近60年山西省气候变化趋势及其对粮食作物产量的影响
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摘要
利用山西省近60年的气象数据,采用重标极差方法对该省未来的气候变化趋势进行了预测和分析,并建立了种植业生产函数的线性模型,引入气候要素与非气候要素的交互项分析非气候要素投入如何改变气候要素对粮食作物单产的影响。结果表明:未来日照时数和降水会呈下降趋势,气温会保持上升趋势,而日照时数减少、气温上升和降水减少不利于粮食增产;非气候要素投入会改变气候要素变化对粮食作物生产的影响,随着气温上升、降水减少,增加灌溉、化肥投入对玉米增产意义不大,但可显著提升小麦单产。从人工光照技术开发、推广耐旱作物品种、完善农田灌溉设施等方面给出了提升山西省粮食作物生产适应气候变化能力的建议。
This paper used the meteorological data of Shanxi Province for the past 60 years to forecast and analyze the future climate change trends in Shanxi Province using the method of re-scale extremes,and established a linear model of the crop production function,introduced the interaction of climate and non-climatic elements. This paper analyzed the how non-climate input contributes to change the impact of climatic factors on yields of food crops. The results showed that: Sunshine hours and precipitation would show a downward trend in the future,and the temperature would maintain an upward trend,decreasing the number of sunshine hours,rising temperatures,and reducing precipitation was not conducive to increase grain production. The input of non-climate factors would change the impact of changes in climate factors on the production of food crops. With the increase of temperature and precipitation,increasing the input of irrigation and chemical fertilizers would not significantly increase the yield of maize,but it could significantly increase wheat yield. This paper gave suggestions for improving the ability of food crop production in Shanxi Province to adapt to climate change from the development of artificial lighting technology,the promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties,and the improvement of farmland irrigation facilities.
This paper used the meteorological data of Shanxi Province for the past 60 years to forecast and analyze the future climate change trends in Shanxi Province using the method of re-scale extremes,and established a linear model of the crop production function,introduced the interaction of climate and non-climatic elements. This paper analyzed the how non-climate input contributes to change the impact of climatic factors on yields of food crops. The results showed that: Sunshine hours and precipitation would show a downward trend in the future,and the temperature would maintain an upward trend,decreasing the number of sunshine hours,rising temperatures,and reducing precipitation was not conducive to increase grain production. The input of non-climate factors would change the impact of changes in climate factors on the production of food crops. With the increase of temperature and precipitation,increasing the input of irrigation and chemical fertilizers would not significantly increase the yield of maize,but it could significantly increase wheat yield. This paper gave suggestions for improving the ability of food crop production in Shanxi Province to adapt to climate change from the development of artificial lighting technology,the promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties,and the improvement of farmland irrigation facilities.
引文
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[19]张荣荣,宁晓菊,秦耀辰,等. 1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2018,40(1)∶137-149.
[20]曹广平,陈永福.气候变暖等因素对山东省种植业产出的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3)∶32-36.
[21]秦耀辰,刘凯.分形理论在地理学中的应用研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(4)∶426-436.
[22]Carr J R. Statistical Self-affinity,Fractal Dimension,and Geological Interpretation[J]. Engineering Geology,1997,48(3)∶269-282.
[23]李国栋,张俊华,王乃昂,等.基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测—以兰州市为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(2)∶299-307.
[24]杨宇.气候变化对黄淮海平原粮食生产力影响的实证研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(6)∶130-135.
[25]吴清华,李谷成,周晓时,等.基础设施、农业区位与种植业结构调整——基于1995—2013年省级面板数据的实证[J].农业技术经济,2015,3(3)∶25-32.
[26]杨帆,孟远夺,姜义,等. 2013年我国种植业化肥施用状况分析[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2015,21(1)∶217-225.
[27]曹雪,阿依吐尔逊·沙木西,金晓斌,等.水资源约束条件下的干旱区种植业结构优化分析——以新疆库尔勒市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(9)∶1714-1719.
[2]Holzkamper A,Calanca P,Honti M,et al. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Grain Maize Based on Three Different Crop Model Approaches[J]. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology,2015,45(4)∶219-230.
[3]李彩侠,李俏,孙天一,等.气候变化对黑龙江省主要农作物产量的影响[J].自然灾害学报,2014,23(6)∶200-208.
[4]De la Casa A C,Ovando G G. Climate Change and Its Impact on Agriculture Potential in the Central Region of Argentina Between 1941 and2010[J]. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology,2014,4(5)∶1-14.
[5]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1)∶1-11.
[6]Carlos Angulo,Reimund Rotter,Reiner Lock,et al. Implication of Crop Model Calibration Strategies for Assessing Regional Impacts of Climate Change in Europe[J]. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology,2013,170(3)∶32-46.
[7]杨沈斌,申双和,赵小艳,等.气候变化对长江中下游稻区水稻产量的影响[J].作物学报,2010,36(9)∶1519-1528.
[8]纪瑞鹏,张玉书,姜丽霞,等.气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响[J].地理研究,2012,31(2)∶290-298.
[9]崔静,王秀清,辛贤,等.生长期气候变化对中国主要粮食作物单产的影响[J].中国农村经济,2011,9(2)∶13-22.
[10]陈帅,徐晋涛,张海鹏.气候变化对中国粮食生产的影响——基于县级面板数据的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2016,5(6)∶2-15.
[11]潘根兴,高民,胡国华,等.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].农业环境科学学报,2011,30(9)∶1698-1706.
[12]刘天军,蔡起华,朱玉春.气候变化对苹果主产区产量的影响——来自陕西省6个苹果生产基地县210户果农的数据[J].中国农村经济,2012,12(5)∶32-40.
[13]刘颖杰,林而达.气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(4)∶229-233.
[14]马玉平,孙琳丽,俄有浩等,预测未来40年气候变化对我国玉米产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(1)∶224-232.
[15]纪瑞鹏,张玉书,姜丽霞,等.气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响[J].地理研究,2012,31(2)∶290-298.
[16]宋佃星,马莉.宝鸡市气候变化及其对小麦产量的影响[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(19)∶147-151.
[17]朱珠,陶福禄,娄运生,等.1981—2009年江苏省气候变化趋势及其对水稻产量的影响[J].中国农业气象.2012,33(4)∶567-572.
[18]赵国良,高强,姚小英,等,气候变暖对天水市作物生长的影响——以冬油菜为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(6)∶261-266.
[19]张荣荣,宁晓菊,秦耀辰,等. 1980年以来河南省主要粮食作物产量对气候变化的敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2018,40(1)∶137-149.
[20]曹广平,陈永福.气候变暖等因素对山东省种植业产出的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3)∶32-36.
[21]秦耀辰,刘凯.分形理论在地理学中的应用研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2003,22(4)∶426-436.
[22]Carr J R. Statistical Self-affinity,Fractal Dimension,and Geological Interpretation[J]. Engineering Geology,1997,48(3)∶269-282.
[23]李国栋,张俊华,王乃昂,等.基于重标极差分析和非周期循环分析的气候变化趋势预测—以兰州市为例[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(2)∶299-307.
[24]杨宇.气候变化对黄淮海平原粮食生产力影响的实证研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(6)∶130-135.
[25]吴清华,李谷成,周晓时,等.基础设施、农业区位与种植业结构调整——基于1995—2013年省级面板数据的实证[J].农业技术经济,2015,3(3)∶25-32.
[26]杨帆,孟远夺,姜义,等. 2013年我国种植业化肥施用状况分析[J].植物营养与肥料学报,2015,21(1)∶217-225.
[27]曹雪,阿依吐尔逊·沙木西,金晓斌,等.水资源约束条件下的干旱区种植业结构优化分析——以新疆库尔勒市为例[J].资源科学,2011,33(9)∶1714-1719.