热带北大西洋海温异常对南海夏季风的影响及其机理
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摘要
利用HadiSST资料、CMAP降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了热带北大西洋(Northern Tropical Atlantic,NTA)海表温度异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)与南海夏季风(South China Sea Summer Monsoon,SCSSM)的联系及可能机制。观测分析表明,夏季NTA海温异常与SCSSM存在显著的负相关关系;NTA海温正异常时,北半球副热带东太平洋至大西洋区域存在气旋式环流异常,有利于热带大西洋(热带中太平洋)地区产生异常上升(下沉)运动,使得西北太平洋地区出现反气旋环流异常,该反气旋环流异常西侧的南风异常使得SCSSM增强。利用春季NTA指数、东南印度洋海温异常指数、北太平洋海温异常指数、南太平洋经向模(South Pacific Ocean Meridional Dipole,SPOMD)及Niňo3.4指数构建了SCSSM季节预测模型,预测模型后报与观测的SCSSM指数的相关系数为0.81,表明该模型可较好预测SCSSM。
This paper analyzes the connection and possible mechanism between sea surface temperature anomaly(SS-TA)in the northern tropical Atlantic(NTA)and the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)using HadiS-ST data,CMAP precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The observation analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between NTA SSTA and SCSSMin summer.Positive NTA SSTA can cause cyclonic circulation anomalies in the subtropical East Pacific to Atlantic region of the Northern Hemisphere,which is conducive to abnormal ascending(descending)motion in the tropical Atlantic(tropical central Pacific)region.The motions can cause the anomalous anticyclone circulation in the northwestern Pacific region,and the south wind anomalies on the west side of the anticyclone circulation anomaly enhance the SCSSM.The SCSSMseasonal prediction model is constructed by using spring NTA index,SST anomaly index in southeastern Indian Ocean,SST anomaly index in North Pacific,South Pacific Ocean Meridional Dipole(SPOMD),and Ni?o3.4 index.Correlation coefficient between the observed SCSSMindex and the hindcast of the model is 0.81,showing that the model can predict SCSSMwell.
This paper analyzes the connection and possible mechanism between sea surface temperature anomaly(SS-TA)in the northern tropical Atlantic(NTA)and the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)using HadiS-ST data,CMAP precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The observation analysis shows that there is a significant negative correlation between NTA SSTA and SCSSMin summer.Positive NTA SSTA can cause cyclonic circulation anomalies in the subtropical East Pacific to Atlantic region of the Northern Hemisphere,which is conducive to abnormal ascending(descending)motion in the tropical Atlantic(tropical central Pacific)region.The motions can cause the anomalous anticyclone circulation in the northwestern Pacific region,and the south wind anomalies on the west side of the anticyclone circulation anomaly enhance the SCSSM.The SCSSMseasonal prediction model is constructed by using spring NTA index,SST anomaly index in southeastern Indian Ocean,SST anomaly index in North Pacific,South Pacific Ocean Meridional Dipole(SPOMD),and Ni?o3.4 index.Correlation coefficient between the observed SCSSMindex and the hindcast of the model is 0.81,showing that the model can predict SCSSMwell.
引文
Alexander M A,Scott J D,2002.The influence of ENSO on air-sea interaction in the Atlantic[J].Geophys Res Lett,29(14).doi:10.1029/2001GL014347.
Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A,et al.,2007.El Niňo Modoki and its possible teleconnection[J].J Geophys Res,112(C11):C11007.
Chen H C,Chang T C,Hsu H H,2014.Enhanced relationship between the tropical Atlantic SST and the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high after the early 1980s[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,119(7):3715-3722.
Chen H C,Lee M Y,Hsu H H,et al.,2015.Tropical SST forcing on the anomalous WNP subtropical high during July-August 2010 and the record-high SST in the tropical Atlantic[J].Clim Dyn,45(3/4):633-650.
Enfield D B,Mayer D A,1997.Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niňo-Southern Oscillation[J].J Geophys Res,102(C1):929-945.
高辉,朱艳峰,2009.2007年南海夏季风爆发前后大气环流的非典型性突变特征[J].大气科学学报,32(4):467-473.Gao H,Zhu Y F,2009.Untypical abrupt change features of the general circulation during onset period of South China Sea summer monsoonin 2007[J].Trans Atmos Sci,32(4):467-473.(in Chinese).
Gill A E,1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,106(449):447-462.
Ham Y G,Kug J S,Park J Y,et al.,2013.Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niňo/Southern Oscillation events[J].Nature Geosci,6(2):112-116.
Huo L,Guo P,Hameed S N,et al.,2015.The role of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in modulating western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis[J].Geophys Res Lett,42(7):2378-2384.
霍利微,郭品文,张福颖,等,2016.夏季热带北大西洋海温异常对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响[J].大气科学学报,39(1):55-63.Huo L W,Guo P W,Zhang F Y,et al.,2016.Impact of summer tropical Atlantic SST anomaly on western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(1):55-63.(in Chinese).
Hurrell J W,1995.Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation:regional temperatures and precipitation[J].Science,269(5224):676-679.
Jin D C,Huo L W,2018.Influence of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3296.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77:437-471.
Kao H Y,Yu J Y,2009.Contrasting eastern-pacific and central-pacific types of ENSO[J].J Climate,22(3):615-632.
Linkin M E,Nigam S,2008.The North Pacific Oscillation-West Pacific teleconnection pattern:mature-phase structure and winter impacts[J].J Climate,21(9):1979-1997.
Matsuno T,1966.Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,44:25-43.
Pan L L,2005.Observed positive feedback between the NAO and the North Atlantic SSTA tripole[J].Geophys Res Lett,32,L06707.doi:10.1029/2005GL022427.
Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.,2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].J Geophys Res,108:4407.
Rong X Y,Zhang R H,Li T,2010.Impacts of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Indo-East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,55(22):2458-2468.
Saravanan R,Chang P,2000.Interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niňo-Southern Oscillation[J].J Climate,13:2177-2194.
陶丽,靳甜甜,濮梅娟,等,2013.西北太平洋热带气旋气候变化的若干进展[J].大气科学学报,36(4):504-512.Tao L,Jin T T,Pu M J,et al.,2013.Review of the researches on climatological variations of tropical cyclones over western North Pacific[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(4):504-512.(in Chinese).
Tao S,Chen L X,1987.A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China[M]//Chang C P,Krishnamurti T N.Monsoon meteorology.New York:Oxford University Press:60-92.
Walker G T,Bliss E W,1932.World weather V[J].Mem Roy Meteorol Soc,4:53-84.
Wallace M J,Gutzler D S,1981.Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].Mon Wea Rev,109:784-812.
Wang B,1994.Climatic regimes of tropical convection and rainfall[J].J Climate,7:1109-1118.
Wang B,Lin H,2002.Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon[J].J Climate,15(4):386-398.
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H,2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J].J Climate,13:1517-1536.
Wang B,Huang F,Wu Z,et al.,2009.Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon:a review[J].Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,47(1):15-37.
王永波,施能,2001.近45 a冬季北大西洋涛动异常与我国气候的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,24(3):315-322.Wang Y B,Shi N,2001.Relation of north Atlantic oscillation anomaly to China climate during 1951—1995[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,24(3):315-322.(in Chinese).
Wu L,Wen Z P,Huang R H,2012.Possible linkage between the monsoon trough variability and the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Mon Wea Rev,140:140-150.
Xie P,Arkin P A,1997.Global precipitation:a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs[J].Bull Amer MeteorSoc,78:2539-2558.
Xie S P,Philander S G H,1994.A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific[J].Tellus A,46:340-350.doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-1-00001.x.
Xie S P,Kaiming H,Hafner J,2009.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niňo[J].J Climate,22(3):730-747.
Yang J,Liu Q,Xie S P,et al.,2007.Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon[J].Geophys Res Lett,34(2).
Yim S Y,Wang B,Xing W,2014.Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model[J].Clim Dyn,43(7/8):1883-1891.
张静,朱伟军,李忠贤,等,2007.北太平洋涛动与淮河流域夏季降水异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,30(4):546-550.Zhang J,Zhu W J,Li Z X,et al.,2007.Relationship between winter North Pacific oscillations and summer precipitation anomalies in the Huaihe River Basin[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,30(4):546-550.(in Chinese).
郑彬,施能,2006.南海夏季风对华南夏季降水年代际变化的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,29(4):477-483.Zheng B,Shi N,2006.Effects of south China Sea summer monsoon on the interdecadal variability of summer rainfall over south China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,29(4):477-483.(in Chinese).
Zhou W,Chan J C L,2007.ENSO and the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[J].Int J Climatol,27(2):157-167.
朱伟军,潘佳,周兵,等,2016.2011年南海夏季风爆发过程及其与长江中下游梅雨的联系[J].大气科学学报,39(1):37-45.Zhu W J,Pan J,Zhou B,2016.Onset process of South China Sea summer monsoon in 2011 and its relationship with Meiyu over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(1):37-45.(in Chinese).
Ashok K,Behera S K,Rao S A,et al.,2007.El Niňo Modoki and its possible teleconnection[J].J Geophys Res,112(C11):C11007.
Chen H C,Chang T C,Hsu H H,2014.Enhanced relationship between the tropical Atlantic SST and the summertime western North Pacific subtropical high after the early 1980s[J].J Geophys Res Atmos,119(7):3715-3722.
Chen H C,Lee M Y,Hsu H H,et al.,2015.Tropical SST forcing on the anomalous WNP subtropical high during July-August 2010 and the record-high SST in the tropical Atlantic[J].Clim Dyn,45(3/4):633-650.
Enfield D B,Mayer D A,1997.Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niňo-Southern Oscillation[J].J Geophys Res,102(C1):929-945.
高辉,朱艳峰,2009.2007年南海夏季风爆发前后大气环流的非典型性突变特征[J].大气科学学报,32(4):467-473.Gao H,Zhu Y F,2009.Untypical abrupt change features of the general circulation during onset period of South China Sea summer monsoonin 2007[J].Trans Atmos Sci,32(4):467-473.(in Chinese).
Gill A E,1980.Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,106(449):447-462.
Ham Y G,Kug J S,Park J Y,et al.,2013.Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niňo/Southern Oscillation events[J].Nature Geosci,6(2):112-116.
Huo L,Guo P,Hameed S N,et al.,2015.The role of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in modulating western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis[J].Geophys Res Lett,42(7):2378-2384.
霍利微,郭品文,张福颖,等,2016.夏季热带北大西洋海温异常对西北太平洋热带气旋生成的影响[J].大气科学学报,39(1):55-63.Huo L W,Guo P W,Zhang F Y,et al.,2016.Impact of summer tropical Atlantic SST anomaly on western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(1):55-63.(in Chinese).
Hurrell J W,1995.Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation:regional temperatures and precipitation[J].Science,269(5224):676-679.
Jin D C,Huo L W,2018.Influence of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on the East Asian summer monsoon[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc.doi.org/10.1002/qj.3296.
Kalnay E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al.,1996.The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,77:437-471.
Kao H Y,Yu J Y,2009.Contrasting eastern-pacific and central-pacific types of ENSO[J].J Climate,22(3):615-632.
Linkin M E,Nigam S,2008.The North Pacific Oscillation-West Pacific teleconnection pattern:mature-phase structure and winter impacts[J].J Climate,21(9):1979-1997.
Matsuno T,1966.Quasi-geostrophic motions in the equatorial area[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,44:25-43.
Pan L L,2005.Observed positive feedback between the NAO and the North Atlantic SSTA tripole[J].Geophys Res Lett,32,L06707.doi:10.1029/2005GL022427.
Rayner N A,Parker D E,Horton E B,et al.,2003.Global analyses of sea surface temperature,sea ice,and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century[J].J Geophys Res,108:4407.
Rong X Y,Zhang R H,Li T,2010.Impacts of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on Indo-East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,55(22):2458-2468.
Saravanan R,Chang P,2000.Interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niňo-Southern Oscillation[J].J Climate,13:2177-2194.
陶丽,靳甜甜,濮梅娟,等,2013.西北太平洋热带气旋气候变化的若干进展[J].大气科学学报,36(4):504-512.Tao L,Jin T T,Pu M J,et al.,2013.Review of the researches on climatological variations of tropical cyclones over western North Pacific[J].Trans Atmos Sci,36(4):504-512.(in Chinese).
Tao S,Chen L X,1987.A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China[M]//Chang C P,Krishnamurti T N.Monsoon meteorology.New York:Oxford University Press:60-92.
Walker G T,Bliss E W,1932.World weather V[J].Mem Roy Meteorol Soc,4:53-84.
Wallace M J,Gutzler D S,1981.Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter[J].Mon Wea Rev,109:784-812.
Wang B,1994.Climatic regimes of tropical convection and rainfall[J].J Climate,7:1109-1118.
Wang B,Lin H,2002.Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon[J].J Climate,15(4):386-398.
Wang B,Wu R G,Fu X H,2000.Pacific-East Asian teleconnection:how does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J].J Climate,13:1517-1536.
Wang B,Huang F,Wu Z,et al.,2009.Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon:a review[J].Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,47(1):15-37.
王永波,施能,2001.近45 a冬季北大西洋涛动异常与我国气候的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,24(3):315-322.Wang Y B,Shi N,2001.Relation of north Atlantic oscillation anomaly to China climate during 1951—1995[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,24(3):315-322.(in Chinese).
Wu L,Wen Z P,Huang R H,2012.Possible linkage between the monsoon trough variability and the tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific[J].Mon Wea Rev,140:140-150.
Xie P,Arkin P A,1997.Global precipitation:a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical model outputs[J].Bull Amer MeteorSoc,78:2539-2558.
Xie S P,Philander S G H,1994.A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific[J].Tellus A,46:340-350.doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-1-00001.x.
Xie S P,Kaiming H,Hafner J,2009.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niňo[J].J Climate,22(3):730-747.
Yang J,Liu Q,Xie S P,et al.,2007.Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon[J].Geophys Res Lett,34(2).
Yim S Y,Wang B,Xing W,2014.Prediction of early summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical model[J].Clim Dyn,43(7/8):1883-1891.
张静,朱伟军,李忠贤,等,2007.北太平洋涛动与淮河流域夏季降水异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,30(4):546-550.Zhang J,Zhu W J,Li Z X,et al.,2007.Relationship between winter North Pacific oscillations and summer precipitation anomalies in the Huaihe River Basin[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,30(4):546-550.(in Chinese).
郑彬,施能,2006.南海夏季风对华南夏季降水年代际变化的影响[J].南京气象学院学报,29(4):477-483.Zheng B,Shi N,2006.Effects of south China Sea summer monsoon on the interdecadal variability of summer rainfall over south China[J].J Nanjing Inst Meteor,29(4):477-483.(in Chinese).
Zhou W,Chan J C L,2007.ENSO and the South China Sea summer monsoon onset[J].Int J Climatol,27(2):157-167.
朱伟军,潘佳,周兵,等,2016.2011年南海夏季风爆发过程及其与长江中下游梅雨的联系[J].大气科学学报,39(1):37-45.Zhu W J,Pan J,Zhou B,2016.Onset process of South China Sea summer monsoon in 2011 and its relationship with Meiyu over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River[J].Trans Atmos Sci,39(1):37-45.(in Chinese).