双季早晚稻不同发育阶段日数对温度变化的敏感性比较
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摘要
基于1981-2010年长江中下游地区38个农业气象观测站双季早、晚稻发育期及同期逐日气象数据,结合水稻特性将发育期划分为出苗-移栽、移栽-返青、返青-孕穗、孕穗-成熟4个主要发育阶段,比较双季早、晚稻不同发育阶段日数对温度变化的相对敏感性,以探究不同作物、不同发育期对气候变化响应的差异。结果表明:水稻各发育阶段日数随温度升高基本呈减少趋势,但相对敏感性差异较大。早稻返青-孕穗期日数对温度变化最敏感,相对敏感性平均为-0.094个点·℃~(-1)(P<0.05),晚稻孕穗-成熟期日数对温度变化最不敏感,相对敏感性平均为-0.045个点·℃~(-1)(P<0.05)。相同发育阶段内,返青前晚稻对温度变化更敏感,返青后早稻更敏感。除移栽-返青期外,两种作物其它营养生长阶段敏感性均强于生殖生长。相对敏感性与阶段日数变异系数呈负相关关系,日数波动越大,阶段日数随温度升高而减少越明显,尤以早稻返青-孕穗期相关系数达-0.761(P<0.001)。
In order to explore responses of different crops' different development stages to climate change,the relative sensitivities of growth duration to temperature of early and late rice in 38 agrometeorological observation stations during 1981-2010 in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain were calculated.Both early and late rice's growth stages were divided into four stages,i.e.,emergence to transplanting(E-T),transplanting to reviving(T-R),reviving to booting(R-B) and booting to mature(B-M).Results showed that growth duration decreased with temperature increasing,but its relative sensitivity varied much between all the four stages.The R-B period of early rice was the most sensible to temperature with average relative sensitivity value of-0.094 point·℃~(-1)(P<0.05).The B-M period was less sensible than others,with average value of -0.045 point·℃~(-1)(P<0.05).For the same stage,duration of late rice was more sensible to temperature than early rice before reviving,but was less sensible after reviving.For the two crops,the vegetative growth was more sensible than reproductive growth except T-R period.Further analysis showed that the relative sensitivity was negatively correlated with variation coefficient of duration,indicating in such stations where growth duration varied substantially,the duration would decreased more sharply under warmer condition,especially in the R-B period of early rice,whose correlation coefficient was -0.761(P<0.001).
In order to explore responses of different crops' different development stages to climate change,the relative sensitivities of growth duration to temperature of early and late rice in 38 agrometeorological observation stations during 1981-2010 in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain were calculated.Both early and late rice's growth stages were divided into four stages,i.e.,emergence to transplanting(E-T),transplanting to reviving(T-R),reviving to booting(R-B) and booting to mature(B-M).Results showed that growth duration decreased with temperature increasing,but its relative sensitivity varied much between all the four stages.The R-B period of early rice was the most sensible to temperature with average relative sensitivity value of-0.094 point·℃~(-1)(P<0.05).The B-M period was less sensible than others,with average value of -0.045 point·℃~(-1)(P<0.05).For the same stage,duration of late rice was more sensible to temperature than early rice before reviving,but was less sensible after reviving.For the two crops,the vegetative growth was more sensible than reproductive growth except T-R period.Further analysis showed that the relative sensitivity was negatively correlated with variation coefficient of duration,indicating in such stations where growth duration varied substantially,the duration would decreased more sharply under warmer condition,especially in the R-B period of early rice,whose correlation coefficient was -0.761(P<0.001).
引文
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[21]马伟,霍治国,姬静华,等.壳聚糖和水杨酸混配液对移栽返青期水稻幼苗抗寒性影响及机理[J].中国稻米,2015,21(4):150-154.Ma W,Huo Z G,Ji J H,et al.Cold resistance effect and mechanism of mixed carboxymethl chitosan and salicylic acid on rice seedlings during transplanting and rehabilitation period[J].China Rice,2015,21(4):150-154.(in Chinese)
[22]高苹,徐敏,徐经纬,等.基于大尺度海温因子的江苏省水稻适宜移栽期预报模型研究[J].气象,2015,41(12):1538-1544.Gao P,Xu M,Xu J W,et al.Study of the prediction model of suitable transplanting date of rice in Jiangsu based on largescale factors of sea surface temperature[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(12):1538-1544.(in Chinese)
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[27]Liu L L,Wang E L,Zhu Y,et al.Contrasting effects of warming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivity in China[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2012,149:20-29.
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[2]胡琦,潘学标,邵长秀,等.1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):119-127.Hu Q,Pan X B,Shao C X,et al.Distribution and variation of China agricultural heat resources in 1961-2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(2):119-127.(in Chinese)
[3]谭凯炎,邬定荣,赵花荣.气候变暖背景下华北平原冬小麦生育期温度条件变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(6):333-341.Tan K Y,Wu D R,Zhao H R.Trend analysis of temperature conditions over different growth periods of winter wheat under climate warming in North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(6):333-341.(in Chinese)
[4]Zhang T Y,Li T,Yang X G,et al.Model biases in rice phenology under warmer climates[J].Scientific Reports,2016,(6):1-9.
[5]李正国,杨鹏,唐华俊,等.气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物典型物候期变化趋势分析[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(20):4180-4189.Li Z G,Yang P,Tang H J,et al.Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2011,44(20):4180-4189.(in Chinese)
[6]薛昌颖,刘荣花,吴骞.气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(3):353-357.Xue C Y,Liu R H,Wu Q.Effect of climate warming on rice growing stages in Xinyang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(3):353-357.(in Chinese)
[7]葛道阔,金之庆.气候及其变率变化对长江中下游稻区水稻生产的影响[J].中国水稻科学,2009,23(1):57-64.Ge D K,Jin Z Q.Impacts of climate change and its variability on rice production in the middle and lower valley of the Yangtze River,China[J].Chinese Journal of Rice Science,2009,23(1):57-64.(in Chinese)
[8]丁丽佳,谢松元.气候变暖对潮州水稻主要生育期的影响和对策[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(S1):97-102.Ding L J,Xie S Y.Impacts and countermeasures of climate warming on the main growth periods of rice in Chaozhou[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(Supp1):97-102.(in Chinese)
[9]董文军,邓艾兴,张彬,等.开放式昼夜不同增温对单季稻影响的试验研究[J].生态学报,2011,31(8):2169-2177.Dong W J,Deng A X,Zhang B,et al.An experimental study on the effects of different diurnal warming regimes on single cropping rice with free air temperature increased(FATI)facility[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2011,31(8):2169-2177.(in Chinese)
[10]肖登攀,陶福禄,沈彦俊,等.华北平原冬小麦对过去30年气候变化响应的敏感性研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2014,22(4):430-438.Xiao D P,Tao F L,Shen Y J,et al.Sensitivity of response of winter wheat to climate change in the North China Plain in the last three decades[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2014,22(4):430-438.(in Chinese)
[11]蒋菊芳,王鹤龄,魏育国,等.河西走廊东部不同类型植物物候对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(4):543-549.Jiang J F,Wang H L,Wei Y G,et al.Response of different type plants’phenology to climate change in east of Hexi Corridor[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(4):543-549.(in Chinese)
[12]孟林,刘新建,邬定荣,等.华北平原夏玉米主要生育期对气候变化的响应[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(4):375-382.Meng L,Liu X J,Wu D R,et al.Responses of summer maize main phenology to climate change in the North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(4):375-382.(in Chinese)
[13]高静,邬定荣,王培娟,等.华北平原冬小麦主要发育阶段日数对温度变化的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(4):431-436.Gao J,Wu D R,Wang P J,et al.Relative sensitivity of main growth durations to temperature for winter wheat in the North China Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(4):431-436.(in Chinese)
[14]李勇,杨晓光,叶清,等.全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响Ⅸ:长江中下游地区单双季稻高低温灾害风险及其产量影响[J].中国农业科学,2013,46(19):3997-4006.Li Y,Yang X G,Ye Q,et al.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in ChinaⅨ:the risk of high and low temperature disasters for single and double rice and its impacts on rice yield in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2013,46(19):3997-4006.(in Chinese)
[15]王春乙,姚蓬娟,张继权,等.长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害综合风险评价[J].中国农业科学,2016,49(13):2469-2483.Wang C Y,Yao P J,Zhang J Q,et al.Risk assessment of cold and hot damages for double-cropping early rice in LowerMiddle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2016,49(13):2469-2483.(in Chinese)
[16]程式华,李建.现代中国水稻[M].北京:金盾出版社,2007:116-240.Cheng S H,Li J.Modern Chinese rice[M].Beijing:Jindun Press,2007:116-240.(in Chinese)
[17]黄亮,谢小萍,杨沈斌,等.SRES Al B情景下气候变化对长江中下游稻区单双季稻生产的影响[J].江苏农业科学,2013,41(9):36-41.Huang L,Xie X P,Yang S B,et al.Impacts of climate change on single and double cropping rice production in Lower-Middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin under SRES Al B scenario[J].Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(9):36-41.(in Chinese)
[18]Singh H,Singh K N.Transplating shock in temperate rice and its influence on rooting characteristics and grain yield[J].Indian J.Agric.Res.,2014,48(5):389-393.
[19]Zhang Y P,Xiang J,Chen H Z,et al.Physiological characterization of green turning of rice seedlings at different temperatures[J].Agricultural Science and Technology,2015,16(7):1390-1394.
[20]陈书涛,王让会,许遐祯,等.气温及降水变化对江苏省典型农业区冬小麦、水稻生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):235-239.Chen S T,Wang R H,Xu X Z,et al.Impacts of variations in air temperature and precipitation on the growth stages of winter wheat and rice in typical agricultural zones of Jiangsu province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(2):235-239.(in Chinese)
[21]马伟,霍治国,姬静华,等.壳聚糖和水杨酸混配液对移栽返青期水稻幼苗抗寒性影响及机理[J].中国稻米,2015,21(4):150-154.Ma W,Huo Z G,Ji J H,et al.Cold resistance effect and mechanism of mixed carboxymethl chitosan and salicylic acid on rice seedlings during transplanting and rehabilitation period[J].China Rice,2015,21(4):150-154.(in Chinese)
[22]高苹,徐敏,徐经纬,等.基于大尺度海温因子的江苏省水稻适宜移栽期预报模型研究[J].气象,2015,41(12):1538-1544.Gao P,Xu M,Xu J W,et al.Study of the prediction model of suitable transplanting date of rice in Jiangsu based on largescale factors of sea surface temperature[J].Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(12):1538-1544.(in Chinese)
[23]杨沈斌,申双和,赵小艳,等.气候变化对长江中下游稻区水稻产量的影响[J].作物学报,2010,36(9):1519-1528.Yang S B,Shen S H,Zhao X Y,et al.Impacts of climate changes on rice production in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,2010,36(9):1519-1528.(in Chinese)
[24]Lu P L,Yu Q,Wang E L,et al.Effects of climatic variation and warming on rice development across South China[J].Climate Research,2008,36:79-88.
[25]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.Guo J P.Advances in impacts of climate change on agricultural production in China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Sciences,2015,26(1):1-11.(in Chinese)
[26]江敏,金之庆,石春林,等.福建省基于自适应调整的水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应[J].作物学报,2012,38(12):2246-2257.Jiang M,Jin Z Q,Shi C L,et al.Response of rice production based on self-adaption to climate change in Fujian province[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,2012,38(12):2246-2257.(in Chinese)
[27]Liu L L,Wang E L,Zhu Y,et al.Contrasting effects of warming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivity in China[J].Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2012,149:20-29.
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