榆林珍稀沙生植物保护基地降水变化特征
|
摘要
依据陕西省榆林珍稀沙生植物保护基地1961~2014年的逐月降水量,利用多种统计学方法分析并探讨了降水量的时间分布特征、长期变化趋势、突变及未来趋势性分析。研究结果表明:植物保护基地内多年平均降水量为402.4mm,年际降雨量呈缓慢下降趋势。降水年内主要集中在7~9月,但较其他各月变异程度较大。Morlet wavelet小波变换分析表明植物保护基地内降水量存在着5a和7a等中短周期变化。MannKendall检验表明降水量分别于1977、1986、1996和1998年发生突变,年降水量逐步进入少雨期。R/S分析表明未来降雨量呈平缓下降趋势,但无明显持续性特征,与过往降雨量相关性较小,受外界因素影响变大。
By using the monthly rainfall data( 1961 ~ 2010) of Yulin Psammophyte Reserve,we analyzed the characteristics of rainfall distribution,long term trend,abrupt and periodic changes through various statistical methods. The results indicate that average annual precipitation was 402. 4mm,and the interannual precipitation was decreasing slowly. Precipitation was more concentrated in July to Sept which also had higher variations compared to other months. Morlet wavelet transform analysis showed there were short to middle term variances such as 5a and 7a existed for the periodic changes of precipitation. Mann-Kendall test showed there were abrupt points appeared for the precipitation in 1977,1986,1996 and 1998,and stepwise changed from the pluvial periods to the dry periods. Base on R / S analysis,the future tendency of precipitation will be decreased persistently.However there were no obvious main cycle changes and autocorrelation was weak.
By using the monthly rainfall data( 1961 ~ 2010) of Yulin Psammophyte Reserve,we analyzed the characteristics of rainfall distribution,long term trend,abrupt and periodic changes through various statistical methods. The results indicate that average annual precipitation was 402. 4mm,and the interannual precipitation was decreasing slowly. Precipitation was more concentrated in July to Sept which also had higher variations compared to other months. Morlet wavelet transform analysis showed there were short to middle term variances such as 5a and 7a existed for the periodic changes of precipitation. Mann-Kendall test showed there were abrupt points appeared for the precipitation in 1977,1986,1996 and 1998,and stepwise changed from the pluvial periods to the dry periods. Base on R / S analysis,the future tendency of precipitation will be decreased persistently.However there were no obvious main cycle changes and autocorrelation was weak.
引文
[1]肖莞生,陈子燊.广东沿海降水长期变化特征与极值分析-以汕尾、广州、阳江3市为例[J].热带地理,2010,30(2):136-140.
[2]Shi W L,Yu X Z,Liao W G,et al.Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation concentration in the Lancang River basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,495(12):197-207.
[3]Liang L Q,Li L J,Liu Q.Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,404(1-2):67-76.
[4]Zhu L K,Meng J J.Study on rainfall variations in the middle part of Inner Mongolia,China during the past 43 years[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2010,60(8):1661-1671.
[5]白爱娟,刘晓东.从气候标准的改变分析西北地区的气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2005,24(4):146-153.
[6]赵传成,王雁,丁永健,等.西北地区近50年气温及降水的时空变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):385-390.
[7]于延胜,陈兴伟.R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J].水资源水工程学报,2008,19(3):41-44.
[8]Chou C M.Wavelet-Based Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis of Complex Rainfall Time Series[J].Entropy,2011,13(1):241-253.
[9]侯瑞萍,张克斌,郝智如.造林密度对樟子松人工林枯落物和土壤持水能力的影响[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(4):624-630.
[10]Horel A E,Wennard R W,Baldwin K F.Ridge regression:some simulations[J].Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation,1975,4(2):105-123.
[11]Margriet N.Wavelet analysis of rainfall-runoff variability isolating climatic from anthropogenic patterns[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,1999,14(4):283-295.
[12]崔璐莹,徐琰,张磊.神木县降水长期变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(30):10586-10589.
[13]屈振江,鲁渊平,雷向杰.陕西近45a各季气温和降水异常时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(7):110-114.
[14]何艳芬,张喨.陕西省1980-2006年气候变化时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):59-63.
[15]冯彩琴,董婕.陕南地区近47年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8):122-126.
[2]Shi W L,Yu X Z,Liao W G,et al.Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation concentration in the Lancang River basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2013,495(12):197-207.
[3]Liang L Q,Li L J,Liu Q.Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,404(1-2):67-76.
[4]Zhu L K,Meng J J.Study on rainfall variations in the middle part of Inner Mongolia,China during the past 43 years[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2010,60(8):1661-1671.
[5]白爱娟,刘晓东.从气候标准的改变分析西北地区的气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2005,24(4):146-153.
[6]赵传成,王雁,丁永健,等.西北地区近50年气温及降水的时空变化[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):385-390.
[7]于延胜,陈兴伟.R/S和Mann-Kendall法综合分析水文时间序列未来的趋势特征[J].水资源水工程学报,2008,19(3):41-44.
[8]Chou C M.Wavelet-Based Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis of Complex Rainfall Time Series[J].Entropy,2011,13(1):241-253.
[9]侯瑞萍,张克斌,郝智如.造林密度对樟子松人工林枯落物和土壤持水能力的影响[J].生态环境学报,2015,24(4):624-630.
[10]Horel A E,Wennard R W,Baldwin K F.Ridge regression:some simulations[J].Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation,1975,4(2):105-123.
[11]Margriet N.Wavelet analysis of rainfall-runoff variability isolating climatic from anthropogenic patterns[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,1999,14(4):283-295.
[12]崔璐莹,徐琰,张磊.神木县降水长期变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(30):10586-10589.
[13]屈振江,鲁渊平,雷向杰.陕西近45a各季气温和降水异常时空特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(7):110-114.
[14]何艳芬,张喨.陕西省1980-2006年气候变化时空特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):59-63.
[15]冯彩琴,董婕.陕南地区近47年来气温、降水变化特征分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8):122-126.