美国四州能源概况分析与能源契约的建立
|
摘要
针对美国与墨西哥接壤的4个州——加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州、新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州自1960—2009年能源的相关数据,根据能源分类和评价指标体系设计原则,并结合相关性分析方法,筛选出关键变量,建立综合评价模型,分析4个州的能源概况,特别是在清洁可再生能源使用方面的差异,认为2009年加利福尼亚州的能源状况最好.建立模型预测了在现有政策下4个州2025年和2050年的能源概况,并以此为依据制定了可再生能源的使用目标和为实现目标所采取的能源契约.最后提出了一些合理化建议.
According to the data of energy from 1960 to 2009 of California,Arizona,New Mexico,and Texas along the U.S.border with Mexico,the key variables are selected using the method of correlation analysis based on the energy principle of classification and evaluation index system design.Furthermore,the comprehensive evaluation model is established in order to analyze the general situation of energy of the four states,especially in the field of clean and renewable energy use.The energy situation of California is considered to be the best of the four states in 2009.The prediction model is establised to describe the energy profiles of the four states in 2025 and 2050 under the existing policies.According to the results,the clean and renewable energy usage targets and energy contracts adopted to achieve the goals are proposed.Finally,some reasonable suggestions are put forward.
According to the data of energy from 1960 to 2009 of California,Arizona,New Mexico,and Texas along the U.S.border with Mexico,the key variables are selected using the method of correlation analysis based on the energy principle of classification and evaluation index system design.Furthermore,the comprehensive evaluation model is established in order to analyze the general situation of energy of the four states,especially in the field of clean and renewable energy use.The energy situation of California is considered to be the best of the four states in 2009.The prediction model is establised to describe the energy profiles of the four states in 2025 and 2050 under the existing policies.According to the results,the clean and renewable energy usage targets and energy contracts adopted to achieve the goals are proposed.Finally,some reasonable suggestions are put forward.
引文
[1]史立山.中国能源现状分析和可再生能源发展规划[J].可再生能源,2004(5):17-21.
[2]丁占文,田立新,杨宏林.不可再生与可再生能源开发的博弈均衡分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,38(22):33-39.
[3]U.S.Energy Information Administration.State energy data system(SEDS)complete dataset through 2009(All 50states)[EB/OL].[2018-11-22].https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/state-energy-data-system-seds-complete-datasetthrough-2009#sec-dates.
[4]蒋国旗,李兴山.中国综合能源市场体系建设研究[D].北京:中共中央党校,2013.
[5]Box G E P,Jenkins G M,Reinsel G C.Time series analysis:Forecasting and control[M].San Francisco:Holden Day Press,1976.
[2]丁占文,田立新,杨宏林.不可再生与可再生能源开发的博弈均衡分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,38(22):33-39.
[3]U.S.Energy Information Administration.State energy data system(SEDS)complete dataset through 2009(All 50states)[EB/OL].[2018-11-22].https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/state-energy-data-system-seds-complete-datasetthrough-2009#sec-dates.
[4]蒋国旗,李兴山.中国综合能源市场体系建设研究[D].北京:中共中央党校,2013.
[5]Box G E P,Jenkins G M,Reinsel G C.Time series analysis:Forecasting and control[M].San Francisco:Holden Day Press,1976.