2016年“520特大暴雨”的MCS触发机制分析及其对玉林农业影响
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摘要
为了探讨广西玉林2016年5月20日出现的特大暴雨,导致幼穗期的早稻严重失收、菜秧烂根、荔枝龙眼的幼果发育迟缓的成因。利用NCEP 1°×1°全球客观分析资料、常规气象资料,以及FY2E卫星云图的TBB反演和多普勒雷达数据,对此特大暴雨进行中尺度系统(MCS)及动力机制分析。结果表明:(1)高纬度环流呈"两槽一脊",不断分裂东移的高空槽和副热带高压西北侧暖湿气流的配合,为玉林特大暴雨中MCS产生提供有利的环流背景;(2)高层强辐散与低层强辐合的耦合,有抽吸作用,利于MCS的发展,暴雨区出现在低空急流入口的左侧玉林一带;(3)玉林上空有明显的水汽辐合,充足的水汽条件使MCS得以维持;(4)MCS出现在对流云团中心和TBB梯度较大区域。以上原因造成玉林大范围特大暴雨天气,导致幼穗期的早稻严重失收、农业受灾重。拟总结经验,以期今后遇到类似的天气形势时,可以更好把握天气,提早预报,为防灾减灾提供参考依据。
The paper aims to explore the premature rice crop failure, vegetable seedling rotted root, and thegrowth retardation of litchi and longan during young spike period caused by the torrential rain in Yulin on May 20, 2016. Based on NCEP 1°×1° global objective analysis data, conventional meteorological data, TBB fromFY2E infrared cloud and Doppler radar data, the authors analyzed the heavy rainstorm mesoscale system(MCS)and dynamic mechanism. The results showed that:(1) heavy rainstorm occurred in the"two slots and oneridge"under the large circulation background, the combination of the eastward flow and the warm and humidair flow in the northwest side of the subtropical high pressure provided a favorable circulation background forMCS;(2) the coupling of the high-level strong divergence and the low-level convergence was favorable to thevertical uplift and the occurrence of the MCS; the rainstorm occurred at the right side of the low-level jetentrance;(3) there was a clear convergence of water vapor over Yulin, providing sufficient water vapor, whichallowed the MCS to maintain;(4) MCS occurred at the center of the convective cloud, i.e. the area with largergradient of TBB. The above reasons for Yulin large-scale heavy rain weather led to heavy loss of early rice cropand other heavy agricultural disasters. This article intends to summarize the experience to better grasp thebackground of similar weather pattern and offer a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.
The paper aims to explore the premature rice crop failure, vegetable seedling rotted root, and thegrowth retardation of litchi and longan during young spike period caused by the torrential rain in Yulin on May 20, 2016. Based on NCEP 1°×1° global objective analysis data, conventional meteorological data, TBB fromFY2E infrared cloud and Doppler radar data, the authors analyzed the heavy rainstorm mesoscale system(MCS)and dynamic mechanism. The results showed that:(1) heavy rainstorm occurred in the"two slots and oneridge"under the large circulation background, the combination of the eastward flow and the warm and humidair flow in the northwest side of the subtropical high pressure provided a favorable circulation background forMCS;(2) the coupling of the high-level strong divergence and the low-level convergence was favorable to thevertical uplift and the occurrence of the MCS; the rainstorm occurred at the right side of the low-level jetentrance;(3) there was a clear convergence of water vapor over Yulin, providing sufficient water vapor, whichallowed the MCS to maintain;(4) MCS occurred at the center of the convective cloud, i.e. the area with largergradient of TBB. The above reasons for Yulin large-scale heavy rain weather led to heavy loss of early rice cropand other heavy agricultural disasters. This article intends to summarize the experience to better grasp thebackground of similar weather pattern and offer a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.
引文
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[13]陈静静,叶成志,陈红专,等.“10·6”湖南大暴雨过程MCS的环境流场特征及动力分析[J].暴雨灾害,2011,04:313-320.
[14]丁一汇.暴雨和中尺度气象学问题[J].气象学报,1994,52(3):274-284.
[15]刘尉,罗晓玲,陈慧华,等.近52年广东开汛期特征及与前汛期降水的关系分析[J].气象,2014,40(6):706-714.
[16]曾波,谌芸,李泽椿.中国中东部地区夏季中尺度对流系统发生前环境场特征[J].高原气象,2016,35(2):460-468.
[17]刘国忠,丁治英,贾显锋,等.影响华南地区西南低涡及致洪低涡活动的统计研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):45-50.
[18]王文波,王旭,杨可栋,等.2011年7月2-3日山东大范围暴雨过程的诊断分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(26):172-177.
[19]王秀明,周小刚,俞小鼎.雷暴大风环境特征及其对风暴结构影响的对比研究[J].气象学报,2013,71(5):839-852.
[20]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:90-180.
[2]林爱兰,李春晖,郑彬,等.广东前汛期持续性暴雨的变化特征及其环流形势[J].气象学报,2013,71(4):628-642.
[3]姚小英,王劲松,王莺,等.广东近40年气候变化特征及对农业的影响[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(26):222-228
[4]丁一汇.高等天气学[M].北京:气象出版社,2005:316.
[5]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京气象出版社,2000:383-399.
[6]李向红,庞传伟,梁维亮,等.孟加拉湾旺盛对流作为广西连续暴雨的前兆信号特征分析[J].气象,2015,41(11):1383-1389.
[7]杨舒楠,路屹雄,于超.一次梅雨锋暴雨的中尺度对流系统及低层风场影响分析[J].气象,2017,43(1):21-33.
[8]刘佳颖,魏建苏,姚丽娜,等.一次MCS过程的特征分析[J].气象科学,2013,33(1):89-94.
[9]陈伟斌,农孟松,赵金彪,等.广西2次雷暴大风天气过程的成因及异同分析[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(15):231-239.
[10]陶诗言.中国之暴雨[M].北京:科学出版社,1980:1-71.
[11]刘蕾,李宜爽,张凌云,等.广西汛期2次暖区暴雨成因的对比分析[J].中国农学通报,2016,32(5):136-143.
[12]郑媛媛,张小玲,朱红芳,等.2007年7月8日特大暴雨过程的中尺度特征[J].气象,2009,35(2):3-7.
[13]陈静静,叶成志,陈红专,等.“10·6”湖南大暴雨过程MCS的环境流场特征及动力分析[J].暴雨灾害,2011,04:313-320.
[14]丁一汇.暴雨和中尺度气象学问题[J].气象学报,1994,52(3):274-284.
[15]刘尉,罗晓玲,陈慧华,等.近52年广东开汛期特征及与前汛期降水的关系分析[J].气象,2014,40(6):706-714.
[16]曾波,谌芸,李泽椿.中国中东部地区夏季中尺度对流系统发生前环境场特征[J].高原气象,2016,35(2):460-468.
[17]刘国忠,丁治英,贾显锋,等.影响华南地区西南低涡及致洪低涡活动的统计研究[J].气象,2007,33(1):45-50.
[18]王文波,王旭,杨可栋,等.2011年7月2-3日山东大范围暴雨过程的诊断分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(26):172-177.
[19]王秀明,周小刚,俞小鼎.雷暴大风环境特征及其对风暴结构影响的对比研究[J].气象学报,2013,71(5):839-852.
[20]俞小鼎,姚秀萍,熊廷南,等.多普勒天气雷达原理与业务应用[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:90-180.