.A micromodel of new product adoption with heterogeneous and forward-looking consumers:application to the digital camera category[J].Quantitative Marketing&Economics,2003,1(4):371-407.
[32]周潇,盛永祥,吴洁,等.不同类型政府和企业对产业共性技术研发的投资策略研究[J].研究与发展管理,2017,29(3):98-109.
[33]周源.制造范式升级期共性使能技术扩散的影响因素分析与实证研究[J].中国软科学,2018(1):19-32.
[34]GAMBARDELLA A,MCGAHAN A M.Business-model innovation:general purpose technologies and their implications for industry structure[J].Long Range Planning,2010,43(2):262-271.
[35]李纪珍.我国产业共性技术供给和扩散的发展历程[J].创新与创业管理,2010(2):19-22.
[36]马永红,苏鑫,赵越.产业共性技术扩散的演化博弈分析[J].控制理论与应用,2019,36(1):22-31.
[37]SCHAEFER A,SCHIESS D,WEHRLI R.Long-term growth driven by a sequence of general purpose technologies[J].Economic Modelling,2011,37(574):23-31.
[38]JARANIEN A.Advanced technologies used by lithuanian railways[J].Procedia Engineering,2016,134:263-267.
[39]MAHAJAN V,BUZZELL S R D.Assessing the impact of competitive entry on market expansion and incumbent sales[J].Journal of Marketing,1993,57(3):39-52.
[40]GUAN J A B K.Stochastic factors affecting the diffusion of a technological inndovation-a systematic review[J].Journal of Systems Science&Systems Engineering,1994,3(9):241-256.
[41]RAINER A,STROHMAIER R.Modeling the diffusion of general purpose technologies in an evolutionary multisector framework[J].Empirica,2014,41(3):425-444.