基于logistic模型的我国信息产业演化发展研究
|
摘要
信息产业作为战略性新兴产业,对国民经济的发展发挥着巨大的推动作用.对于信息产业演化发展路径的深入探索,有利于增强信息产业发展战略的科学性和前瞻性.基于logistic成长模型,高精度拟合中国信息产业、信息制造业和信息服务业的演化发展历程,详细揭示中国信息产业及其产业部门的演化发展规律.研究结果表明:我国信息产业及其产业部门的演化发展速度,均符合先慢再快后慢的成长规律;我国信息服务业的发展速度和发展潜力均强于信息制造业,但信息制造业的业态总量远超过信息服务业;总体而言,我国信息产业及其产业部门目前正处于成长后期,发展势头强劲.
As a strategic emerging industry, information industry plays an important role in promoting the development of national economy. Exploring its evolution path in depth is conducive to improving information industry scientifically and strategically. Based on the logistic growth model, this paper precisely analyzes the development process of information industry, information manufacturing and information service industry, and reveals their development rules in detail. The empirical results show that the evolution of the information industry and its industrial sectors in China are consistent with the growth law of slow-fastslow. The development speed and potential of information service industry are stronger than that of information manufacturing industry, but the total amount of information manufacturing industry is far greater than that of information service industry. In general, China's information industry and its industrial sectors are in the late stage of growth, and the development momentum is very strong.
As a strategic emerging industry, information industry plays an important role in promoting the development of national economy. Exploring its evolution path in depth is conducive to improving information industry scientifically and strategically. Based on the logistic growth model, this paper precisely analyzes the development process of information industry, information manufacturing and information service industry, and reveals their development rules in detail. The empirical results show that the evolution of the information industry and its industrial sectors in China are consistent with the growth law of slow-fastslow. The development speed and potential of information service industry are stronger than that of information manufacturing industry, but the total amount of information manufacturing industry is far greater than that of information service industry. In general, China's information industry and its industrial sectors are in the late stage of growth, and the development momentum is very strong.
引文
[1]王立国,曹白杨.中国信息产业对经济增长影响的区域差异——基于热点经济区域面板数据的分析[J].经济与管理研究,2015(4):70-76.
[2]王惠,崔杰,王树乔.江苏省信息产业发展与经济增长关系研究[J].华东经济管理,2014(9):19-22.
[3]赖志花,王必锋.河北省信息产业对经济增长的间接贡献度测量分析[J].经济与管理,2011,25(11):79-82.
[4]孙红蕾,郑建明.信息产业要素对区域经济增长贡献分析[J].情报科学,2016, 34(7):91-95.
[5]周敏.浙江省信息产业关联效应研究[J].财经问题研究,2016(6):18-22.
[6]孟校臣.信息产业的投入产出研究——以江苏省为例[J].中国物价,2014(6):63-65.
[7]牟锐,闵连星.信息产业投入产出经济效应分析——两部门视角[J].软科学,2015, 29(4):38-42.
[8]姚曦,李春玲.Logistic模型曲线的中国广告产业发展阶段判断及预测[J].华侨大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(1):53-66.
[9]刘国亮,李娜,王西.基于logistic模型的我国纺织服装业发展研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(5):71-75.
[10]李全喜,刘岩,刘佳琳,等.基于Logistic回归分析的我国物流产业成长研究[J].软科学,2012, 26(9):7-9.
[11]崔党群. Logistic曲线方程的解析与拟合优度测验[J].数理统计与管理,2005, 24(1):112-115.
[12]殷祚云. Logistic曲线拟合方法研究[J].数理统计与管理,2002,21(1):41-46.
[2]王惠,崔杰,王树乔.江苏省信息产业发展与经济增长关系研究[J].华东经济管理,2014(9):19-22.
[3]赖志花,王必锋.河北省信息产业对经济增长的间接贡献度测量分析[J].经济与管理,2011,25(11):79-82.
[4]孙红蕾,郑建明.信息产业要素对区域经济增长贡献分析[J].情报科学,2016, 34(7):91-95.
[5]周敏.浙江省信息产业关联效应研究[J].财经问题研究,2016(6):18-22.
[6]孟校臣.信息产业的投入产出研究——以江苏省为例[J].中国物价,2014(6):63-65.
[7]牟锐,闵连星.信息产业投入产出经济效应分析——两部门视角[J].软科学,2015, 29(4):38-42.
[8]姚曦,李春玲.Logistic模型曲线的中国广告产业发展阶段判断及预测[J].华侨大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017(1):53-66.
[9]刘国亮,李娜,王西.基于logistic模型的我国纺织服装业发展研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(5):71-75.
[10]李全喜,刘岩,刘佳琳,等.基于Logistic回归分析的我国物流产业成长研究[J].软科学,2012, 26(9):7-9.
[11]崔党群. Logistic曲线方程的解析与拟合优度测验[J].数理统计与管理,2005, 24(1):112-115.
[12]殷祚云. Logistic曲线拟合方法研究[J].数理统计与管理,2002,21(1):41-46.