融合节点脆弱性评价与边权值因子的改进供应商网络风险传播模型及其仿真
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摘要
为了研究多级供应商网络的风险演化机制,将供应商网络转化为有向加权网络,在此基础上将网络节点脆弱性作为评价其自身治愈能力的重要因子,并将相连节点之间的边权值作为影响传播率的主要因素,以此改进传统的传染病模型,使其更加适合于供应商网络。通过案例发现,企业自身治愈率比传播率对风险传播的影响更大,应加强企业自身的抵御风险能力,降低其脆弱性。
To research the risk evolution mechanism of multi-level supplier network,the supplier network was transformed into a directed weighted network.On this basis,the node vulnerability was taken as an important factor to evaluate itself cure rate and the edge weights among nodes were also taken as an important factor to influence the propagation rate,so as to improve the traditional epidemic model to make it more suitable for the network of suppliers.The risk transmission rate and itself cure rate of enterprises were analyzed by simulation,and the key points of risk management would be find out to adjust the network structure,so that the damage of the network risk could be reduced effectively.
To research the risk evolution mechanism of multi-level supplier network,the supplier network was transformed into a directed weighted network.On this basis,the node vulnerability was taken as an important factor to evaluate itself cure rate and the edge weights among nodes were also taken as an important factor to influence the propagation rate,so as to improve the traditional epidemic model to make it more suitable for the network of suppliers.The risk transmission rate and itself cure rate of enterprises were analyzed by simulation,and the key points of risk management would be find out to adjust the network structure,so that the damage of the network risk could be reduced effectively.
引文
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[2]FU Xinyi,CHEN Tinggui.Supply chain network optimization based on fuzzy multiobjective centralized decision-making model[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2017,2017:1-11.
[3]CHENG Guoping,SHENG Gangbing.Construction and system exploration of supply chain risk management model[J].Consumption Guide,2009,2(6):114-115(in Chinese).[程国平,盛刚兵.供应链风险管理模型构建与体系探究[J].消费导刊,2009,2(6):114-115.]
[4]XUE Weixia,SUN Jianjing.Risk management strategy selection of supply network based on feedback mechanism[J].Research Management Research,2013,18(20):218-221(in Chinese).[薛伟霞,孙见荆.基于反馈机制的供应网络风险管理策略选择[J].科研管理研究,2013,18(20):218-221.]
[5]CHEN Pingshun,WU M T.A modified failure mode and effects analysis method for supplier selection problems in the supply chain risk environment:a case study[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2013,66(4):634-642.
[6]ZIMMER K,FRHLING M,BREUN P,et al.Assessing social risks of global supply chains:aquantitative analytical approach and its application to supplier selection in the German automotive industry[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,149(4):96-109.
[7]QIN Sheng.Research on supply chain risk based on complexity perspective[M].Nanjing:Nanjing University,2014(in Chinese).[秦盛.基于复杂性视角的供应链风险研究[M].南京:南京大学,2014.]
[8]PAUTASSO M,JEGER J M.Epidemic threshold and network structure:the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in small-size directed networks[J].Ecological Complexity,2008,5(1):1-8.
[9]XIA Chengyi,LIU Zhongxin,CHEN Zengqiang.Epidemic spreading behavior in local-world evolving networks[J].Progress in Natural Science,2008,18(6):763-768.
[10]KITCHOVITCH S,LIP.Risk perception and disease spread on social networks[J].Procedia Computer Science,2010,1(1):2345-2354.
[11]KRAUSE A,GIANSANTE S.Interbank lending and the spread of bank failures:a network model of systemic risk[J].Journal of Economic Behavior&Organization,2012,83(3):583-608.
[12]QIAN ying,ZHANG Nan,ZHAO Laijun.Study on the propagation rule of micro-blog public opinion[J].Journal of the China Society for Scientific and Technical Information,2012,31(12):1299-1304(in Chinese).[钱颖,张楠,赵来军.微博舆情传播规律研究[J].情报学报,2012,31(12):1299-1304.]
[13]WANG Y,XIAO G.Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks[J].Physics Letters A,2012,376(42/43):2689-2696.
[14]YANG Luxing,YANG Xiaofan,LIU Jiming,et al.Epidemics of computer viruses:a complex-network approach[J].Applied Mathematics and Computation,2013,219(16):8705-8717.
[15]ZHANG Feng,YANG Yu,JIA Jianguo.Vulnerability analysis method for collaborative production network based on undirected weighted graph[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2012,23(10):1216-1220(in Chinese).[张峰,杨育,贾建国.基于无向加权图的协同生产网络脆弱性分析方法[J].中国机械工程,2012,23(10):1216-1220.]
[16]GUO Mingfang.Simulation research on enterprise risk communication in supply chain environment[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2014(in Chinese).[郭明芳.供应链环境下企业风险传播仿真研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2014.]
[17]YANG kang,ZHANG Zhongyi.Fuzzy risk assessment of supply chain network considering node degree[J].Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University,2013,37(6):107-111(in Chinese).[杨康,张仲义.考虑节点度的供应链网络风险模糊评估[J].北京交通大学学报,2013,37(6):107-111.]
[18]CHEN Weijie,ZOU Yan.An integrated method for supplier selection from the perspective of risk aversion[J].Applied Soft Computing,2017,54(1):449-455.
[19]LI Gang.Research on modeling and performance analysis of supply chain based on complex network[J].Hangzhou:Zhejiang University,2012(in Chinese).[李刚.基于复杂网络的供应链建模与性能分析研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2012.]
[20]XU Xing,LI Huaqiang,ZHAO Xiangyun,et al.Comprehensive vulnerability assessment of nodes based on running state and network structure[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(3):731-734(in Chinese).[徐行,李华强,赵祥云,黄昭蒙.基于运行状态和网络结构的节点综合脆弱性评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(3):731-734.]