基于男同社交媒体的无锡市市区男男性行为者规模估计研究
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摘要
目的估计无锡市市区男男性行为者(MSM)规模,为艾滋病疫情估计提供依据。方法利用乘数法结合MSM交友软件估计无锡市市区男男性行为人群规模。通过男同社交媒体Blued后台统计连续一周内每天登录过软件的人数,从而获得目标人群数r;通过RDS方法招募研究对象并开展问卷调查,获得乘数m,由此计算MSM规模估计数N=r×m。结果无锡市市区MSM规模估计数为25 460人[95%可信区间(CI):24 915～26 032]。其中,常住的MSM 21 717人(95%CI=21 310～22 252),流动的MSM有3 743人(95%CI=3 259～4 226);城镇MSM 16 218人(95%CI=14 945～17 618),农村的MSM有9 242人(95%CI=8 529～9 929);自认为同性恋的MSM有14 970人(95%CI=13 774～16 269),自认为双性恋的MSM有8 427人(95%CI=7 587～9 344);为同性提供过商业性服务的MSM 2 521人(95%CI=1 986～3 183)。结论利用乘数法结合MSM社交媒体估计MSM的规模具有一定的可行性和可信性。
Objective To estimate the size of men who have sex with men(MSM) in Wuxi, China in order to provide evidence for AIDS prevention. Methods Multiplier method and mobile phone dating application were used to estimate the MSM size. The Blued software was used to calculate the number of MSM(r) logging each day of a week. Respondent driven sampling method was used to recruit MSM to complete a questionnaire to compute multiplier(m). So the MSM size was estimated by using calculation formula: N=r×m. Results The MSM size in Wuxi was about 25 460(95%CI: 24 915-26 032), among whom 21 717(95%CI: 21 310-22 252) were permanent residents and 3 743(95%CI: 3 259-4 226) migrants. A number of 16 218(95%CI: 14 945-17 618) were urban residents and 9242(95%CI: 8 529-9 929) rural ones. About 14 970(95%CI: 13 774-16 269) were engaged in homosexual intercourse compared to 8 427(95%CI: 7 587-9 344) in bisexual intercourse. A total of 2 521(95%CI: 1 986-3 183) MSM provided commercial sexual services for the same sex. Conclusion It is practicable and credible to use multiplier method and mobile phone dating application to estimate the MSM size.
Objective To estimate the size of men who have sex with men(MSM) in Wuxi, China in order to provide evidence for AIDS prevention. Methods Multiplier method and mobile phone dating application were used to estimate the MSM size. The Blued software was used to calculate the number of MSM(r) logging each day of a week. Respondent driven sampling method was used to recruit MSM to complete a questionnaire to compute multiplier(m). So the MSM size was estimated by using calculation formula: N=r×m. Results The MSM size in Wuxi was about 25 460(95%CI: 24 915-26 032), among whom 21 717(95%CI: 21 310-22 252) were permanent residents and 3 743(95%CI: 3 259-4 226) migrants. A number of 16 218(95%CI: 14 945-17 618) were urban residents and 9242(95%CI: 8 529-9 929) rural ones. About 14 970(95%CI: 13 774-16 269) were engaged in homosexual intercourse compared to 8 427(95%CI: 7 587-9 344) in bisexual intercourse. A total of 2 521(95%CI: 1 986-3 183) MSM provided commercial sexual services for the same sex. Conclusion It is practicable and credible to use multiplier method and mobile phone dating application to estimate the MSM size.
引文
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[2] Meng X,Zou H,Beck J,et al.Trends in HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in China 2003-09:a systematic review and meta-analysis[J].Sex Health,2013,10(3):211-219.
[3] 中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心性病控制中心.2017年12月全国艾滋病性病疫情[J].中国艾滋病性病,2018,24(2):111.
[4] 金莹莹,徐杰,江震,等.应用交友软件调查大学生男男性行为者HIV检测现状及相关因素[J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(5):629-633.
[5] Cao BL,Zhao PP,Bien C,et al.Linking young men who have sex with men (YMSM) to STI physicians:a nationwide cross-sectional survey in China[J].BMC Infec Dis,2018,38(1):228.
[6] 李希,曹卫华.艾滋病高危人群基数估计方法进展[J].中华流行病学杂志,2007,28(11):1138-1140.
[7] 张万宏,石萍,石卫东,等.男性双性性行为者性取向及群体性行为特征分析[J].华中科技大学学报(医学版),2012,41(3):375-378.
[8] 蔡于茂,宋亚娟,刘惠,等.2011—2015年深圳市男男性行为者提供商业性服务状况及影响因素调查[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,50(11):943-948.
[9] 程伟彬,钟斐,文荒,等.广州市男男商业性服务人群HIV、梅毒感染及AIDS相关行为调查[J].中华预防医学杂志,2010,44(11):1027-1031.
[10] Yan H,Ding Y,Wong FY,et a1.Epidemiological and molecular characteristics of HIV infection among money boys and general men who have sex with men in Shanghai,China[J].Infect Genet Evol,2015(31):135-141.
[11] Wang LH,Yan J,Yang GL,et a1.Prevalence of consistent condom use with various types of sex partners and associated factors among money boys in Changsha,China[J].J Sex Med,2015,12(4):936-945.
[12] 单飞,罗丹,黄竹林,等.应用手机交友软件估计长沙市男男性行为人群规模[J].中国公共卫生杂志,2017,33(3):349-351.
[13] 方鹏骞,孙杨,李仕梁,等.男男同性恋人群规模估计方法及外推初步研究[J].复旦学报(医学版),2008,35(2):236-239.
[14] 舒伟萍,尹鹤峰,袁家麟,等.乘数法在男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用[J].医学信息,2015,28 (32):146.
[2] Meng X,Zou H,Beck J,et al.Trends in HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in China 2003-09:a systematic review and meta-analysis[J].Sex Health,2013,10(3):211-219.
[3] 中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心性病控制中心.2017年12月全国艾滋病性病疫情[J].中国艾滋病性病,2018,24(2):111.
[4] 金莹莹,徐杰,江震,等.应用交友软件调查大学生男男性行为者HIV检测现状及相关因素[J].中华流行病学杂志,2017,38(5):629-633.
[5] Cao BL,Zhao PP,Bien C,et al.Linking young men who have sex with men (YMSM) to STI physicians:a nationwide cross-sectional survey in China[J].BMC Infec Dis,2018,38(1):228.
[6] 李希,曹卫华.艾滋病高危人群基数估计方法进展[J].中华流行病学杂志,2007,28(11):1138-1140.
[7] 张万宏,石萍,石卫东,等.男性双性性行为者性取向及群体性行为特征分析[J].华中科技大学学报(医学版),2012,41(3):375-378.
[8] 蔡于茂,宋亚娟,刘惠,等.2011—2015年深圳市男男性行为者提供商业性服务状况及影响因素调查[J].中华流行病学杂志,2016,50(11):943-948.
[9] 程伟彬,钟斐,文荒,等.广州市男男商业性服务人群HIV、梅毒感染及AIDS相关行为调查[J].中华预防医学杂志,2010,44(11):1027-1031.
[10] Yan H,Ding Y,Wong FY,et a1.Epidemiological and molecular characteristics of HIV infection among money boys and general men who have sex with men in Shanghai,China[J].Infect Genet Evol,2015(31):135-141.
[11] Wang LH,Yan J,Yang GL,et a1.Prevalence of consistent condom use with various types of sex partners and associated factors among money boys in Changsha,China[J].J Sex Med,2015,12(4):936-945.
[12] 单飞,罗丹,黄竹林,等.应用手机交友软件估计长沙市男男性行为人群规模[J].中国公共卫生杂志,2017,33(3):349-351.
[13] 方鹏骞,孙杨,李仕梁,等.男男同性恋人群规模估计方法及外推初步研究[J].复旦学报(医学版),2008,35(2):236-239.
[14] 舒伟萍,尹鹤峰,袁家麟,等.乘数法在男男性行为人群规模估计中的应用[J].医学信息,2015,28 (32):146.