基于偏最小二乘回归的金融发展、财政政策与城乡收入差距的实证研究
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摘要
本文运用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法分析了金融发展、财政政策和农业农村发展三类共15项因素对我国城乡收入差距的影响。发现我国现有金融发展模式、农村固定资产投资结构、财政收入分权等对缩小城乡收入差距具有阻碍作用,而农业出口、个人所得税占比、财政支出分权和国民经济税赋压力等则有利于缩小城乡收入差距。通过乡村振兴计划推动城乡协调发展过程中,需要进一步完善财政收支和税收政策,注意财政政策和金融政策的协调与配合。
This paper analyzes the impact of financial development, fiscal policy and agricultural and rural development including 15 factors on the income gap between urban and rural areas in China by partial least squares(PLS) regression. It is found that China's existing financial development model, rural fixed asset investment structure and fiscal revenue decentralization have a hindrance to narrowing the urban-rural income gap, while agricultural exports, personal income tax ratio, fiscal expenditure decentralization and national economic tax burden are conducive to narrowing the urban-rural income gap. While applying the rural revitalization plan to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, it is necessary to further improve fiscal revenue and expenditure and taxation policies, and pay attention to the coordination and cooperation of fiscal and financial policies.
This paper analyzes the impact of financial development, fiscal policy and agricultural and rural development including 15 factors on the income gap between urban and rural areas in China by partial least squares(PLS) regression. It is found that China's existing financial development model, rural fixed asset investment structure and fiscal revenue decentralization have a hindrance to narrowing the urban-rural income gap, while agricultural exports, personal income tax ratio, fiscal expenditure decentralization and national economic tax burden are conducive to narrowing the urban-rural income gap. While applying the rural revitalization plan to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, it is necessary to further improve fiscal revenue and expenditure and taxation policies, and pay attention to the coordination and cooperation of fiscal and financial policies.
引文
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[2]Patrick H.T..Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries[J].Economic Development&Cultural Change,1966,20(2).
[3]Greenwood J.,Jovanovic B..Financial development,growth,and distribution of income[J].Journal of Political Economy,1990,98(5).
[4]Clarke G.R.G.,Xu L.C.,Zou H.F..Finance and income inequality:test of alternative theories[R].CEMAWorking Paper 493,2003.
[5]谷小菁.中国城乡金融协调发展障碍与对策[J].金融发展研究,2011(6).
[6]窦欣.促进我国城乡经济协调发展的财税政策选择[J].经营与管理,2011(12).
[7]鲁钊阳.城乡金融制度供给与城乡经济协调发展关系的实证检验[J].统计与决策,2016(18).
[8]马绰欣,田茂再.基于面板分位回归方法的我国金融发展对城乡收入差距影响分析[J].数理统计与管理,2017,36(2).
[9]闫瑞增,王雄,邹玲等.城乡金融非均衡发展对居民收入差距影响研究--基于中国1991-2015年的数据分析[J]财经理论与实践,2018(1).
[10]杨文华.普惠金融视角下的农村金融发展与城乡收入差距关系研究[J].统计与决策,2016(17).
[11]王伟.经济因素、政府政策与城乡居民收入差距关系的实证研究[J].商业经济研究,2014(23).
[12]程开明.从城市偏向到城乡统筹发展--城市偏向政策影响城乡差距的Panel Data证据[J].经济学家,2008(3).
[13]胡晶晶,黄浩.二元经济结构、政府政策与城乡居民收入差距--基于中国东、中、西部地区省级面板数据的经验分析[J].财贸经济,2013,34(4).
[14]林毅夫,刘明兴.中国的经济增长收敛与收入分配[J].世界经济,2003(8).
[15]陈钊,陆铭,金煜.中国人力资本和教育发展的区域差异:对于面板数据的估算[J].世界经济,2004(12).
[16]Wurgler J..Financial markets and the allocation of capital[J].Journal of Financial Economics,2000,58(s1-2).
[17]黄智淋,赖小琼.中国转型期通货膨胀对城乡收入差距的影响--基于省际面板数据的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011(1).
[18]邓光耀.金融发展对中国各省份城乡收入差距的影响研究--基于静态和动态空间面板模型的分析[J].金融理论与实践,2017(9).