气候转折期前后无锡站年际旱涝周期水文特性的对比分析
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摘要
在人类影响不断加剧的大背景下,通过对气候转折期前后无锡站年际降雨序列水文特性的对比分析,探索旱涝周期演化的自然规律。研究表明,无锡站年际降雨过程线的外观和内在特征,在1978年前后发生了突变,证实了笔者"气候成因不同特征不同"的猜想,也是气候转折期存在的有力证据;无锡站年际旱涝周期性特征是水文自然演化规律的一部分,其时间序列的一致性,并未因人类活动的影响而改变;分段法的提出打破了旱涝无规律的传统思维定势,国家气候中心对气候转折期的研究成果是其存在的理论基础;本次研究解决了无锡站年际旱涝周期性分析的难题,首次实现了旱涝趋势预测模拟,可推进太湖地区中长期水文预报和气候预测研究。
This paper studied the natural law of the drought and flood cycle by comparatively analyzing the hydrological characteristics of interannual rainfall series at the Wuxi Station before and after the climate transition period.The results show that the interannual rainfall process of the Wuxi Station indicates a mutation before and after 1978,which confirms the existence of the climate transition period.The interannual drought and flood periodicity of the Wuxi Station is a part of the natural evolution law of hydrology,of which the consistency of the time series is not changing due to the influence of human activity.The proposed segmentation method breaks the traditional thinking of drought and flood irregular.This study solved the interannual periodicity of drought analysis problem of the Wuxi Station,realized simulation forecast of the drought and flood trend which is a help for mid-and long-term hydrological forecasting and climate prediction in the Taihu Lake area.
This paper studied the natural law of the drought and flood cycle by comparatively analyzing the hydrological characteristics of interannual rainfall series at the Wuxi Station before and after the climate transition period.The results show that the interannual rainfall process of the Wuxi Station indicates a mutation before and after 1978,which confirms the existence of the climate transition period.The interannual drought and flood periodicity of the Wuxi Station is a part of the natural evolution law of hydrology,of which the consistency of the time series is not changing due to the influence of human activity.The proposed segmentation method breaks the traditional thinking of drought and flood irregular.This study solved the interannual periodicity of drought analysis problem of the Wuxi Station,realized simulation forecast of the drought and flood trend which is a help for mid-and long-term hydrological forecasting and climate prediction in the Taihu Lake area.
引文
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[4]葛朝霞,薛梅,宋颖玲.多因子逐步回归周期分析在中长期水文预报中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2009,37(3):255-257.(GE Chaoxia,XUE Mei,SONG Yingling.Application of multi-factor stepwise regression cycle analysis in medium and mid-long term hy drological forecast[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Science),2009,37(3):255-257.(in Chinese))
[5]张俊,程春田,林剑艺,等.中长期水文预报方法研究综述[J].水利水电科技进展,2010,30(S1):170-176.(ZHANG Jun,CHENG Chuntian,LIN Jianyi,et al.Review of research on methods for midlong term hydrological forecasting[J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2010,30(S1):170-176.(in Chinese))
[6]秦建国,张泉荣,洪国喜,等.太湖地区2011年春季严重干旱成因与预测[J].水资源保护,2012,28(6):29-36.(QIN Jianguo,ZHANG Quanrong,HONG Guoxi,et al.Cause of a severe drought in spring of 2011 in Taihu lake area and drought prediction[J].Water Resources Protection,2012,28(6):29-36.(in Chinese))
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[9]董前进,谢平.水文干旱研究进展[J].水文,2014,34(4):1-7.(DONG Qianjin,XIE Ping.Advances in hydrological drought research[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2014,34(4):1-7.(in Chinese))
[10]张俊,陈桂亚,杨文发.国内外干旱研究进展综述[J].人民长江,2011,42(10):65-69.(ZHANG Jun,CHEN Guiya,YANG Wenfa.Summary of advancement of drought study at home and abroad[J].Yangtze River,2011,42(10):65-69.(in Chinese))
[11]杨志勇,刘琳,曹永强,等.农业干旱灾害风险评价及预测预警研究进展[J].水利经济,2011,29(2):12-17.(YANG Zhiyong,LIU Lin,CAO Yongqiang,et al.Progress in the study of evaluation and forecast and early warning of agricultural drought disaster risk[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2011,29(2):12-17.(in Chinese))
[12]陈锡林,闻余华,黄利亚,等.里下河地区降雨量多时间尺度分析[J].水文,2008,28(3):83-85.(CHEN Xilin,WEN Yuhua,HUANG Liya,et al.Multiple-time scale analysis of precipitation in Lixiahe region[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2008,28(3):83-85.(in Chinese))
[13]朱颖洁,郭纯青,黄夏坤.气候变化和人类活动影响下西江梧州站降雨径流演变研究[J].水文,2010,30(2):50-55.(ZHU Yingjie,GUO Chunqing,HUANG Xiakun.Change of precipitation and runoff at Wuzhou station on Xijiang river under influence of climate changes and human activities[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30,30(2):50-55.(in Chinese))
[14]朱志伟,花振飞.华北地区冬季降水时空分布特征分析[J].水文,2010,30(4):84-87.(ZHU Zhiwei,HUA Zhenfei.Characteristics analysis of winter precipitation in north China[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(4):84-87.(in Chinese))
[15]张志悦,陈皓锐,熊孟琴.沧州南部地区1970年以来气候变化特征分析[J].水资源保护,2011,27(4):42-47.(ZHANG Zhiyue,CHEN Haorui,XIONG Mengqin.Analysis on characteristics of climate change in southern district of Cangzhou since 1970s[J].Water Resources Protection,2011,27(4):42-47.(in Chinese))
[16]杨富程,夏自强,黄峰,等.额尔齐斯河流域降水变化特征[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(4):432-437.(YANGFucheng,XIA Zi Qiang,HUANG Feng,et al.Variation characteristics of precipitation over Irtysh River basin[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Science),2012,40(4):432-437.(in Chinese))
[17]姚治君,姜丽光,吴珊珊,等.1956~2011年金沙江下游梯级水电开发区降水变化特征分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(4):289-296.(YAO Zhijun,JIANG Liguang,WU Shanshan,et al.Analysis of characteristics of precipitation variation in cascade hydropower development zone in lower reaches of Jinsha river during period from 1956 to 2011[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2014,42(4):289-296.(in Chinese))
[18]易淑珍,王钊.水文时间系列周期分析方法探讨[J].水文,2005,25(4):26-29.(YI Shuzhen,WANG Zhao.The study of the period method for hydrologic time series[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2005,25(4):26-29.(in Chinese))
[19]王文圣,丁晶,李跃清.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.(WANG Wensheng,DING Jing,LI Yueqing.Hydrology Wavelet Analysis[M].Beijing:Chemical Industry Press,2005.(in Chinese))
[20]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.水文时间序列分析方法研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(1):20-30.(SANG Yanfang,WANGZhonggen,LIU Changming.Research progress on the time series analysis methods in hydrology[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(1):20-30.(in Chinese))
[21]桑燕芳,王中根,刘昌明.小波分析方法在水文学研究中的应用现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(9):1413-1422.(SANGYanfang,WANG Zhonggen,LIU Changming.Applications of wavelet analysis to hydrology:Status and prospects[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(9):1413-1422.(in Chinese))
[22]桑燕芳,王栋,吴吉春,等.水文时间序列复杂特性的研究与定量表征[J].水文,2010,30(5):1-6.(SANG Yanfang,WANG Dong,WU Jichun,et al.Quantitative characterization of complicated characteristics of hydrologic series[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2010,30(5):1-6.(in Chinese))
[23]赵利红.水文时间序列周期分析方法的研究[D].南京:河海大学,2007.(ZHAO Lihong.Study on Analysis Method of Period of Hydrological Time Series[D].Nanjing:Hohai University,2007.(in Chinese))
[24]吴文富,陆安娜,费清培.太湖地区气候资源研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1992.(WU Wenfu,LU Anna,FEI Qinpei.Study on Climate Resources in Taihu Area[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,1992.(in Chinese))
[25]秦建国,朱玲,任小龙,等.无锡地区太湖春汛成因分析[J].江苏水利,2010,(7):19-21.(QIN Jianguo,ZHU Ling,REN Xiaolong,et a l.Analysis on cause of spring flood in Taihu area[J].Jiangsu Water Resources,2010,(7):19-21.(in Chinese))
[26]秦建国.对无锡地区湿润年景周期性变化的思考[J].人民长江,2010,41(Z1):50-55.(QIN Jianguo.Reason on wetness periodicity changes in Taihu area[J].Yangtze River,2010,41(Z1):50-55.(in Chinese))
[27]秦建国,洪国喜,朱骊,等.无锡地区降雨年际变化趋势分析与历史演变法的应用[A].中国水文科技新发展-2012中国水文学术讨论会论文集[C].南京:河海大学出版社,2012.(QIN Jianguo,HONG Guoxi,ZHU Li,et al.Trend analysis and historical evolution of precipitation in Wuxi[A].Proceedings of 2012 China Symposium on Hydrology[C].Nanjing:Hohai University Press,2012.(in Chinese))
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