发达国家货币紧缩走向研判与中国的应对策略
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摘要
2018年以来,全球经济增长由分化逐渐转为同步放缓,迫使发达国家央行货币政策重新趋于宽松。鉴于当前国际贸易争端不断加剧、英国退欧谈判和地缘政治不确定性增加,市场情绪急剧恶化的可能性仍然存在,给美欧等发达国家货币政策正常化增加了新的变数。总体看来,为应对全球经济下行和流动性收紧,美国和欧元区央行大概率将推迟加息至少至2020年,但长期货币紧缩趋势并未改变。中国作为新兴经济体中的重要一员,应把握好发达国家货币政策收紧放缓的窗口期,巩固提升自身经济增长质量,健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架,通过深入推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革、加快外汇储备多元化等途径来增强金融体系的稳定性与提升应对外部冲击的能力。
Global growth has become synchronously slow from differentiation since 2018, which forces developed countries to shift their monetary policies to a more accommodative stance. Considering the rise of trade tensions and the increasing risks of Brexit as well as geopolitics, the possibility of a sharp deterioration in market sentiment still exists and thus makes the future of the normalization of monetary policy of developed countries unknown. Overall, in response to the global economic downturn and liquidity tightening, it is most possible for the US federal reserve and the European central bank to postpone raising interest rate until at least 2020; however the tendency of tightening from long term is unchanged. Being one of emerging economies, China should make use of this window period, improving its quality of economic growth, perfecting monetary and macro-prudential policies, and promoting the reform of interest rate marketization as well as RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in order to enhance its financial stability and the ability of resisting external shocks.
Global growth has become synchronously slow from differentiation since 2018, which forces developed countries to shift their monetary policies to a more accommodative stance. Considering the rise of trade tensions and the increasing risks of Brexit as well as geopolitics, the possibility of a sharp deterioration in market sentiment still exists and thus makes the future of the normalization of monetary policy of developed countries unknown. Overall, in response to the global economic downturn and liquidity tightening, it is most possible for the US federal reserve and the European central bank to postpone raising interest rate until at least 2020; however the tendency of tightening from long term is unchanged. Being one of emerging economies, China should make use of this window period, improving its quality of economic growth, perfecting monetary and macro-prudential policies, and promoting the reform of interest rate marketization as well as RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in order to enhance its financial stability and the ability of resisting external shocks.
引文
[1]钟正生,张璐.展望2019:美联储缩表的进展与前景[EB / OL].(2008-12-17)https:// wallstreetcn.com/ articles/ 3455526.
[2]陆婷,肖立晟.发达国家货币政策调整与中国应对[J].银行家,2018,(9).
[3]Johnson,S.Emerging Markets Reverse Last Year's Blitz of Rate Rises [EB / OL].(2019-3-25)https:// www.ft.com/ content/ 7eb3322c-4b34-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62.
[4]Fratzscher,M.Capital Flows,Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis [J].Journal of International Economics,2012,88(2).
[5]Milesi - Ferretti,G.M.and Tille,C.The Great Retrenchment:International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis[J].Economic Policy,2011,26(66).
[6]Clark,J.,Converse,N.,Coulibaly,B.,and Kamin,S.Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S.Monetary Police [R].Fed International Finance Discussion Paper.2016.
[7]张明,肖立晟.国际资本流动的驱动因素:新兴市场与发达经济体的比较[J].世界经济,2014,(8).
[8]Ghosh,A.R.,Qureshi,M.S.,Kim,J.,and Zalduendo,J.Surges [J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(2).
[9]张明.美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的新变数与新兴市场经济体的应对策略[J].中国银行业,2013,(1).
[10]Kawamoto,T.and Nakahama,M.Why Did the BOJ Not Achieve the 2 Percent Inflation Target with a Time Horizon of About Two Years?- Examination by Time Series Analysis [R].BOJ Working Paper.July 2017.
[11]IMF.Global Financial Stability Reports:Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle [R].April 2019.
[12]IMF.World Economic Outlook:Growth Slowdown,Precarious Recovery [R].April 2019.
[13]邹宗森,王秀玲,冯等田.第三方汇率波动影响出口贸易关系持续吗?——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2018,(9).
[14]BIS.Annual Economic Report 2018 [R].June 2018.
① 根据美国联邦货币政策委员会(FOMC)声明,初始缩表规模上限的100亿美元中,国债规模60亿美元,抵押货款支持债券40亿美元,缩表规模上限每季度增加100亿美元,其中国债和抵押贷款支持债券分别增加60亿和40亿美元。
(1)不同学者对国际资本流动的驱动因素分类有不同看法,部分学者将其分为推动因素(即在资本供给层面,影响国际资本流向特定国家的全球性因素)和拉动因素(即在资本需求层面,引导国际资本流向特定国家的国内因素),也有学者将其分为结构性因素和周期性因素。
(2)John Clark(2016)等人认为,中国近年来的资本流出比较特殊,尤其是在其持续大规模的人民币汇率干预政策下,因此不适用于其他大多数新兴市场国家。
(3)私人资本流入包括FDI、证券投资组合和其他资本流入。新兴经济体包含的国家有中国、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、捷克、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、以色列、南非和土耳其。左轴为资本流入占GDP的比重。
(4)一般情况下,要求外汇储备至少达到短期外债的一倍以上。
(5)通胀缺口为实际通胀水平与日本央行2%通胀目标的差值。
(6)由于美国股市占全球总市值的比重超过40%,美国股市波动将对全球资本市场产生巨大影响,因此这里主要对美国股市进行分析。
(7)数据来源为国际金融协会(IIF)。
[2]陆婷,肖立晟.发达国家货币政策调整与中国应对[J].银行家,2018,(9).
[3]Johnson,S.Emerging Markets Reverse Last Year's Blitz of Rate Rises [EB / OL].(2019-3-25)https:// www.ft.com/ content/ 7eb3322c-4b34-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62.
[4]Fratzscher,M.Capital Flows,Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis [J].Journal of International Economics,2012,88(2).
[5]Milesi - Ferretti,G.M.and Tille,C.The Great Retrenchment:International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis[J].Economic Policy,2011,26(66).
[6]Clark,J.,Converse,N.,Coulibaly,B.,and Kamin,S.Emerging Market Capital Flows and U.S.Monetary Police [R].Fed International Finance Discussion Paper.2016.
[7]张明,肖立晟.国际资本流动的驱动因素:新兴市场与发达经济体的比较[J].世界经济,2014,(8).
[8]Ghosh,A.R.,Qureshi,M.S.,Kim,J.,and Zalduendo,J.Surges [J].Journal of International Economics,2014,92(2).
[9]张明.美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的新变数与新兴市场经济体的应对策略[J].中国银行业,2013,(1).
[10]Kawamoto,T.and Nakahama,M.Why Did the BOJ Not Achieve the 2 Percent Inflation Target with a Time Horizon of About Two Years?- Examination by Time Series Analysis [R].BOJ Working Paper.July 2017.
[11]IMF.Global Financial Stability Reports:Vulnerabilities in a Maturing Credit Cycle [R].April 2019.
[12]IMF.World Economic Outlook:Growth Slowdown,Precarious Recovery [R].April 2019.
[13]邹宗森,王秀玲,冯等田.第三方汇率波动影响出口贸易关系持续吗?——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证研究[J].国际金融研究,2018,(9).
[14]BIS.Annual Economic Report 2018 [R].June 2018.
① 根据美国联邦货币政策委员会(FOMC)声明,初始缩表规模上限的100亿美元中,国债规模60亿美元,抵押货款支持债券40亿美元,缩表规模上限每季度增加100亿美元,其中国债和抵押贷款支持债券分别增加60亿和40亿美元。
(1)不同学者对国际资本流动的驱动因素分类有不同看法,部分学者将其分为推动因素(即在资本供给层面,影响国际资本流向特定国家的全球性因素)和拉动因素(即在资本需求层面,引导国际资本流向特定国家的国内因素),也有学者将其分为结构性因素和周期性因素。
(2)John Clark(2016)等人认为,中国近年来的资本流出比较特殊,尤其是在其持续大规模的人民币汇率干预政策下,因此不适用于其他大多数新兴市场国家。
(3)私人资本流入包括FDI、证券投资组合和其他资本流入。新兴经济体包含的国家有中国、印度、印度尼西亚、韩国、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、捷克、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、以色列、南非和土耳其。左轴为资本流入占GDP的比重。
(4)一般情况下,要求外汇储备至少达到短期外债的一倍以上。
(5)通胀缺口为实际通胀水平与日本央行2%通胀目标的差值。
(6)由于美国股市占全球总市值的比重超过40%,美国股市波动将对全球资本市场产生巨大影响,因此这里主要对美国股市进行分析。
(7)数据来源为国际金融协会(IIF)。