珠江三角洲地区近30年降雨变化趋势及其与气溶胶的关系
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摘要
基于珠江三角洲地区1980~2010年0.5°×0.5°经纬度网格的逐月降水资料,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关法,对珠江三角洲地区近30年的降雨趋势特征进行了分析。研究表明:珠三角地区2~4月降雨量存在显著下降趋势,而6~9月降雨量有显著的上升趋势。从气溶胶的角度对这种趋势产生的原因进行了分析,针对珠三角地区2~4月和6~9月不同的降雨类型,提出气溶胶物质的增多在一定程度上抑制了2~4月锋面雨的形成,而对6~9月台风雨的产生也存在可能影响的假设,并从降雨机制上进行了解释。
Based on the monthly precipitation data in the Pearl River Delta Area from 1980 to 2010, a Mann-Kendall trend test was made in this paper. The results show that the rainfall in the Pearl River Delta Area has a significant declining trend from February to April and a significant decreasing trend from June to September. This paper analyzed the causes of this trend from the perspective of aerosol. The precipitation, which is from February to April, has different rainfall patterns, compared to the precipitation from June to September, this paper hypothesized the increase of aerosol substance, to some extent, inhibited the formation of frontal gland precipitation from February to April and may also has some influence in the typhoon rain from June to September. There is also an explanation of the hypothesis.
Based on the monthly precipitation data in the Pearl River Delta Area from 1980 to 2010, a Mann-Kendall trend test was made in this paper. The results show that the rainfall in the Pearl River Delta Area has a significant declining trend from February to April and a significant decreasing trend from June to September. This paper analyzed the causes of this trend from the perspective of aerosol. The precipitation, which is from February to April, has different rainfall patterns, compared to the precipitation from June to September, this paper hypothesized the increase of aerosol substance, to some extent, inhibited the formation of frontal gland precipitation from February to April and may also has some influence in the typhoon rain from June to September. There is also an explanation of the hypothesis.
引文
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[19]吴兑,廖碧婷,陈慧忠,等.珠江三角洲地区的灰霾天气研究进展[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(2):248-264.(WU Dui,LIAO Biting,CHEN Huizhong,et al.Advances in studies of haze weather over Pearl River delta[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,19(2):248-264.(in Chinese))
[20]李成才,毛杰泰,刘启汉,等.利用MODIS研究中国东部地区气溶胶光学厚度的分布和季节变化特征[J].科学通报,2003,48(19):2094-2100.(LI Chengcai,MAO Jietai,LIU Qihan,et al.Study of the distribution of aerosol optical depth and its seasonal change characteristics,using data from MODIS[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):-2094-2100.(in Chinese))
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[2]任国玉,封国林,严中伟.中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J].气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):337-353.(REN Guoyu,FENG,Guolin,YAN Zhongwei.Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2010,15(4):337-353.(in Chinese))
[3]陈峪,高歌,任国玉,等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.(CHEN Yu,GAO Ge,REN Guoyu,et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten major basins in China between 1956 and 2000[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2005,20(5):637-643.(in Chinese))
[4]王兆礼,陈晓宏,张灵,等.近40年来珠江流域降水量的时空演变特征[J].水文,2006,26(6):71-74.(WANG Zhaoli,CHEN Xiaohong,ZHANG Ling,et al.Spatio-temporal change characteristics of precipitation in the Pearl River basin in recent 40 years[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2006,26(6):71-74.(in Chinese))
[5]张永领,高全洲,丁裕国,等.长江流域夏季降水的时空特征及演化趋势分析[J].热带气象学报,2006,22(4):161-167.(ZHANG Yongling,GAO Quanzhou,DING Yuguo,et al.Analysis of time-spatial characteristics and evolutional trends of summer precipitation in the Yangtze River catchment.[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2006,22(4):161-167.(in Chinese))
[6]秦建国,洪国喜,张涛,等.无锡站年际降雨趋势、特征与预报分析[J].水文,2013,33(4):92-96.(QIN Jianguo,HONG Guoxi,ZHANG Tao,et al.Trend,characteristics and forecasting analysis of tnter-annual rainfall at Wuxi stastion[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2013,33(4):92-96.(in Chinese))
[7]张志才,陈喜,王文,等.贵州降雨变化趋势及机制特征分析[J].地球与环境,2007,35(4):351-355.(ZHANG Zhichang,CHEN Xi,WANGWen,et al.Analysis of rainfall trend and extreme events in Guizhou[J].Earth and Environment,2007,35(4):351-355.(in Chinese))
[8]Chagon,S A.Comments on secular trends of precipitation amount,frequency,and intensity in the Uni ted States[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1998,79:2550-2552.
[9]Iwashima T,Yamamoto R.A statistical analysis of the extreme event:long-term trend of heavy daily precipitation[J].Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan,1993,71:637-640.
[10]Osborn T J,Hulme M,Jones P D,et al.Observed trends in the daily intensity of United Kingdon precipitation[J].International Journal Climatology,2000,20:347-364.
[11]Brunetti M,Maugeri M,Monti F,et al.Changes in daily precipitation frequency and distribution in Italy over the last 120 years[J].Journal of Geophysical Research,2004,109,D05102,doi:10.1029/2003JD004296.
[12]Stone D A,Weaver A J,Zwiers E W.Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity[J].Atmosphere Ocean,1999,37:321-347.
[13]蒋哲,陈良富,王中挺,等.珠江三角洲对流层气溶胶时空变化特征分析[J].地球物理学报,2013,56(6):1835-1842.(JIANG Zhe,CHENLiangfu,WANG Zhongting,et al.The analysis of spatiotemporal variation characteristics of tropospheric Pearl River delta[J].Chinese J.Geophys.,2013,56(6):1835-1842.(in Chinese))
[14]Mann H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica,1945,13(3):245-259.
[15]Kendall M,Gibbons J.Rank Correlation Methods[M].A Charles Griffin Title,1990.
[16]陈燕,蒋维楣,郭文利,等.珠江三角洲地区城市群发展对局地大气污染物扩散的影响[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(5):700-710.(CHENYan,JIANG Weimei,GUO Wenli,et al.Study on the effect of the city group development in Pear River delta on local air pollutant dispersion by numerical modeling[J].Acta Scientiate Circumstantiae,2005,25(5):700-710.(in Chinese))
[17]吴兑,毕雪岩,邓雪娇,等.珠江三角洲气溶胶云造成的严重灰霾天气[J].自然灾害学报,2006,(6).(WU Dui,BI Xueyan,DENG Xuejiao,et al.Heavy haze weather resulting from aerosol cloud over Pearl River delta[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,(6).(in Chinese))
[18]罗云,炎利军,朱建军.佛山市近三十年气候及灾害性天气变化特征[J].广东气象,2014,(2).(LUO Yun,YAN Lijun,ZHU Jianjun.Change characteristics of climate and disasterous weather in Foshan in recent 30 years[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2014,(2).(in Chinese))
[19]吴兑,廖碧婷,陈慧忠,等.珠江三角洲地区的灰霾天气研究进展[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(2):248-264.(WU Dui,LIAO Biting,CHEN Huizhong,et al.Advances in studies of haze weather over Pearl River delta[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2014,19(2):248-264.(in Chinese))
[20]李成才,毛杰泰,刘启汉,等.利用MODIS研究中国东部地区气溶胶光学厚度的分布和季节变化特征[J].科学通报,2003,48(19):2094-2100.(LI Chengcai,MAO Jietai,LIU Qihan,et al.Study of the distribution of aerosol optical depth and its seasonal change characteristics,using data from MODIS[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(19):-2094-2100.(in Chinese))
[21]Owen.B.Toon,How Pollution Suppresses Rain.Science,2000,287(10):1763-1765.