无锡站年际降雨趋势、特征与预报分析
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摘要
针对近年极端灾害性气候频发的现状,对暖冬影响下无锡站降雨年际变化趋势、历史演变特征和近几年水文预报情况进行了分析。结果表明:在暖冬影响下,无锡站降雨年际间呈现出干旱—湿润周期性变化的特征,具有水文旋回的性质,在太湖地区有代表性,可作为该时段的降雨预报模型;该模型打破了年际降雨无规律的传统思维定式,与历史演变法相结合,能提高预报效率与精度;水文旋回的发现和降雨预报模型的建立,可推动水文气象长期预报与气候展望研究。
This paper analyzed the trend change,characteristics evolution and hydrological forecasting of the interannual rainfall at the Wuxi station under the influence of warm winters.The results show that under the influence of warm winters,there are drought-moist varying periods of the interannual rainfall at the Wuxi Station,with the characteristics of the hydrological cycle.With this characteristics as the representative in the Taihu Lake region,a rainfall prediction model can be developed,which will break the traditional thinking pattern that there is no regular for interannual rainfall,and improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy.
This paper analyzed the trend change,characteristics evolution and hydrological forecasting of the interannual rainfall at the Wuxi station under the influence of warm winters.The results show that under the influence of warm winters,there are drought-moist varying periods of the interannual rainfall at the Wuxi Station,with the characteristics of the hydrological cycle.With this characteristics as the representative in the Taihu Lake region,a rainfall prediction model can be developed,which will break the traditional thinking pattern that there is no regular for interannual rainfall,and improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy.
引文
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[2]杜富慧,郝振纯,陈新美,等.邯郸地区年降雨量统计特性[J].水资源保护,2009,25(6):16-20.(DU Fuhui,HAO Zhenchun,CHEN Xinmei,et al.Statistical characteristics of annual precipitation in Handanregion[J].Water Resources Protection,2009,25(6):16-20.(in Chi-nese))
[3]吴文富,陆安娜,费清培.太湖地区气候资源研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1992.(WU Wenfu,LU Anna,FEI Qinpei.Study on Climate Re-sources in Taihu Area[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,1992.(in Chinese))
[4]秦建国,朱玲,任小龙,等.无锡地区太湖春汛成因分析[J].江苏水利,2010,155(7):19-21.(QIN Jianguo,ZHU Ling,REN Xiaolong.Analy-sis on cause of spring flood in Taihu area[J].Jiangsu Water Re-sources,2010,155(7):19-21.(in Chinese))
[5]秦建国.对无锡地区湿润年景周期性变化的思考[J].人民长江(增刊),2010,41:50-55.(QIN Jianguo.Thinking on wetness periodicitychanges in Taihu area[J].Yangtze River,2010,41:50-55.(in Chi-nese))
[6]刘南威,杨士弘,刘洪杰,等.自然地理学(第二版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.(LIU Nanwei,YANG Shihong,LIU Hongjie,et al.Physi-cal Geography(second edition)[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.(inChinese))
[7]周恩济,林镜榆,范钟秀,等.气象学[M].南京:河海大学出版社,1989.(ZHOU Enji,LIN Jingyu,FAN Zhongxiu,et al.Meteorology[M].Nanjing:Hohai University Press,1989.(in Chinese))
[8]GB/T22482-2008,水文情报预报规范[S].(GB/T22482-2008,Standard for Hydrological Information and Hydrological Forecasting[S].(in Chinese))