动量与能量守恒下的交叉口安全评价模型
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摘要
交通冲突是导致交叉口交通事故的关键因素,是评价交叉口安全水平的重要研究内容。在交通冲突技术的基础上,创新性地引入动量守恒和能量守恒理论建立交叉口安全评价模型。首先,基于合理假设利用所引入理论建立冲突危险性、冲突严重性和权重系数对应的元素、向量和矩阵的求解模型,并对模型进行深入解释,分析表明模型能够合理解释实际现象。其次,根据车道数和车头时距建立修正冲突数的元素、向量和矩阵的求解模型。最后,提出不同安全水平评价层级,并基于元素、向量以及矩阵建立了表征各层级冲突安全水平指标的求解模型,同时提出将危险度和严重度分别作为控制性指标与参考性指标。
Being one of key intersection crash contributing factors, traffic conflict is important component in intersection level of safety evaluation. Based on traffic conflict analysis techniques, this paper innovatively introduces an intersection safety evaluation model developed by dynamic energy conversion principle. The model structured by vector and matrix is first developed by the reasonable assumptions and the analysis of the risk and severity of traffic conflict as well as their corresponding weighted impact factor to different elements. The model's capability to explain the real world situations is verified. The paper explains how to define number of conflicts based on number of lanes and gap between vehicles, and how to get the solution to the matrix model. Finally, the paper proposes level of safety evaluation framework and the modeling details on how to use the risk and severity of conflict as control and referencing indexes in assessing various intersection safety based on dynamic energy conversion theory.
Being one of key intersection crash contributing factors, traffic conflict is important component in intersection level of safety evaluation. Based on traffic conflict analysis techniques, this paper innovatively introduces an intersection safety evaluation model developed by dynamic energy conversion principle. The model structured by vector and matrix is first developed by the reasonable assumptions and the analysis of the risk and severity of traffic conflict as well as their corresponding weighted impact factor to different elements. The model's capability to explain the real world situations is verified. The paper explains how to define number of conflicts based on number of lanes and gap between vehicles, and how to get the solution to the matrix model. Finally, the paper proposes level of safety evaluation framework and the modeling details on how to use the risk and severity of conflict as control and referencing indexes in assessing various intersection safety based on dynamic energy conversion theory.
引文
[1]世界卫生组织.道路安全全球现状报告2015[R].日内瓦:世界卫生组织,2015.
[2]克列斯特海顿.交通冲突技术[M].张苏,译.成都:西南交通大学出版社,1994.
[3] Javid M, Seneviartne P N. Applying Conflict Technique to Pedestrian Safety Evaluation[J].ITE Journal, 1991, 61(3):21-26.
[4] Hyden C. A Traffic Conflict Technique for Examining Urban Intersection Problems[C]//Peterson B E. Proceedings:First Workshop on Traffic Conflicts, Australia:APRB, Group Ltd., 1977:87-98.
[5] Matthew P, Alex R P, Michael R S. Conflict Theory and Racial Profiling:An Empirical Analysis of Police Traffic Stops Data[J]. Journal of Criminal Justice, 2003, 31(1):1-11.
[6] Brian L A, Tom B S, Peter J C. Analysis of Traffic Conflict and Collision[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1978(667):67-74.
[7]张苏.中国交通冲突技术[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1998.
[8]刘小明,段海林.平面交叉口交通冲突技术标准化研究[J].公路交通科技, 1997(3):29-34.Liu Xiaoming, Duan Hailin. Research on Standard Program of Traffic Conflict Techniques at Intersections[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Reseach and Development,1997(3):29-34.
[9] Zegeer C V, Robert C D. Traffic Conflict as a Diagnostic Tool in Highway Safety[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1978(667):48-57.
[10] Ezra H, Per G. Research into the Validity of the Traffic Conflict Technique[J]. Accident Annual&Prevent, 1986, 18(6):471-481.
[11] Salman N K, Al-Maita K J. Safety Evaluation at Three-Leg, Unsignalized Intersections by Traffic Conflict Technique[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1995(1485):177-185.
[12] Gettman D, Pu L, Sayed, et al. Surrogate Safety Assessment Model and Validation:Final Report[R]. Washington DC:Federal Highway Administration, 2008.
[13] Hussein A, Ewadh. Traffic Conflict Technique to Predict Countermeasure Effectiveness at 3-Legs Signalized Intersections[J].Journal of Kerbala University, 2008, 6(3):9-15.
[14] Lyaz S. Validation and Improvement of RearEnd Traffic Conflict Model for Safety Evaluation of Coordinated Signal Systems[D].Dhahran:King Fahd University, 1997.
[15] Sayed T. Estimating the Safety of Unsignalized Intersections Using Traffic Conflicts[J].Transportation Research Record, 1997(7):230-235.
[16]陈曦.基于交通冲突定量分析的交叉口危险度模型研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.Chen Xi. Research on the Intersection Risk Degree Model Based on Traffic Conflict Quantitative Analysis[D]. Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University, 2012.
[17]成卫,王贵勇.基于交通冲突技术的交叉口安全状况灰色聚类评价研究[J].昆明理工大学学报(理工版),2005(3):106-110.Cheng Wei, Wang Guiyong. Gray Cluster Evaluation of Safety at Intersections by Traffic Conflict Technique[J]. Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Science and Technology), 2005(3):106-110.
[18]张亚平,张海波.交叉口右转机动车与行人交通冲突安全评价[J].公路与汽运,2016(2):62-65.
[19] Sayed T, Zein S. Traffic Conflict Standards for Intersections[J]. Transportation Planning and Technology, 1999, 22(4):309-323.
[20] Alhajyaseen W K M. The Development of Conflict Index for the Safety Assessment of Intersections Considering Crash Probability and Severity[J]. Procedia Computer Science,2014, 32:364-371.
[21]张学亮,邓卫,郭唐仪.基于冲突率的交叉口交通安全评价方法研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2007,5(1):85-90.Zhang Xueliang, Deng Wei, Guo Tangyi. Development of Traffic Safety Evaluation Method Based on TCT at Grade Crossings[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2007, 5(1):85-90.
[22]孙林.基于交通冲突技术的城市交叉口交通安全评价方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2015.Sun Lin. Study on Evaluation Method of Urban Intersection Traffic Safety Based on Traffic Conflict Technique[D]. Xi'an:Chang'an University, 2015.
[23]付锐,魏朗,骆勇,等.郑州黄河公路大桥交通安全冲突技术的研究[J].中国公路学报,2000,13(3):86-88.Fu Rui, Wei Lang, Luo Yong, et al. A Study of TCT of the Zhengzhou Yellow River Highway Bridge[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2000, 13(3):86-88.
[24]葛兴,姜波.基于指标定权灰色聚类的公路平交口安全评价[J].交通信息与安全,2014,32(6):159-165.Ge Xing, Jiang Bo. A Safety Evaluation Method for Highway Intersections Using Weighted Gray Cluster[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2014, 32(6):159-165.
[25]王雪松,罗楝.信号控制交叉口交通冲突特征与影响因素[J].城市交通,2016,14(6):60-66.Wang Xuesong, Luo Lian. Traffic Conflict Characteristics and Influential Factors at Signalized Intersections[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2016, 14(6):60-66.
[26]郭延永,刘攀,徐铖铖,等.基于交通冲突模型的信号交叉口右转设施安全分析[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(11):139-146.Guo Yanyong, Liu Pan, Xu Chengcheng, et al. Safety Analysis of Right-Turn Facility at Signalized Intersection Using Traffic Conflict Model[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2016, 29(11):139-146.
[27]成卫,王贵勇.基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统的交叉口交通冲突数预测[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(7):115-117.Cheng Wei, Wang Guiyong. Prediction of Traffic Conflicts at Intersection Based on Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2005, 22(7):115-117.
[28]肖莉英.基于TCT的城市道路平面交叉口安全评价研究[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2015.Xiao Liying. Research on The Safety Evaluation of Urban Road Plane Intersection Based on Traffic Conflict Technique[D]. Chongqing:Chongqing Jiaotong University, 2015.
[2]克列斯特海顿.交通冲突技术[M].张苏,译.成都:西南交通大学出版社,1994.
[3] Javid M, Seneviartne P N. Applying Conflict Technique to Pedestrian Safety Evaluation[J].ITE Journal, 1991, 61(3):21-26.
[4] Hyden C. A Traffic Conflict Technique for Examining Urban Intersection Problems[C]//Peterson B E. Proceedings:First Workshop on Traffic Conflicts, Australia:APRB, Group Ltd., 1977:87-98.
[5] Matthew P, Alex R P, Michael R S. Conflict Theory and Racial Profiling:An Empirical Analysis of Police Traffic Stops Data[J]. Journal of Criminal Justice, 2003, 31(1):1-11.
[6] Brian L A, Tom B S, Peter J C. Analysis of Traffic Conflict and Collision[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1978(667):67-74.
[7]张苏.中国交通冲突技术[M].成都:西南交通大学出版社,1998.
[8]刘小明,段海林.平面交叉口交通冲突技术标准化研究[J].公路交通科技, 1997(3):29-34.Liu Xiaoming, Duan Hailin. Research on Standard Program of Traffic Conflict Techniques at Intersections[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Reseach and Development,1997(3):29-34.
[9] Zegeer C V, Robert C D. Traffic Conflict as a Diagnostic Tool in Highway Safety[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1978(667):48-57.
[10] Ezra H, Per G. Research into the Validity of the Traffic Conflict Technique[J]. Accident Annual&Prevent, 1986, 18(6):471-481.
[11] Salman N K, Al-Maita K J. Safety Evaluation at Three-Leg, Unsignalized Intersections by Traffic Conflict Technique[J]. Transportation Research Record, 1995(1485):177-185.
[12] Gettman D, Pu L, Sayed, et al. Surrogate Safety Assessment Model and Validation:Final Report[R]. Washington DC:Federal Highway Administration, 2008.
[13] Hussein A, Ewadh. Traffic Conflict Technique to Predict Countermeasure Effectiveness at 3-Legs Signalized Intersections[J].Journal of Kerbala University, 2008, 6(3):9-15.
[14] Lyaz S. Validation and Improvement of RearEnd Traffic Conflict Model for Safety Evaluation of Coordinated Signal Systems[D].Dhahran:King Fahd University, 1997.
[15] Sayed T. Estimating the Safety of Unsignalized Intersections Using Traffic Conflicts[J].Transportation Research Record, 1997(7):230-235.
[16]陈曦.基于交通冲突定量分析的交叉口危险度模型研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.Chen Xi. Research on the Intersection Risk Degree Model Based on Traffic Conflict Quantitative Analysis[D]. Beijing:Beijing Jiaotong University, 2012.
[17]成卫,王贵勇.基于交通冲突技术的交叉口安全状况灰色聚类评价研究[J].昆明理工大学学报(理工版),2005(3):106-110.Cheng Wei, Wang Guiyong. Gray Cluster Evaluation of Safety at Intersections by Traffic Conflict Technique[J]. Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Science and Technology), 2005(3):106-110.
[18]张亚平,张海波.交叉口右转机动车与行人交通冲突安全评价[J].公路与汽运,2016(2):62-65.
[19] Sayed T, Zein S. Traffic Conflict Standards for Intersections[J]. Transportation Planning and Technology, 1999, 22(4):309-323.
[20] Alhajyaseen W K M. The Development of Conflict Index for the Safety Assessment of Intersections Considering Crash Probability and Severity[J]. Procedia Computer Science,2014, 32:364-371.
[21]张学亮,邓卫,郭唐仪.基于冲突率的交叉口交通安全评价方法研究[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2007,5(1):85-90.Zhang Xueliang, Deng Wei, Guo Tangyi. Development of Traffic Safety Evaluation Method Based on TCT at Grade Crossings[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2007, 5(1):85-90.
[22]孙林.基于交通冲突技术的城市交叉口交通安全评价方法研究[D].西安:长安大学,2015.Sun Lin. Study on Evaluation Method of Urban Intersection Traffic Safety Based on Traffic Conflict Technique[D]. Xi'an:Chang'an University, 2015.
[23]付锐,魏朗,骆勇,等.郑州黄河公路大桥交通安全冲突技术的研究[J].中国公路学报,2000,13(3):86-88.Fu Rui, Wei Lang, Luo Yong, et al. A Study of TCT of the Zhengzhou Yellow River Highway Bridge[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2000, 13(3):86-88.
[24]葛兴,姜波.基于指标定权灰色聚类的公路平交口安全评价[J].交通信息与安全,2014,32(6):159-165.Ge Xing, Jiang Bo. A Safety Evaluation Method for Highway Intersections Using Weighted Gray Cluster[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2014, 32(6):159-165.
[25]王雪松,罗楝.信号控制交叉口交通冲突特征与影响因素[J].城市交通,2016,14(6):60-66.Wang Xuesong, Luo Lian. Traffic Conflict Characteristics and Influential Factors at Signalized Intersections[J]. Urban Transport of China, 2016, 14(6):60-66.
[26]郭延永,刘攀,徐铖铖,等.基于交通冲突模型的信号交叉口右转设施安全分析[J].中国公路学报,2016,29(11):139-146.Guo Yanyong, Liu Pan, Xu Chengcheng, et al. Safety Analysis of Right-Turn Facility at Signalized Intersection Using Traffic Conflict Model[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2016, 29(11):139-146.
[27]成卫,王贵勇.基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统的交叉口交通冲突数预测[J].公路交通科技,2005,22(7):115-117.Cheng Wei, Wang Guiyong. Prediction of Traffic Conflicts at Intersection Based on Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System[J].Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2005, 22(7):115-117.
[28]肖莉英.基于TCT的城市道路平面交叉口安全评价研究[D].重庆:重庆交通大学,2015.Xiao Liying. Research on The Safety Evaluation of Urban Road Plane Intersection Based on Traffic Conflict Technique[D]. Chongqing:Chongqing Jiaotong University, 2015.