村镇易涝区动态洪水风险分析模型研究
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摘要
国内广大村镇地区的防洪工程措施较为薄弱,防洪标准也较低,进行洪水风险分析研究可以作为非常重要的非工程型措施。以海南万宁市万城镇易涝区洪水风险分析为例,基于一维、二维耦合水动力学模型构建了万城镇易涝区洪水风险分析模型,利用历史洪涝资料验证了模型的可靠性。考虑到实际防汛中洪水来源的不确定性,在模型中引入降雨、潮位等动态风险因子实现了万城镇易涝区动态洪水风险分析模型,实现了针对任意降雨、潮位边界条件下的洪水风险分析。研究成果对村镇地区的洪涝预测预警、抢险救灾等工作具有参考价值。
The flood control engineering measures in the vast number of villages and towns in China are relatively weak, and the flood control standards are also low. The flood risk analysis and research can be regarded as a very important non-engineering measure. Taking the flood risk analysis of Wancheng Town as an example, which is located in Wanning City, Hainan Province, this paper constructs a flood risk analysis model based on the one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic model, and uses the historical flood data to verify the reliability of the model. Considering the uncertainty of the flood source in the actual flood control, the dynamic risk factors such as rainfall and tide level are introduced into the model to realize the dynamic flood risk analysis model of waterlogged areas in Wancheng Town, and the flood risk analysis under arbitrary rainfall and tidal boundary conditions is realized. The research results have reference value for flood forecasting, early warning, rescue and disaster relief in villages and towns.
The flood control engineering measures in the vast number of villages and towns in China are relatively weak, and the flood control standards are also low. The flood risk analysis and research can be regarded as a very important non-engineering measure. Taking the flood risk analysis of Wancheng Town as an example, which is located in Wanning City, Hainan Province, this paper constructs a flood risk analysis model based on the one-dimensional and two-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic model, and uses the historical flood data to verify the reliability of the model. Considering the uncertainty of the flood source in the actual flood control, the dynamic risk factors such as rainfall and tide level are introduced into the model to realize the dynamic flood risk analysis model of waterlogged areas in Wancheng Town, and the flood risk analysis under arbitrary rainfall and tidal boundary conditions is realized. The research results have reference value for flood forecasting, early warning, rescue and disaster relief in villages and towns.
引文
[1] 赵珂珂,刘曙光,殷黎黎. 我国村镇防洪设计规范综述[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2010,(10):50-52.
[2] 陈璐佳,罗小龙,许有鹏. 洪水风险图对鄞东南平原区域经济发展作用分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2014,(12):96-99,108.
[3] 王高丹,张建平,赵旭升,等. 基于多源数据的村镇山洪风险分析和评价研究[J]. 人民珠江,2017,(4):35-42,81.
[4] 申邵洪,江炎生,蔡斌,等. 城镇区域洪水风险分析研究——以湖北省保康县为例[J]. 长江科学院院报,2016,(11):109-115.
[5] 练继建,宋文峰,徐奎,等. 万泉河加积坝下游农村地区洪涝脆弱性研究[J]. 天津大学学报,2017,(7):703-709.
[6] 付成威,苑希民,杨敏. 实时动态耦合模型及其在洪水风险图中的应用[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2013,(5):32-38.
[7] 钟桂辉,刘曙光,张枭鸣,等. 阳澄淀泖区动态洪水风险图的编制及其管理系统的开发[J]. 水利水电科技进展,2017,(6):62-68.
[8] 吴滨滨,刘凤彩,喻海军,等.大陆泽及宁晋泊蓄滞洪区洪水风险实时分析系统研发[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2017,(2):16-22.
[9] 寇嘉玮,董增川,朱振业. 洪泽湖周边滞洪区暴雨内涝预报预警系统研究[J]. 人民长江,2018,(10);6-10,35.
[10] 李光炽,王船海. 流域洪水演进模型通用算法研究[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版),2005,(6):624-628.
[11] P Brufau, P Garcia-navarro, M E Vazquez-cendon. Zero mass error using unsteady wetting-drying conditions in shallow flows over dry irregular topography[J]. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids,2004,45:1 047-1 082.
[12] 王志力,耿艳芬,金生. 具有复杂计算域和地形的二维浅水流动数值模拟[J]. 水利学报,2005,(4):439-444.
[13] 张大伟,李丹勋,陈稚聪,等. 溃堤洪水的一维、二维耦合水动力模型及应用[J]. 水力发电学报,2010,(2):149-154.
[2] 陈璐佳,罗小龙,许有鹏. 洪水风险图对鄞东南平原区域经济发展作用分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电,2014,(12):96-99,108.
[3] 王高丹,张建平,赵旭升,等. 基于多源数据的村镇山洪风险分析和评价研究[J]. 人民珠江,2017,(4):35-42,81.
[4] 申邵洪,江炎生,蔡斌,等. 城镇区域洪水风险分析研究——以湖北省保康县为例[J]. 长江科学院院报,2016,(11):109-115.
[5] 练继建,宋文峰,徐奎,等. 万泉河加积坝下游农村地区洪涝脆弱性研究[J]. 天津大学学报,2017,(7):703-709.
[6] 付成威,苑希民,杨敏. 实时动态耦合模型及其在洪水风险图中的应用[J]. 水利水运工程学报,2013,(5):32-38.
[7] 钟桂辉,刘曙光,张枭鸣,等. 阳澄淀泖区动态洪水风险图的编制及其管理系统的开发[J]. 水利水电科技进展,2017,(6):62-68.
[8] 吴滨滨,刘凤彩,喻海军,等.大陆泽及宁晋泊蓄滞洪区洪水风险实时分析系统研发[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2017,(2):16-22.
[9] 寇嘉玮,董增川,朱振业. 洪泽湖周边滞洪区暴雨内涝预报预警系统研究[J]. 人民长江,2018,(10);6-10,35.
[10] 李光炽,王船海. 流域洪水演进模型通用算法研究[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版),2005,(6):624-628.
[11] P Brufau, P Garcia-navarro, M E Vazquez-cendon. Zero mass error using unsteady wetting-drying conditions in shallow flows over dry irregular topography[J]. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids,2004,45:1 047-1 082.
[12] 王志力,耿艳芬,金生. 具有复杂计算域和地形的二维浅水流动数值模拟[J]. 水利学报,2005,(4):439-444.
[13] 张大伟,李丹勋,陈稚聪,等. 溃堤洪水的一维、二维耦合水动力模型及应用[J]. 水力发电学报,2010,(2):149-154.