渭河上游径流变化特征及归因研究
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摘要
分析渭河上游降水量、径流量的变化趋势和径流量的突变点,定量计算气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献,揭示渭河上游径流变化原因,为渭河流域水资源管理及开发利用提供依据。基于1961-2015年降水和径流数据,采用线性回归、Mann-Kendall检验和双累积曲线等方法分析渭河上游降水和径流演变规律。结果表明:渭河上游降水及径流的年际变化趋势均呈下降趋势,径流突变点为1970、1987、1990和1993年,根据突变点确定渭河上游径流基准期为1961-1969年;通过双累积曲线法的定量分析结果表明:人类活动是渭河上游径流减少的主要影响因素。总体上,近年来人类活动对径流的影响呈现增加趋势,2010-2015年间人类活动对径流影响的贡献率高达98. 32%。气候变化对径流变化有一定影响,尤其是,1990-1999年间气候变化对径流量影响占到22.52%。统计资料表明:在这段时间内,渭河流域发生多次极端干旱事件,导致渭河上游降水量骤减,使得气候变化对渭河上游径流变化的贡献增加。
The change trend of precipitation and runoff and the abrupt point of runoff in the upstream of Weihe River Basin( WRB) were analyzed. The contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff was quantitatively calculated,and the reason for the runoff variation in the upstream of WRB was revealed,which provided the basis for the management and development and utilization of water resources in the WRB. Based on the precipitation and runoff data during 1961-2015,the evolution laws of precipitation and runoff in the upstream of WRB were analyzed by using linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and double cumulative curve method. The results showed that the trends of the precipitation and runoff volume change characteristics in the upstream of WRB were decreased. The abrupt points were in 1970,1987,1990 and 1993. According to the abrupt point,the base period for the upstream of WRB was 1961-1969. The quantitative analysis of the double cumulative curve method shows that human activities are the main factors which influence runoff reduction. On the whole,the impact of human activities on the contribution of runoff activity shows an increasing trend,the contribution rate of human activities on runoff is up to 98. 32% during 2010-2015. Climate change has certain influence on runoff change,especially,the impact of climate change on runoff accounted for 22. 52% during 1990-1999. The statistics show that multiple extreme drought events occurred in the WRB,which causes a drastic decrease of the precipitation in the upstream of WRB. The contribution of climate change to runoff changes in the upstream of WRB has increased.
The change trend of precipitation and runoff and the abrupt point of runoff in the upstream of Weihe River Basin( WRB) were analyzed. The contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff was quantitatively calculated,and the reason for the runoff variation in the upstream of WRB was revealed,which provided the basis for the management and development and utilization of water resources in the WRB. Based on the precipitation and runoff data during 1961-2015,the evolution laws of precipitation and runoff in the upstream of WRB were analyzed by using linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and double cumulative curve method. The results showed that the trends of the precipitation and runoff volume change characteristics in the upstream of WRB were decreased. The abrupt points were in 1970,1987,1990 and 1993. According to the abrupt point,the base period for the upstream of WRB was 1961-1969. The quantitative analysis of the double cumulative curve method shows that human activities are the main factors which influence runoff reduction. On the whole,the impact of human activities on the contribution of runoff activity shows an increasing trend,the contribution rate of human activities on runoff is up to 98. 32% during 2010-2015. Climate change has certain influence on runoff change,especially,the impact of climate change on runoff accounted for 22. 52% during 1990-1999. The statistics show that multiple extreme drought events occurred in the WRB,which causes a drastic decrease of the precipitation in the upstream of WRB. The contribution of climate change to runoff changes in the upstream of WRB has increased.
引文
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[4] JIANG Rengui,XIE Jiancang,HE Hailong,et al. Use of four drought indices for evaluating drought characteristics under climate change in Shaanxi,China:1951-2012[J].Natural Hazards,2015,75(3):2885-2903.
[5]张巧凤,刘桂香,于红博,等.基于标准化降水指数的锡林郭勒盟干旱特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(5):119-128.
[6]HAO Xingming,CHEN Yaning,XU Changchun,et al. Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the last fifty Years[J].Water Resources Management,2008,22(9):1159-1171.
[7]姜丽红,贾杰.渭河源区水文气象要素演变趋势及阶段性分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(3):98-104.
[8]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.近50年陕南地区降水时空变化特征[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):14-19+25.
[9]严栋飞,解建仓,姜仁贵,等.汉江上游径流变化趋势及特征分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(6):13-19.
[10] DONG Wen,CUI Baoshan,LIU Zhihui,et al. Relative effects of human activities and climate change on the river runoff in an arid basin in northwest China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2014,28(18):4854-4864.
[11]粟晓玲,康绍忠,魏晓妹,等.气候变化和人类活动对渭河流域入黄径流的影响[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2007,35(2):153-159.
[12]王国庆,张建云,刘九夫,等.气候变化和人类活动对河川径流影响的定量分析[J].中国水利,2008(2):55-58.
[13]王雁,丁永建,叶柏生,等.黄河与长江流域水资源变化原因[J].中国科学:地球科学,2013,43(7):1207-1219.
[14]刘剑宇,张强,陈喜,等.气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究[J].地理学报,2016,71(11):1875-1885.
[15]穆兴民,张秀勤,高鹏,等.双累积曲线方法理论及在水文气象领域应用中应注意的问题[J].水文,2010,30(4):47-51.
[16]曹建廷,秦大河,罗勇,等.长江源区1956-2000年径流量变化分析[J].水科学进展,2007,18(1):29-33.
[17]师忱,袁士保,史常青,等.滦河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响[J].水土保持学报,2018,32(2):264-269.
[18]王娇,姜仁贵,解建仓,等.泾河流域径流量变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学院,2018,29(6):88-93.