广西冬季2次农业致灾暴雨天气湿位涡分析
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摘要
为了提高冬季暴雨预报准确率,及时为政府和人民提供准确的预报服务,减少农业生产的损失,笔者利用自动站雨量资料以及NECP FNL分析资料,分别对广西冬季2次农业致灾暴雨2016年1月27—28日和2013年12月13—16日进行实况分析、天气学分析和湿位涡诊断分析。结果表明:暴雨发生在MPV1正值区前侧的负值区或0值附近和MPV2负值中心南侧的低值区内。MPV1和MPV2对2类降水落区均具有一定的指示意义,但MPV1中心不能决定锋面暴雨降水落区,却对降水具有潜势预报,MPV2对强降水的发生有一定的提前预报。MPV等值线密集区,冷暖空气交汇强烈有利于水汽辐合、垂直涡度发展易产生暴雨。
To improve the accuracy of winter rainstorm forecasting, timely provide weather service for thegovernment and people, and reduce the loss of agricultural production, the authors did real-time analysis,synoptic analysis, diagnosis analysis of moist potential vorticity(MPV) of 2 winter rainstorms resulting inagricultural disasters occurred on January 27 to 28, 2016 and December 13 to 16, 2013 in Guangxi, by usingthe precipitation data from automatic weather stations and NECP FNL analysis data. The results showed that:the rainstorm occurred in negative or near the zero line before the positive side of MPV1 and the low zone of thesouth of MPV2 negative center; MPV1 and MPV2 had some indicating significance for the 2 types ofprecipitation areas, MPV1 center could not decide the frontal rainstorm precipitation fall area, but had theforecast potentiality for precipitation, MPV2 could forecast the occurrence of heavy rain in advance. MPV isoline-intensive area, the meet of cold and warm air strongly is beneficial to moisture convergence, and thedevelopment of vertical vorticity is easy to produce rainstorm.
To improve the accuracy of winter rainstorm forecasting, timely provide weather service for thegovernment and people, and reduce the loss of agricultural production, the authors did real-time analysis,synoptic analysis, diagnosis analysis of moist potential vorticity(MPV) of 2 winter rainstorms resulting inagricultural disasters occurred on January 27 to 28, 2016 and December 13 to 16, 2013 in Guangxi, by usingthe precipitation data from automatic weather stations and NECP FNL analysis data. The results showed that:the rainstorm occurred in negative or near the zero line before the positive side of MPV1 and the low zone of thesouth of MPV2 negative center; MPV1 and MPV2 had some indicating significance for the 2 types ofprecipitation areas, MPV1 center could not decide the frontal rainstorm precipitation fall area, but had theforecast potentiality for precipitation, MPV2 could forecast the occurrence of heavy rain in advance. MPV isoline-intensive area, the meet of cold and warm air strongly is beneficial to moisture convergence, and thedevelopment of vertical vorticity is easy to produce rainstorm.
引文
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[3]黄金霞,陈楷荣,肖天贵,等.广东“080613”暴雨过程的湿位涡诊断分析[J].广东气象,2010,32(1):25-28.
[4]徐碧裕,叶朗明,胡丽华.台风“彩虹”过程的湿位涡分析[J].广东气象,2016,38(4):7-11.
[5]叶爱芬,李江南,徐永辉,等.珠三角一次暖区强降水过程湿位涡的演变特征[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(2):237-243.
[6]李静楠,潘晓滨,臧增亮,等.一次华北暴雨过程的湿位涡诊断分析[J].暴雨灾害,2016,35(2):158-165.
[7]吴启树,连东英,刘爱鸣,等.湿位涡子项在华南前汛期两类暴雨中的诊断分析[J].气象科学,2014,34(3):317-324.
[8]白涛,李崇银,王铁,等.干侵入对陕西“2008.07.21”暴雨过程的影响分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(2):345-356.
[9]林确略,寿绍文,杨华,等.基于数值模拟对一次广西前汛期回流暴雨形成机制的分析[J].气象,2015,41(7):852-862.
[10]寿绍文.位涡理论及其应用[J].气象,2010,36(3):9-18.
[11]李娜,冉令坤,周玉淑,等.北京“7.21”暴雨过程中变形场引起的锋生与倾斜涡度发展诊断分析[J].气象学报,2013,71(4):593-605.
[12]吴国雄,蔡雅萍,唐晓菁,等.湿位涡和倾斜涡度发展[J].气象学报,1995,53(4):387-404.
[13]王丛梅,丁治英,张金艳,等.西北涡暴雨的湿位涡诊断分析[J].气象,2005,31(11):28-33.
[14]查书瑶,伊兰,赵平.冬季华南准静止锋的结构和类型特征研究[J].大气科学,2013,39(3):513-525.
[15]张芳华,陈涛,杨舒楠,等.一次冬季暴雨过程中的锋生和条件对称不稳定分析[J].气象,2014,40(9):1048-1057.
[16]罗碧瑜,刘宝升,黎非凡.梅州市两次冬季暴雨过程分析[J].广东水利水电,2014(7):83-86.
[17]李文奕,杨粤红,李永兵,等.一次冬季持续性暴雨过程的诊断分析[J].广东气象,2013,35(5):14-18.
[18]苏百兴,段朝霞,梁健.广东省隆冬季节暴雨及个例分析[J].广东气象,2001(4):4-6.
[19]黄翠银.2010年1月广西冬季暴雨水汽特征分析[J].气象研究与应用,2011,32(4):20-22,48.
[20]熊英,陈琼,吴瑕.广东前汛期两次暴雨过程的对比分析[J].广东气象,2015,37(4):10-14.