城镇家庭收入分布变动对其食物消费的影响——兼论与静态模拟结果的比较
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摘要
了解不同方案设定下收入分布变化对食物消费结构的变动及其前景有着重要的现实意义。采用广东省城镇住户调查数据,运用两阶段需求分析法(Engel-QUAIDS),动态模拟城镇家庭收入分布变化对其食物消费的影响,并与静态的模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:1)在不同收入组的城镇家庭中,不同种类食物的消费水平和消费结构存在显著差异。2)保持收入分布格局不变、缩小或是拉大收入差距的情景方案都会明显增加城镇家庭各类食物消费量;不同方案中增长幅度有显著差异,缩小收入差距的方案模拟最具明显优势,会促进各类食物消费总量的快速增长,但乳品消费的增幅总为最低。3)相较于动态收入分布的模拟结果,传统的静态收入模拟倾向于低估蛋类、乳品和蔬果类消费总量;而在对粮食、油脂类和肉类消费量的估计中,缩小收入差距的静态模拟有着较为明显的高估倾向。因此,在对未来食物消费进行预测时,需要充分考虑收入分布的动态变化这一因素。
The changes of income distribution under different schemes have important practical significance to the changes of the structure of food consumption. Based on urban household survey data in Guangdong Province, this paper adopts a two-stage demand analysis(Engel-QUAIDS) model to simulate the dynamic impacts of household income distribution on food consumption and makes a contrast study with the result in static simulation. Empirical results show that: 1) the consumption levels and structures of food in urban households with different incomes are significantly different; 2) all of the scenarios maintain the same income distribution pattern and narrow or wide income gaps have considerable impacts on specified food consumption with different growth rates. The simulation of income gap reduction has the most obvious advantage, which will promote the rapid growth of total food consumption. But the increase of dairy consumption is the lowest; and 3) compared with the simulation results of dynamic income distribution, the traditional static income simulation trends to underestimate the total consumptions of eggs, dairy products, vegetables and fruits. In the estimation of grain, oil and meat consumption, the static simulation of income gap reduction has a tendency of overestimation. Therefore, the dynamic change of income distribution should be fully considered in the prediction of food demand projections.
The changes of income distribution under different schemes have important practical significance to the changes of the structure of food consumption. Based on urban household survey data in Guangdong Province, this paper adopts a two-stage demand analysis(Engel-QUAIDS) model to simulate the dynamic impacts of household income distribution on food consumption and makes a contrast study with the result in static simulation. Empirical results show that: 1) the consumption levels and structures of food in urban households with different incomes are significantly different; 2) all of the scenarios maintain the same income distribution pattern and narrow or wide income gaps have considerable impacts on specified food consumption with different growth rates. The simulation of income gap reduction has the most obvious advantage, which will promote the rapid growth of total food consumption. But the increase of dairy consumption is the lowest; and 3) compared with the simulation results of dynamic income distribution, the traditional static income simulation trends to underestimate the total consumptions of eggs, dairy products, vegetables and fruits. In the estimation of grain, oil and meat consumption, the static simulation of income gap reduction has a tendency of overestimation. Therefore, the dynamic change of income distribution should be fully considered in the prediction of food demand projections.
引文
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[21]Dey M M.Analysis of demand for fish in Bangladesh[J].Aquaculture Economics and Management,2000,4(1/2):65-83.
[22]Garcia Y T,Dey M M,Nabarez S M.Demand for fish in the Philippines:A disaggregated analysis[J].Aquaculture Economics and Management,2005,9(1/2):141-168.
[23]Dey M M,Alam M F,Paraguas F J.A multistage budgeting approach to the analysis of demand for fish:An application to inland areas of Bangladesh[J].Marine Resource Economics,2011,26(1):35-58.
[24]迪顿,米尔鲍尔.经济学与消费者行为[M].龚志民,宋旺,解烜,等译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.Deaton A,Muellbauer J.Economics and Consumer Behavior[M].Cambridge University Press,1980.
[25]吴蓓蓓,陈永福,于法稳.基于收入分层QUAIDS模型的广东省城镇居民家庭食品消费行为分析[J].中国农村观察,2012(4):59-69.Wu B B,Chen Y F,Yu F W.Food consumption behavior of urban residents in Guangdong Province-Based on a QUAIDS approach among different income groups[J].China Rural Survey,2012(4):59-69.
[26]吕开宇,张雪梅,邢郦.不同收入等级农村居民粮食消费的演变--基于住户收入分布函数的模拟分析[J].农业经济问题,2012(6):44-48,111.LüK Y,Zhang X M,Xing L.Evolution of grain consumption among groups with different income level:Based on stimulation of household income distribution in rural China[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2012(6):44-48,111.
[27]刘华,钟甫宁.食物消费与需求弹性--基于城镇居民微观数据的实证研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,9(3):36-43.Liu H,Zhong F N.Food consumption and demand elasticity:Evidence from household survey data[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2009,9(3):36-43.
[28]郑志浩,高颖,赵殷钰.收入增长对城镇居民食物消费模式的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2016,15(1):263-288.Zheng Z H,Gao Y,Zhao Y Y.Impact of income growth on food consumption patterns in urban China[J].China Economic Quarterly,2016,15(1):263-288.
[29]Dong F.The outlook for Asian dairy markets:The role of demographics,incomes,and prices[J].Food Policy,2006,31(3):260-271.
[30]Abullahi M K,Kyiogwom U B,Tanko L,et al.Consumption preferences for dairy products in an urban setting:A study of Sokoto metropolis[J].International Journal of Innovative Research&Development,2014,11(3):308-314.
[31]Fuller F,Huang J K,Ma H Y,et al.Got milk?The rapid rise of China’s dairy sector and its future prospects[J].Food Policy,2006,31(3):201-215.
[2]You J,Imai K S,Gaiha R.Declining nutrient intake in a growing China:Does household heterogeneity matter?[J].World Development,2016,77:171-191.
[3]李政,杨思莹.创业能否缩小收入分配差距?--基于省级面板数据的分析[J].经济社会体制比较,2017,191(3):21-32.Li Z,Yang S Y.Could entrepreneurship narrow the distribution gap?An analysis based on the provincial panel data[J].Comparative Economic&Social Systems,2017,191(3):21-32.
[4]Meng X,Gong X,Wang Y.Impact of income growth and economic reform on nutrition availability in urban China:1986-2000[J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,2009,57(2):261-295.
[5]Tian X,Yu X H.The demand for nutrients in China[J].Frontiers of Economics in China,2013,8(2):186-206.
[6]Wang J M,Zhou Z Y,Cox R J.Animal product consumption trends in China[J].Australasian Agribusiness Review,2005,13:87-107.
[7]Bai J F,Wahl T L,McCluskey J J.Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao,China[J].Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics,2008,52(2):133-147.
[8]Ngui D,Mutua J,Osiolo H,et al.Household energy demand in Kenya:An application of the linear approximate almost ideal demand system(LA-AIDS)[J].Energy Policy,2011,39:7084-7094.
[9]郑志浩,赵殷钰.收入分布变化对中国城镇居民家庭在外食物消费的影响[J].中国农村经济,2012(7):40-50.Zheng Z H,Zhao Y Y.Influence of income distribution on faraway home food consumption of urban households in China[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2012(7):40-50.
[10]Michael F,Liu N.The social context of the Chinese food system:An ethnographic study of the Beijing seafood market[J].Sustainability,2016,8(3):244-260.
[11]Pinstrup-Andersen P,Caicedo E.The potential impact of changes in income distribution on food demand and human nutrition[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1978,60(3):402-415.
[12]Zheng Z H,Henneberry S R.The impact of changes in income distribution on current and future food demand in urban China[J].Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,2010,35(1):51-71.
[13]李世聪,闻剑,邓小玲,等.广东省城市居民食物和营养素摄入现状及变化趋势[J].中国公共卫生,2014,30(9):1109-1112.Li S C,Wen J,Deng X L,et al.The status and change trend of food consumption and nutrients intake in urban population of Guangdong Province[J].Chinese Public Health,2014,30(9):1109-1112.
[14]Banks J,Blundell R,Lewbel A.Quadratic engel curves and consumer demand[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79(4):527-539.
[15]马训舟,张世秋,穆泉.二次近似完美需求体系的应用研究--以北京市城市居民用水需求弹性分析为例[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(3):483-490.Ma X Z,Zhang S Q,Mu Q.Application of quadratic almost ideal demand system in analysis of demand elasticity of household water demand of Beijing[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2012,48(3):483-490.
[16]Han X R,Chen Y F.Food consumption of outgoing rural migrant workers in urban area of China:A QUAIDS approach[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,2016,8(2):230-249.
[17]Wu B B,Chen Y F.A multistage budgeting approach to the analysis of dairy demand in urban China[J].British Food Journal,2017,119(12):2804-2821.
[18]Lambert R,Larue B,Yelou C,et al.Fish and meat demand in Cannada:Regional differences and weak separability[J].Agribusiness,2006,22(2):175-199.
[19]Obayelu A E,Okoruwa V O,Ajani I Y.Cross-sectional analysis of food demand in the north central,Nigeria[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,2009,1(2):173-193.
[20]Silver S D.A QUAIDS model of need-based structure in U.S.personal consumption 2006-2012[J].Atlantic Economic Journal,2016,44(3):303-323.
[21]Dey M M.Analysis of demand for fish in Bangladesh[J].Aquaculture Economics and Management,2000,4(1/2):65-83.
[22]Garcia Y T,Dey M M,Nabarez S M.Demand for fish in the Philippines:A disaggregated analysis[J].Aquaculture Economics and Management,2005,9(1/2):141-168.
[23]Dey M M,Alam M F,Paraguas F J.A multistage budgeting approach to the analysis of demand for fish:An application to inland areas of Bangladesh[J].Marine Resource Economics,2011,26(1):35-58.
[24]迪顿,米尔鲍尔.经济学与消费者行为[M].龚志民,宋旺,解烜,等译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002.Deaton A,Muellbauer J.Economics and Consumer Behavior[M].Cambridge University Press,1980.
[25]吴蓓蓓,陈永福,于法稳.基于收入分层QUAIDS模型的广东省城镇居民家庭食品消费行为分析[J].中国农村观察,2012(4):59-69.Wu B B,Chen Y F,Yu F W.Food consumption behavior of urban residents in Guangdong Province-Based on a QUAIDS approach among different income groups[J].China Rural Survey,2012(4):59-69.
[26]吕开宇,张雪梅,邢郦.不同收入等级农村居民粮食消费的演变--基于住户收入分布函数的模拟分析[J].农业经济问题,2012(6):44-48,111.LüK Y,Zhang X M,Xing L.Evolution of grain consumption among groups with different income level:Based on stimulation of household income distribution in rural China[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2012(6):44-48,111.
[27]刘华,钟甫宁.食物消费与需求弹性--基于城镇居民微观数据的实证研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,9(3):36-43.Liu H,Zhong F N.Food consumption and demand elasticity:Evidence from household survey data[J].Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition),2009,9(3):36-43.
[28]郑志浩,高颖,赵殷钰.收入增长对城镇居民食物消费模式的影响[J].经济学(季刊),2016,15(1):263-288.Zheng Z H,Gao Y,Zhao Y Y.Impact of income growth on food consumption patterns in urban China[J].China Economic Quarterly,2016,15(1):263-288.
[29]Dong F.The outlook for Asian dairy markets:The role of demographics,incomes,and prices[J].Food Policy,2006,31(3):260-271.
[30]Abullahi M K,Kyiogwom U B,Tanko L,et al.Consumption preferences for dairy products in an urban setting:A study of Sokoto metropolis[J].International Journal of Innovative Research&Development,2014,11(3):308-314.
[31]Fuller F,Huang J K,Ma H Y,et al.Got milk?The rapid rise of China’s dairy sector and its future prospects[J].Food Policy,2006,31(3):201-215.