气候变化下三峡水库防洪调度方式优化与实践
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摘要
近年来长江中下游地区降水明显偏多,呈现出强度大、时间连续、区域集中的特点,分析了长江流域降水变化趋势,介绍了变化条件下三峡水库防洪调度方式优化方案,以2016年和2017年三峡水库防洪调度实践为例,具体说明防洪调度策略动态调整情况,可为巨型水库联合防洪调度决策的制定提供一定参考。
The precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has exhibited an increasing trend in recent years,along with the characteristics of higher intensity,more frequency and higher localized concentration. This paper analyzes the variation trend of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and introduces the optimization scheme of flood control operation mode of the Three Gorges Reservoir under the climate change conditions. Taking the flood control operation application of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2016 and 2017 as examples,the dynamic adjustment of flood control operation strategy is illustrated in detail,which can provide certain reference for the decision-making on large-scale multi-reservoir joint dispatching.
The precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has exhibited an increasing trend in recent years,along with the characteristics of higher intensity,more frequency and higher localized concentration. This paper analyzes the variation trend of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and introduces the optimization scheme of flood control operation mode of the Three Gorges Reservoir under the climate change conditions. Taking the flood control operation application of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2016 and 2017 as examples,the dynamic adjustment of flood control operation strategy is illustrated in detail,which can provide certain reference for the decision-making on large-scale multi-reservoir joint dispatching.
引文
[1]徐文彬.气候变化对我国重大工程的影响和挑战[N].中国气象报,2015-11-2(003).
[2]周建军.三峡工程建成后长江中游的防洪形势和解决方案(Ⅰ)[J].科技导报,2010,28(22):60-68.
[3]张建敏,黄朝迎,吴金栋.气候变化对三峡水库运行风险的影响[J].地理学报,2000,55(增刊):26-33.
[4] Zheng S.Reflections on the Three Gorges Project since its opera tion[J]. Engineering,2016(2):389-397.
[5]郑守仁.三峡水库实施中小洪水调度风险分析及对策探讨[J].人民长江,2015,46(5):7-12.
[6]郑守仁.三峡工程利用洪水资源与发挥综合效益问题探讨[J].人民长江,2013,44(15):1-6.
[7]杨春花,许继军,董玲燕.金沙江下游梯级水库配合三峡水库联合防洪调度效果分析[J].长江科学院院报,2010,27(10):5-9.
[8]郑守仁.从2016年长江洪水看三峡工程防洪作用[J].长江技术经济,2017(1):38-42.
[9]水利部长江水利委员会.长江委超前谋划抢先机全力以赴保安澜[J].中国水利,2016(24):116-121.
[10]金兴平.长江上游水库群2016年洪水联合防洪调度研究[J].人民长江,2017,48(4):22-27.
[11]陈桂亚,廖鸿志.2016年三峡等干支流水库联合调度过程回顾与思考[J].中国防汛抗旱,2016,50-51.
[12]陈敏.长江流域水库群联合调度实践的分析与思考[J].中国防汛抗旱,2017,27(1):40-44.
[2]周建军.三峡工程建成后长江中游的防洪形势和解决方案(Ⅰ)[J].科技导报,2010,28(22):60-68.
[3]张建敏,黄朝迎,吴金栋.气候变化对三峡水库运行风险的影响[J].地理学报,2000,55(增刊):26-33.
[4] Zheng S.Reflections on the Three Gorges Project since its opera tion[J]. Engineering,2016(2):389-397.
[5]郑守仁.三峡水库实施中小洪水调度风险分析及对策探讨[J].人民长江,2015,46(5):7-12.
[6]郑守仁.三峡工程利用洪水资源与发挥综合效益问题探讨[J].人民长江,2013,44(15):1-6.
[7]杨春花,许继军,董玲燕.金沙江下游梯级水库配合三峡水库联合防洪调度效果分析[J].长江科学院院报,2010,27(10):5-9.
[8]郑守仁.从2016年长江洪水看三峡工程防洪作用[J].长江技术经济,2017(1):38-42.
[9]水利部长江水利委员会.长江委超前谋划抢先机全力以赴保安澜[J].中国水利,2016(24):116-121.
[10]金兴平.长江上游水库群2016年洪水联合防洪调度研究[J].人民长江,2017,48(4):22-27.
[11]陈桂亚,廖鸿志.2016年三峡等干支流水库联合调度过程回顾与思考[J].中国防汛抗旱,2016,50-51.
[12]陈敏.长江流域水库群联合调度实践的分析与思考[J].中国防汛抗旱,2017,27(1):40-44.