云南省县(市)区应急备震能力评估方法研究及应用
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摘要
震前做好应急备震工作是有效应对地震灾害风险、减轻灾害损失的重要手段。本文基于云南地区震害背景和区域特征,采用层次分析法构建了围绕1个目标层、4个准则层和23个指标层的应急备震能力评估指标体系的层次模型,对云南省129个县(市)区的应急综合备震能力进行了评估和分级。结果表明:从全省单项指标分析结果看,地震应急组织机构健全度和地震应急资源基础保障能力2项指标差距小,空间分布均匀,综合指数较高的区域集中在滇中的昆明和滇西的大理地区;地震应急灾情获取与评估能力2项指标综合指数较高的县分布于滇东和滇西地区的昆明、玉溪、大理、楚雄等地;昆明、大理地震紧急救援能力相对较高。从应急备震综合能力分析结果看,云南省17个县较高,8个县相对较弱,综合能力较强区域主要分布在滇中、滇西等地的昆明、玉溪、普洱等地,滇西北的怒江和滇东南的文山等地综合能力较低。
The earthquake emergency preparedness(EEP) before the earthquake is important for dealing with the earthquake disaster risk and reducing the disaster loss. In this paper, based on earthquake damage background and regional seismic characteristics in Yunnan Province, we constructed a hierarchical model of so called "Earthquake Emergency Preparedness Assessment Index System" which includes 1 target layer, 4 benchmark layers and 23 index layers by the analytic hierarchy process. Then we took 129 counties in Yunnan Province as an example to evaluate and classify the comprehensive EEP capability. The single index results show that the difference between the perfect earthquake emergency organization and basic support capability of earthquake emergency resources is small and the spatial distribution of them is even. The comprehensive ability regions are located in Kunming in central Yunnan and Dali in western Yunnan. The counties with high ability in obtaining and evaluating earthquake emergency disaster are distributed in Kunming, Yuxi, Dali, and Chuxiong etc. in eastern and western Yunnan Province. Dali and Kunming are relatively higher in the earthquake emergency rescue capacity. From the point view of the comprehensive ability of EEP, the ability of 17 counties in Yunnan province are relatively high, which are mainly distributed in Kunming, Yuxi, Pu'er etc. in central Yunnan, western Yunnan, such as Kunming, Yuxi, Pu'er etc. However, 8 counties are relatively weak in comprehensive ability, which are around the Nujiang River in northwest Yunnan and Wenshan mountain in southeast Yunnan.
The earthquake emergency preparedness(EEP) before the earthquake is important for dealing with the earthquake disaster risk and reducing the disaster loss. In this paper, based on earthquake damage background and regional seismic characteristics in Yunnan Province, we constructed a hierarchical model of so called "Earthquake Emergency Preparedness Assessment Index System" which includes 1 target layer, 4 benchmark layers and 23 index layers by the analytic hierarchy process. Then we took 129 counties in Yunnan Province as an example to evaluate and classify the comprehensive EEP capability. The single index results show that the difference between the perfect earthquake emergency organization and basic support capability of earthquake emergency resources is small and the spatial distribution of them is even. The comprehensive ability regions are located in Kunming in central Yunnan and Dali in western Yunnan. The counties with high ability in obtaining and evaluating earthquake emergency disaster are distributed in Kunming, Yuxi, Dali, and Chuxiong etc. in eastern and western Yunnan Province. Dali and Kunming are relatively higher in the earthquake emergency rescue capacity. From the point view of the comprehensive ability of EEP, the ability of 17 counties in Yunnan province are relatively high, which are mainly distributed in Kunming, Yuxi, Pu'er etc. in central Yunnan, western Yunnan, such as Kunming, Yuxi, Pu'er etc. However, 8 counties are relatively weak in comprehensive ability, which are around the Nujiang River in northwest Yunnan and Wenshan mountain in southeast Yunnan.
引文
曹彦波,李永强,2017.云南地震应急关键技术与信息服务.昆明:云南科技出版社.
陈安,迟菲,2016.2014~2015年中国31个省市区应急表现能力评价.安全,37(10):1-3,7.
陈升,刘思利,2016.政府应急管理能力及应急管理绩效的比较实证研究--基于汶川地震与芦山地震受灾群众的视角.灾害学,31(3):160-164.
邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武,2010.县(市)地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建.灾害学,25(3):125-129.
邓砚,2011.县市政府地震应急行为模式和区域地震应急能力评估方法研究.北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武,2011.县(市)绝对地震应急能力评估方法的初步研究.地震地质,33(1):36-44.
邓砚,聂高众,安基文,2012.区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵构建方法的初步研究--以四川省为例.灾害学,27(2):124-129.
法律出版社,2008.中华人民共和国突发事件应对法(注释本第1版).北京:法律出版社.
冯百侠,2006.城市灾害应急能力评价的基本框架.河北理工大学学报(社会科学版),6(4):210-212.
黄元敏,胡秀敏,黄腾浪等,2015.广东省县(市)地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建与分析.华南地震,35(4):59-65.
李曼,邓砚,苏桂武,2012.基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价.灾害学,27(2):140-144.
李亦纲,吴建春,张媛等,2011.地震应急救援能力评价指标与计算方法研究.震灾防御技术,6(2):172-179.
刘军,苏桂武,孙甲宁等,2016.新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力指标体系的建立与区域差异初探.震灾防御技术,11(4):814-822.
聂高众,安基文,邓砚,2011.地震应急评估与决策指标体系的构建.震灾防御技术,6(2):146-155.
王建军,刘冠中,2015.基于地震灾害背景的县(市)应急救援能力建设需求评价.自然灾害学报,24(6):120-130.
王静爱,施之海,刘珍等,2006.中国自然灾害灾后响应能力评价与地域差异.自然灾害学报,15(6):23-27.
吴新燕,2006.城市地震灾害风险分析与应急准备能力评价体系的研究.北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
吴新燕,顾建华,2007.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展.自然灾害学报,16(6):109-114.
谢振华,2015.县级政府应对群体性突发事件能力的评估与提升策略研究.湘潭:湘潭大学.
杨斌,马朝晖,2014.基于地震应急基础数据的山西地震应急能力评价指标体系建设.震灾防御技术,9(1):118-125.
张勤,高亦飞,高娜等,2009.城镇社区地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建.灾害学,24(3):133-136.
郑双忠,邓云峰,江田汉,2006.城市应急能力评估体系Kappa分析.中国安全科学学报,16(2):69-72.
周光全,非明伦,毛燕等,2011.云南地震灾害特征及经济损失评估技术研究.昆明:云南科技出版社.
James L.W.,1997.A report to the Unite States senate committee on appropriations:state capability assessment forreadiness.Federal Emergency,6(12):122-125.
Paton D.,Anderson E.,Becker J.,et al.,2015.Developing a comprehensive model of hazard preparedness:lessonsfrom the Christchurch earthquake.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,14:37-45.
Shapira S.,Aharonson-Daniel L.,Bar-Dayan Y.,2018.Anticipated behavioral response patterns to an earthquake:the role of personal and household characteristics,risk perception,previous experience and preparedness.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,31:1-8.
Zulean M.,Prelipcean G.,2013.Emergency preparedness in Romania:dynamics,shortcomings and policy proposals.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,80(9):1714-1724.
陈安,迟菲,2016.2014~2015年中国31个省市区应急表现能力评价.安全,37(10):1-3,7.
陈升,刘思利,2016.政府应急管理能力及应急管理绩效的比较实证研究--基于汶川地震与芦山地震受灾群众的视角.灾害学,31(3):160-164.
邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武,2010.县(市)地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建.灾害学,25(3):125-129.
邓砚,2011.县市政府地震应急行为模式和区域地震应急能力评估方法研究.北京:中国地震局地质研究所.
邓砚,聂高众,苏桂武,2011.县(市)绝对地震应急能力评估方法的初步研究.地震地质,33(1):36-44.
邓砚,聂高众,安基文,2012.区域地震应急能力优先建设矩阵构建方法的初步研究--以四川省为例.灾害学,27(2):124-129.
法律出版社,2008.中华人民共和国突发事件应对法(注释本第1版).北京:法律出版社.
冯百侠,2006.城市灾害应急能力评价的基本框架.河北理工大学学报(社会科学版),6(4):210-212.
黄元敏,胡秀敏,黄腾浪等,2015.广东省县(市)地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建与分析.华南地震,35(4):59-65.
李曼,邓砚,苏桂武,2012.基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价.灾害学,27(2):140-144.
李亦纲,吴建春,张媛等,2011.地震应急救援能力评价指标与计算方法研究.震灾防御技术,6(2):172-179.
刘军,苏桂武,孙甲宁等,2016.新疆地区县(市)地震应急能力指标体系的建立与区域差异初探.震灾防御技术,11(4):814-822.
聂高众,安基文,邓砚,2011.地震应急评估与决策指标体系的构建.震灾防御技术,6(2):146-155.
王建军,刘冠中,2015.基于地震灾害背景的县(市)应急救援能力建设需求评价.自然灾害学报,24(6):120-130.
王静爱,施之海,刘珍等,2006.中国自然灾害灾后响应能力评价与地域差异.自然灾害学报,15(6):23-27.
吴新燕,2006.城市地震灾害风险分析与应急准备能力评价体系的研究.北京:中国地震局地球物理研究所.
吴新燕,顾建华,2007.国内外城市灾害应急能力评价的研究进展.自然灾害学报,16(6):109-114.
谢振华,2015.县级政府应对群体性突发事件能力的评估与提升策略研究.湘潭:湘潭大学.
杨斌,马朝晖,2014.基于地震应急基础数据的山西地震应急能力评价指标体系建设.震灾防御技术,9(1):118-125.
张勤,高亦飞,高娜等,2009.城镇社区地震应急能力评价指标体系的构建.灾害学,24(3):133-136.
郑双忠,邓云峰,江田汉,2006.城市应急能力评估体系Kappa分析.中国安全科学学报,16(2):69-72.
周光全,非明伦,毛燕等,2011.云南地震灾害特征及经济损失评估技术研究.昆明:云南科技出版社.
James L.W.,1997.A report to the Unite States senate committee on appropriations:state capability assessment forreadiness.Federal Emergency,6(12):122-125.
Paton D.,Anderson E.,Becker J.,et al.,2015.Developing a comprehensive model of hazard preparedness:lessonsfrom the Christchurch earthquake.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,14:37-45.
Shapira S.,Aharonson-Daniel L.,Bar-Dayan Y.,2018.Anticipated behavioral response patterns to an earthquake:the role of personal and household characteristics,risk perception,previous experience and preparedness.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,31:1-8.
Zulean M.,Prelipcean G.,2013.Emergency preparedness in Romania:dynamics,shortcomings and policy proposals.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,80(9):1714-1724.