摘要
民用航空发动机运行数据是航空公司制定发动机维护方案的重要参考依据。针对某航空公司CFM56-7B发动机的振动值变化趋势提出了一种基于回归分析和ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average)模型的故障分析方法。采用回归分析法对各航段发动机振动值和转速之间的关系进行回归拟合,针对指数拟合方程的指数项系数建立ARIMA分析模型,得到方程拟合系数预测值与真实值之间的对应关系并分析结果,从而预判发动机是否有振动故障征兆。结果表明,ARIMA模型能够较好地描述发动机振动-转速拟合系数变化趋势,能够有效地预测发动机振动故障,可为航空公司制定发动机维护方案提供重要依据。
The operation data of Civil Aero-engine is an important reference for airlines to make engine maintenance plans. A fault analysis method based on regressive analysis and ARIMA( autoregressive integrated moving average) model was proposed for the development trend of vibration value of an airline CFM56-7 B engine. The regression analysis method was used to fit the vibration value and rotational speed of the engine in each flight. The ARIMA analysis model was established for the exponential coefficient of the exponential fitting equation,then the corresponding relationship between the predicted value and the real value of the equation fitting coefficient was obtained and analyzed,and then whether the engine has vibration fault symptoms was predicted. The results show that ARIMA model can describe the trend of engine vibration-speed fitting coefficient well and predict engine vibration fault effectively,and the model provides an important basis for airlines to make engine maintenance plans.
引文
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